投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-26 俄乌和谈进展主导油价，聚烯烃期价创 近年新低 国际原油期货在周二夜盘大幅下滑，彭博报道称乌克兰已同意修订后 的和平协议条款，尽管仍有若干细节问题待敲定。Brent一度下跌2.4%， 随后收复部分失地。美乌官员已在日内瓦展开谈判，美俄代表赴阿布扎比 举行会谈。与此同时，俄罗斯原油海运量在截至11月23日的四周内连续第 五周下滑，10月中旬被制裁以来俄罗斯原油日发货量下滑了53万桶。原油 强现实弱预期的局面延续，关键变量就在于俄乌和谈进展。投资者暂时以 震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 原油趋弱，油化工成本下移，其中PP和PE双双创出多年低点。聚烯烃 2025年产能增速均超10%，且检修力度不足，聚烯烃产量持续位于五年同 期最高，刚刚过去的10月两个品种月度产量仍创出了历史纪录新高。PP和 PE超过50%的生产都来自炼厂端，炼油和芳烃的利润尚可，炼厂停车检修 聚烯烃的概率就低。当前PE虽然价格连连下跌，但进口窗口多处于开启及 待开启状态，凸显了PE全球格局的弱势。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：原料供应扰动叠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the weak performance of caustic soda futures, with the primary contract experiencing a decline of nearly 1% and trading at 2243.0 yuan, down 0.93% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, with no significant driving forces, and inventory levels are slightly high. The end of the concentrated maintenance season suggests a mid-term increase in both supply and demand, but the overall conflict remains manageable [2]. - Current spot prices for caustic soda are around 2375 yuan, indicating a loose market. The cost of production is estimated to be between 2050 and 2350 yuan, which is a critical support level to monitor [2][3]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Pressure - Most production facilities have completed maintenance, leading to a weak price for liquid caustic soda, while liquid chlorine prices remain relatively high. The profit margins for electrolysis units are at lower levels compared to previous years [3]. - The introduction of new production capacities is expected to exert further supply pressure, with a focus on the sustainability of liquid chlorine inventory reduction and downstream demand. Current conditions indicate good demand for liquid chlorine from downstream sectors [3]. - The aluminum oxide industry is facing increased losses, leading to a marginal decline in production and operating capacity, which contributes to high inventory levels. However, there is a lack of substantial reduction in production despite the pressures [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Report's Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as overseas market conditions, domestic production capacity changes, and seasonal demand [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts declined. Propylene spot prices are supported due to restart of downstream plants and low inventory [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures declined. Supply pressure persists, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas pure benzene rebounded, but lacks sustainability. Domestic pure benzene faces supply pressure and weak demand [3] - Styrene futures declined. Supply - demand is in tight balance, and port inventory is expected to decrease [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but demand is weakening. PTA processing margin fluctuates with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol supply is increasing, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. A bearish view is maintained [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are weak due to high inventory and weak demand [6] - Urea prices may be strong before the Indian tender, but there is a risk of decline [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices declined due to weak cost support and high supply [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices declined due to lower cost. The long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices declined. Mid - stream inventory is high, and short - term trading is recommended to be cautious [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction lies in limited improvement in the spot market, with downstream replenishment falling short of expectations. Caustic soda production remains at a high level, leading to continuous supply pressure. In terms of valuation, the price of liquid chlorine is moderately strong, and the chlor - alkali profit stays at a medium - high level, weakening cost support, and alkali plants have no motivation for active production cuts [3]. - There is still an expectation for the alkali - stocking demand of downstream aluminum plants from November to December, which may support the spot market. However, the production of caustic soda remains high, resulting in significant supply pressure. The spot market improvement is limited, and the delivery volume of major aluminum plants remains high. Also, the caustic - chlorine profit is decent, so alkali plants have no incentive to cut production actively [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.50%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also sell call options (SH601C2400, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower costs. If the price rises, the selling price of the spot can be locked [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and wishing to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2250) to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH601P2200, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 50) to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the price drops, the purchase price of the spot can be locked [2]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2438, down 44 (-1.77%) from November 14; the 09 contract was 2525, down 61 (-2.36%); the 01 contract was 2291, down 36 (-1.55%) [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the 32 - alkali ex - factory price of Shandong Jinling was 2344, down 62.5 (-2.6%) from November 14. The 50 - alkali ex - factory price of Jinling was 2360, down 20 (-0.8%) [5][7]. Price Differences - **Brand/Regional Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the difference between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was 16, up 42.5 from November 14. Other differences such as Jiangsu 49 - alkali minus 32 - alkali remained unchanged [8]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: On November 17, 2025, the monthly difference (5 - 9) was - 87, up 17 from November 14; the monthly difference (9 - 1) was 234, down 25; the monthly difference (1 - 5) was - 147, up 8 [5].