1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251009）烧碱主力合约烧碱 2601 低开低走，价格重 心继续下行。收盘价 2450 元/吨,较上交易日结算价下跌 65 元/ 吨，跌幅 2.58%。成交量较上日增加 11.7 万手，全日成交量为 29.1 万手，持仓量为 10.3 万手，较上日增加 18857 手。 数据来源:国金期货行 成文日期：20251009 报告周期:日度 研究品种:烧碱 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货日报 1.2 品种价格 烧碱期货价格今日受化工市场情绪低迷影响，12 个合约全线下 行, 近月合约 SH510 跌幅超 2.5%。品种持仓量 18.83 万手,较上 一交易日增加 23538 手，其中活跃合约烧碱 2601，持仓量增加 18857 手，资金入 2.36 亿。 表 1：烧碱期货日行情表 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 成新 | 现手 | 买价 | 交价 | 买豆 ...

10月9日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2520.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，烧碱主力最高触及2526.0元，下方探低2442.0元，跌幅达2.35%附近。 目前来看，烧碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于烧碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）指出，10月氯碱装置检修损失量预计较9月有所下降，或带动烧碱产能利用率中枢 上移。氧化铝利润持续下降并接近盈亏平衡线，只是目前企业尚无规模性减产计划，短期耗碱需求预计 不会出现大幅收缩；非铝下游缺乏需求改善信号，预计维持刚需采购。国庆期间物流受阻，液碱工厂有 累库预期。节后随着下游部分非铝行业复工，液碱工厂库存压力或将缓解。今年四季度至明年年初下游 氧化铝有新装置投放，给到远端供需改善预期。关注氧化铝新产能补库节奏。节后烧碱盘面震荡对待， SH2601区间预计在2470-2580附近。 中原期货分析称，国庆小长假，山东市场需求端无明显利好，送主力下游液碱量仍较大，氯碱企业开工 负荷较高且下游卸货不畅，短期库存消化压力大，预计小长假期间库存大概率增加。近期不排除继续降 价可能。综合来看，山 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2）美国政府关门逾一周还无解：参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3）美 国国会预算办公室：上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元，与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4）普京：必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长：俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽，"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5）消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议，特朗普：以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议，本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but with the Fed's rate cut and conflicting outlooks, and prices at historical highs, there are risks of a market peak. For precious metals, it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday. For other commodities, trading strategies vary based on their respective fundamentals [1]. - The supply and demand of various commodities show different characteristics. For example, some have tight supply, while others face oversupply or weak demand, which affects their price trends and trading strategies [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The international gold price settled at $3789 per ounce, up 0.25%. The US government shutdown risk increased, consumer spending in the US in August was strong, and Chinese industrial enterprise profits rose significantly. Gold ETF funds flowed in. There is a risk of a market peak, and it is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - **Silver**: It followed gold to reach a new high. It is also recommended to partially close positions before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Friday. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is supported by high demand. It is expected to oscillate before the lithium mine in Jiangxi is put into production, and it is advisable to consider a call option strategy before the holiday [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 49,000 - 54,000 yuan. Pay attention to the 11 - 12 spread [3]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile view [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the rebar 2501 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2501 contract and hold long positions in the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are weak, and the domestic market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The mid - term unilateral focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost has decreased significantly. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan/ton [6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a high - level oscillation, and a reverse spread strategy is recommended [6]. - **Eggs**: The demand is weakening, and the futures are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [7]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to short [8]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is increasing, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. It is recommended to short the processing margin of the far - month contract at high prices [8]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a bullish view in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: The seasonal improvement is obvious, and it is recommended to go long [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [8][9]. - **MEG**: Due to low inventory and macro - policy disturbances, it is recommended to close short positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or carry out a reverse spread strategy [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream unexpectedly lowered the purchase price, and it is recommended to wait and see [10].

寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2500-2900 | 22.00% | 39.1% | 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2800-285 0 | | | | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on market performance and fundamentals [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated after rising. The market speculated on the significant production cut of Freeport's Indonesian project, and the domestic association called for anti - involution, but the strong US economic data at night led to a pull - back. Downstream demand showed resilience after the price increase. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover. It is recommended to go long on dips as the inventory build - up rate of aluminum ingots slows down, and there is still an expectation of inventory draw - down after the holiday [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.20% compared to the previous trading day. The operating capacity of alumina plants continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The price of the alumina futures may rebound due to the strike in Guinea and the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry, but the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday morning, it opened higher and then fluctuated. The supply side saw a decrease of 1 furnace in the number of open furnaces this week compared to last week, and the social inventory remained flat. The demand side was supported by the high operating rate of polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: It opened higher on Thursday and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The fundamental situation is supply - strong and demand - weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity, and those with low risk appetite can consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the main contract [1][2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices fluctuated weakly. The strong US economic data at night strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing tin prices. The supply side has expectations of resuming and starting production of tin mines. The demand needs to be boosted. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3157 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and try the 10/5 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3120 - 3190 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 802.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1216 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for JM01 is 1170 - 1240 yuan/ton [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The US soybeans had a slight production cut, and South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The global inventory is expected to remain high. The US soybeans are weak and range - bound, and the domestic market is also expected to oscillate. The mid - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract of corn fluctuated narrowly. The spot price in North China rose while that in the Northeast fell. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has dropped significantly, suppressing the forward price. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5494 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production reached a new high, and the domestic import volume in August also reached a new high. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the price of US cotton futures stopped falling and oscillated. The international cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton cloth import increased. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and adopt a range - bound strategy between 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Log**: The 11 contract of log closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter. The overall inventory of major ports in the country decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply side in Malaysia is entering the seasonal production - cut period, and the demand side has an expected increase in exports in September. It is expected to enter a high - level oscillation, and later attention should be paid to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5][6]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. After the double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the egg price is expected to oscillate and weaken, and the futures are also expected to be weak [6]. - **Pig**: The 2511 contract of pigs rebounded, and the spot price fell. The supply is abundant, and the pig price before the festival is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to run weakly due to the loose supply [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract of LLDPE rebounded slightly. The supply pressure in the domestic market has increased but is slowing down, and the demand has improved in the downstream agricultural film season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [7]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4904 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1270 yuan/ton. The price rose driven by expectations. The supply - demand has little change, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [7][8]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract of PP rebounded slightly. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand has recovered in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Yesterday, oil prices rose again. The supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract around 500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract of EB oscillated slightly. The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading as the supply gradually recovers [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1300 yuan/ton. The inventory of soda ash continued to decline, and the price rose slightly. The supply side is expected to tighten, and it is recommended to go long [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh01 contract closed at 2529 yuan/ton. The purchase price of the main downstream of caustic soda decreased again. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]