1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week due to the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The export of high - concentration caustic soda continued to be favorable, driving up the spot price of 32% caustic soda, and the basis of the main contract continued to converge. [8] - The domestic caustic soda supply increased as the load of chlor - alkali plants in North, Central, and East China increased, with the national average capacity utilization rate rising by 0.7% to 84.6%. The downstream demand was mixed, with the alumina operating rate decreasing by 0.24% to 82.48%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increasing by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remaining stable at 52.57%. [8] - The inventory of caustic soda plants increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons week - on - week, and the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased to 323 yuan/ton. [8] - The domestic chlor - alkali plant maintenance expectations are gradually being realized, and the export of 50% caustic soda is increasing. The spot supply and demand of caustic soda are acceptable, but the strong price of liquid chlorine may weaken the impact of chlor - alkali plant maintenance. The realization degree of caustic soda export benefits in the future may depend on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If the geopolitical situation in the Middle East further eases, the futures price is likely to decline to converge with the basis. In the short term, the SH2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2650 yuan/ton. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Price**: The SH2605 contract closed at 2442 yuan/ton, down 4.01% from last week. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2303 yuan/ton, up 6.97% from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 139 yuan/ton. [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84.6%. Demand was mixed with different changes in downstream operating rates. Inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, and the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong rose to 323 yuan/ton. [8] - **Outlook**: Short - term SH2605 contract to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2650 yuan/ton, depending on the Middle East geopolitical situation. [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of SH2605 fluctuated widely this week, and the position decreased. [9] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda**: The benchmark price was 737 yuan, and the converted - to - 100% price was 2303 yuan. [14] - **Henan 32% liquid caustic soda**: The market price was 752 yuan, and the converted - to - 100% price was 2350 yuan. [25] - **Inner Mongolia 32% liquid caustic soda**: The market price was 784 yuan, and the converted - to - 100% price was 2450 yuan. [30] - **Shandong 99% flake caustic soda and liquid chlorine**: The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda was 3300 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 275 yuan/ton. [35] - **Basis**: The negative basis of the 05 contract partially converged, and the number of registered warrants decreased week - on - week. [20] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Raw salt**: The price of northwest raw salt remained stable, and the price of Shandong raw salt decreased slightly. [40] - **Steam coal**: The price of 5500K steam coal in Qinhuangdao was 760 yuan/ton. [43] 3.3.2. Industry Chain - **Supply**: In February, the caustic soda output was 339.87 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.37%. The operating rate this week rose to 84.6%. [46] - **Demand** - **Alumina**: In February, the alumina output was 730.72 tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 82.48%. [51] - **Non - aluminum downstream**: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber this week was 89.36%. [55] - **Prices**: The alumina price increased month - on - month, and the viscose staple fiber price remained stable. [58] - **Import and Export** - **Import**: In January, the caustic soda import was 0.12 tons; in February, it was 0.04 tons; from January to February, the cumulative import was 0.17 tons. [64] - **Export**: In January, the caustic soda export was 34.99 tons; in February, it was 27.64 tons; from January to February, the cumulative export was 62.63 tons. [70] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of liquid caustic soda this week was 52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.93%. [74] - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased week - on - week. [77] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 56.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 56.92%. [80]