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Core Insights - Futures tools have evolved from merely hedging price risks to reconstructing trade logic within the industry [1][2] - The application of derivative tools is transitioning from traditional hedging to more complex models such as basis trading and rights-inclusive trading [2][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The oilseed, chemical, and textile industries are entering an era of rights-inclusive trading, enhancing risk management capabilities and overall competitiveness [2][3] - The introduction of futures contracts, such as caustic soda futures, provides companies like Dongbo Chemical with improved risk management tools and operational efficiency [2][3] Group 2: Company Innovations - Dongbo Chemical has adopted a basis pricing model for caustic soda, resulting in increased sales and export volumes [3] - Guangzhou Yelong has upgraded its trading models to include futures and options, enhancing its risk management and cost efficiency [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The correlation coefficients for futures and spot prices of rapeseed oil and meal reached 0.99 and 0.97 respectively in 2024, indicating the growing importance of futures prices as market indicators [5] - Companies like Dongguan Fuzhiyuan leverage futures tools to hedge against risks, achieving up to 80% risk mitigation in procurement [5][6] Group 4: Strategic Importance of Futures - The expansion of production capacity in the grain and oil industry has led to declining utilization rates, making futures tools essential for adjusting sales strategies [6] - Futures tools are seen as a "virtual warehouse" that helps companies lock in supplies and improve operational flexibility [6][7]

Group 1: National Futures Market Overview - In October, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 603 million contracts and a trading value of 61.22 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.26% in volume but an increase of 4.54% in value [1] - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume reached 7.347 billion contracts, with a cumulative trading value of 608.84 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 14.86% in volume and 21.82% in value [1] Group 2: Commodity Futures Performance - As of October, there are 160 futures and options products listed in China, with gold futures leading the market in trading volume and value [2] - From January to October, gold futures accumulated a trading volume of 91.84 million contracts, up 58.24% year-on-year, and a trading value of 7.132 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 121.65% [2] - The trading value of gold futures accounted for 11.71% of the national market, ranking first among all products [2] - Other notable products with significant year-on-year growth include caustic soda futures from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (528.68%), coking coal futures from Dalian Commodity Exchange (414.39%), and lithium carbonate futures from Guangxi Futures Exchange (125.53%) [2] Group 3: Financial Futures Performance - The CSI 1000 index futures are also among the most popular products, with a cumulative trading volume of 48.63 million contracts and a trading value of 6.21 trillion yuan from January to October, reflecting year-on-year growth of 34.75% in volume and 68.03% in value [3] - The trading value of CSI 1000 index futures accounted for 10.2% of the national market, ranking just behind gold futures [3] Group 4: Futures Companies' Financial Performance - As of September 2025, there are 150 futures companies in China, with a total agency trading value of 71.61 trillion yuan and a net profit of 11.98 billion yuan for the first nine months of the year [4] - The financial performance of listed futures companies shows significant disparity, with some companies like Ruida Futures and Yong'an Futures reporting positive net profit growth [4] - Ruida Futures reported a total revenue of 1.621 billion yuan, down 2.87% year-on-year, but a net profit of 386 million yuan, up 42.15% [4] - Yong'an Futures had a total revenue of 8.355 billion yuan, down 55.26% year-on-year, but a net profit of 475 million yuan, up 13.31% [4] Group 5: Declining Performance of Other Futures Companies - Nanhua Futures reported a total revenue of 941 million yuan, down 8.27% year-on-year, with a net profit of 351 million yuan, down 1.92% [5][6] - Hongye Futures experienced a significant decline, with total revenue of 462 million yuan, down 76.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 209,700 yuan, down 87.27% [5][6]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 2.83% at $4123.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.70% at $50.41 per ounce [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both rose 0.5%, at $60.05 and $63.95 per barrel respectively [6] - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 1.47%, aluminum up 1.14%, tin up 1.00%, zinc up 0.95%, lead up 0.46%, and nickel up 0.27% [6] - As of the close on October 10 at 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with soda ash up nearly 2%, caustic soda and pulp up over 1%, and some falling, like rapeseed meal and glass down nearly 1% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - The State Council issued measures to support private investment, increasing support for eligible projects [9] - Fed's Daly said the U.S. economy may face weak demand, and tariff - related inflation is under control [9] - In October, new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.621 million, up 18.5% year - on - year and 8.5% month - on - month, with cumulative sales from January to October at 12.058 million, up 29.9% [9] - China and the U.S. suspended relevant 301 investigation measures for one year starting from November 10, 2025 [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 10, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 113,000 tons, down 6.61% from the previous period and up 7.62% year - on - year [12] - As of November 10, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7062 million tons, down 0.47% from last Thursday [14] - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market [14] - In September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, down 5.45% from August and 1.78% year - on - year [14] - From November 10 at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively [15] Metal Futures - In October 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 64.97%, down 1.05 percentage points month - on - month and 7.76 points year - on - year [17] - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 159,600 tons, with a slight increase [18] - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETFs added 79.015 tons, up 164.03% year - on - year, while gold consumption was 682.73 tons, down 7.95% [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [19] Black - Series Futures - From November 3 to 9, 2025, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2.7693 million tons, down 544,800 tons from the previous period [21] - In October 2025, Mongolia's coal exports were 657,990 tons, down 26.52% month - on - month and 2.07% year - on - year [22] Agricultural Product Futures - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 2.2047 million tons, down 5.16% from last week and up 8.52% year - on - year [24] - In the 2024 - 2025 season, China's soybean imports were 109.37 million tons, and exports were 80,000 tons [25] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% (AmSpec) and 