期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | 宏观金融 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | ◆股指： | | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | | 黑色建材 | 区间交易 | | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | ◆螺纹钢： | | | 09 空头看待 | ◆玻璃： | | | | 有色金属 | | | | | 建议低位适度持多 | ◆铜： | | | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | ◆铝： | | | | 建议观望或逢高做空 | ◆镍： | 区间交易 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | ◆黄金： | | | 区间交易 | ◆白银： | | | | 能源化工 | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | 震荡 | ◆烧碱： | | 震荡 | ◆苯乙烯： | | | | 震荡 | ◆橡胶： | | | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | | 棉纺产业链 | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | | 震荡运行 | ◆苹果： | ...

基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 | | | | 基本面：特朗普再度干预美联储独立性，美元指数走弱明显，金属得到支撑。华东华南平水铜现货升水 90 元 | | 铜 | 和 30 元，伦敦结构 89 美金 contango。 | | | 交易策略：短期市场依然交易降息预期走强和美元走弱，铜矿供应紧张。建议逢低买入。 | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.22%，收于 20785 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 72 元/吨，LME | | | 价格 2617 美元/吨。 | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | 交易策略：宏观环境和产业供需均有改善的迹象，随着旺季临近，铝材开工率环比上涨，铝锭社会库存出现 | | | 去库拐点，需关注需求改善的持续性，预计价格震荡偏强，建议逢低做多。 | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-3.61 ...

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格震荡，市场逐步消化鲍威尔讲话。 | | | | | | | 金 | | 基本面：特朗普政府据称考虑因数字服务法制裁欧盟官员。国内黄金 ETF | 资金小幅流出，COMEX | | | 黄金库存 | | | 属 | 1199 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1113 | | | 吨，增加 | 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | 白银库存 | 15823 | 吨，增加 7 | | 吨；伦 | | | 敦 7 | 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 | 吨左右。全球最大白银 | | etf--iShares | | 持有 | | | 量为 | 15288 吨，增加 11 吨。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略： ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the strong downstream demand for caustic soda drove the continuous rise of caustic soda futures. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted price of caustic soda futures reached 2,756 yuan/ton, a 4.51% increase from the previous week. The favorable fundamentals also led to an increase in both futures and spot prices of caustic soda [6][7][11]. - The caustic soda futures are expected to remain strong. After a pullback, long - position operations should still be considered [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Trend Review - Last week, the caustic soda futures continued to rise due to strong downstream demand. The weighted price of caustic soda futures closed at 2,756 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 4.51% from the previous week. In the spot market, the weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 836 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase from the previous week [6][11]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Fundamental Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week. There were different trends in different regions, such as a 3.9% decrease in the Northwest to 87.1% and a 0.1% increase in Shandong to 88.4% [15]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operation of the main downstream industries of caustic soda was generally stable. The alumina production remained stable, and the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.18% to 86.22% [18]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a 9.46% decrease from the previous week. Inventory trends varied by region, with most regions experiencing inventory declines, while the inventory in the Northwest increased slightly [21]. - **Profit of Chlor - Alkali Enterprises in Shandong**: Last week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 349 yuan/ton, a 21.18% increase from the previous week [24]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Trend Outlook - **Liquid Caustic Soda**: In East China, major enterprises are expected to undergo maintenance this week, and non - aluminum stocking demand is increasing. The inventory pressure on enterprises is not significant, and the price of liquid caustic soda is expected to rise steadily. The price of liquid caustic soda in eastern Shandong may still increase [28]. - **Flake Caustic Soda**: The market in other domestic regions is mainly consolidating. In Inner Mongolia, the maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the new order quotes of manufacturers are expected to remain stable [9].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 rose 1.80% to close at 2,655 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, there were both shutdown and restarted plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places will further increase, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably. The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the resistance around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 78,794 lots, up 14,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was -2,221 lots, up 11,389 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 351,729 lots, up 141,371 lots; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for January was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for May was 2,731 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Urea**: The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies, which has been realized. China may resume urea exports to India, opening up an incremental market window. The policy window requires concentrated exports by the end of September, which coincides with the domestic autumn storage period, creating a demand resonance. The overall market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, domestic supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices gradually restart, and the absolute price rebound space is limited. PTA's short - term basis is supported, but the upward space is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced with minor fluctuations in August. Short - fiber supply and demand both increase slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost end, and the processing fee space depends on demand [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year due to high imports in August. The demand is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak and MTO profits recovering. The 09 contract is facing significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal peak season and gas - limit expectations [11]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: For caustic soda, the market sentiment is weakening, and the supply is expected to increase. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure remains high due to new capacity release and weak demand [20]. - **Polyolefin**: In the static view, the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being destocked, and the basis is weak. Strategically, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is expected to improve in the third quarter, and short - term prices are supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. For styrene, the supply is high, but there are maintenance expectations as profits are compressed, and the downstream load is rising [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to expand the spread between October - November/December contracts [35]. Summaries by Catalog Urea - **Futures Prices**: On August 19, the 01 contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton, up 3.59% from the previous day; the 05 contract closed at 1839 yuan/ton; the 09 contract closed at 1783 yuan/ton. The main methanol contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [1]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, up 38.89%; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 56 yuan/ton, down 5.08% [1]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short positions of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces and动力煤坑口 remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 decreased by 0.47% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.60%, while the prices of compound fertilizers remained stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily domestic urea production was 19.12 million tons, down 0.78%; the weekly production was 132.85 million tons, up 1.51% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil (September) was at $62.35/barrel, down 1.7% [4]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX was at $835/ton, up 0.2%. The PX basis (11) decreased by 44.1% [4]. - **PTA - Related**: The PTA East China spot price was 4690 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The PTA basis (01) increased by 42.1% [4]. - **MEG - Related**: The MEG East China spot price was 4458 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The MEG basis (09) decreased by 30.6% [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products showed different changes, and the cash - flows and processing fees also varied [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory was 54.1 million tons, and the polyester industry chain's various开工 rates showed different trends [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 19, the MA2601 contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The太仓基差 was - 5 yuan/ton, down 171.43% [8]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 million tons, up 0.64%; the port inventory was 102.2 million tons, up 10.41% [10]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 76.92%, up 0.68% [11]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: The price of Shandong 32% caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East China PVC decreased [14]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.3%, down 2.0%; the PVC总开工率 was 78.8%, up 1.4% [17]. - **Profits**: The外采电石法PVC利润 was - 562 yuan/ton, down 3.7%; the西北一体化利润 was 278.8 yuan/ton, down 5.1% [17]. - **Demand**: The开工 rates of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased slightly, while PVC's downstream product开工 rates showed different trends [18][19]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly [20]. Polyolefin - **Prices**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the PP2601 contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [23]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 million tons, down 13.76%; PP贸易商库存 was 18.0 million tons, down 4.06% [23]. - **开工率**: The PE装置开工率 was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the PP装置开工率 was 76.6%, down 1.1% [23]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; CFR China pure benzene was at $747/ton, unchanged [29]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices**: The East China spot price of styrene was 7280 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [29]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.40 million tons, down 1.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.15 million tons, up 8.5% [31]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene开工率 was 75.7%, down 0.4%; the styrene开工率 was 78.2%, up 0.6% [32]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent crude oil was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil was at $62.60/barrel, up 0.4% [35]. - **Spreads**: Brent M1 - M3 was at $0.88, down 14%; WTI M1 - M3 was at $0.92, up 4.5% [35]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil showed different changes, and the cracking spreads also varied [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].