12.28% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [27][28] - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased 4.44% month - on - month, and production increased 11.02% [29] - From November 3 - 9, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.21 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous week [30] 3. Financial Markets Finance - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on guidelines for public fund thematic investment style management [33] - On Monday, A - shares showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.18%, and ChiNext Index down 0.92%, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, with southbound funds net buying HK$6654 million, and the cumulative net buying exceeded HK$5 trillion [33] - China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11 [34] - Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou were notified to pay additional taxes on overseas investment income [35] - TSMC's October revenue was NT$367.473 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year [36] Industry - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year [38] - Market regulators issued compliance tips for the "Double 11" online promotion [38] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a joint document on new - energy power systems [38] - In October, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while new - energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales increased by 18.5% [38] - As of October, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions showed a stable trend [39] Overseas - The U.S. and Thailand reached a trade framework agreement [40] - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs to 15% [41] - Fed's Milan supported further interest - rate cuts [43] - San Francisco Fed President Daly said the U.S. economy may face demand decline [43] - U.S. container imports in October decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [43] - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest - rate hikes [43] - Japan plans to raise visa fees for foreign visitors in 2026 [44] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27% [45] - European stocks rose, with the German DAX up 1.65%, French CAC40 up 1.32%, and UK FTSE 100 up 1.08% [47] - Goldman Sachs is bullish on Japanese and Indian stocks [47] - Vanguard increased its position in Tesla and Amazon in Q3 [47] Commodities - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 7.95% year - on - year, while ETFs added 79.015 tons [48] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange will waive trading fees for certain contracts and adjust the minimum redemption unit of "Bosera Gold ETF" [48] - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures also rose [48] - London base metals all rose [50] Bonds - The domestic bond market strengthened, with the 30 - year Treasury futures up 0.22% [51] - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds [51] - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds again [52] - U.S. Treasury yields rose [52] Foreign Exchange - On Monday, the on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed up 50 points at 7.1175 at 16:30 [54] - Three RMB exchange - rate indices reached new highs since April [54] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close [54] 4. Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released on November 11, including Japan's September trade balance and UK's October unemployment rate [56] - There are also multiple events, such as central bank officials' speeches and industry forums [56]

Core Insights - The commodity futures market experienced notable fluctuations, with the European shipping index futures dropping by 4.23% [1] - Asphalt futures decreased by 2.17%, while caustic soda futures increased by 2.14% [1] - Coking coal futures rose by 1.94%, and soybean futures saw an increase of 1.84% [1] Commodity Performance - European shipping index futures: down 4.23% [1] - Asphalt futures: down 2.17% [1] - Caustic soda futures: up 2.14% [1] - Coking coal futures: up 1.94% [1] - Soybean futures: up 1.84% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The chemical market shows a mixed performance with different products facing various supply - demand and price trends. Some products like PVC, methanol are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, while others like urea have some positive factors but still face supply - demand imbalances [2][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined as supply was overall loose, production enterprise shipments weakened, and downstream demand and purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fell. For polyethylene, cost support declined, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, cost support weakened, trade - sellers actively sold, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had prices fluctuating around 5400 yuan/ton, with inventory rising and supply increasing. Although the Sino - US tariff situation eased, it had limited impact on the market [3] - Styrene futures declined. New production devices were operating normally, and the future market outlook was not optimistic [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, with PTA facing inventory accumulation pressure. The demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol had a slight decline in weekly production, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory, and the strategy was to go short the spread [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure and followed raw material price fluctuations. It was expected to accumulate inventory in mid - to late November [4] - Bottle - chip demand decreased with the cooling weather, and the processing margin was under pressure. It was mainly driven by cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fell continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. High port inventory, high import supply, and weak downstream demand suppressed the market, and the inventory inflection point was yet to appear [5] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Daily production increased, and agricultural demand improved slightly. However, the domestic supply - demand imbalance continued, and the market was expected to oscillate within a range [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC was operating at a low level. Supply was expected to increase, demand was declining, and cost support was weak [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. Inventory was accumulating, and downstream demand was weak [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was oscillating. Supply increased, and demand from float glass decreased, so it was under pressure at a high level [7] - Glass futures declined from a high level. Production lines were shut down, and inventory was expected to decrease. Cost increased, and the decline space was limited [7]