东北负电价破局之路（上篇） 当前，东北地区承担电力系统调节任务的主要是煤电机组，而这些机组绝大部分同时承担着民生供热职 责，由于尚未实现热电解耦，"以热定电"的刚性约束贯穿整个供暖季——发电负荷必须服从供热需求， 发电与供热形成强耦合的技术特性，使得热电联产机组的最小技术出力从非供暖季的25%大幅上升至 45%，调节空间被严重压缩。与此同时，10月起东北进入大风季，风电利用小时数较夏季提升30%，进 一步加剧了电力供需失衡，负（零）电价的持续出现，成为这一矛盾的直接体现。 二、破局关键：激活需求侧潜力，以采暖革新化解供需矛盾 破解东北负电价困局，供给侧的热电解耦是重要支撑，需求侧的潜力激活更是关键抓手，而推广商业化 电采暖，正是实现这一目标的核心路径——通过引导用户侧采用电采暖，精准匹配新能源大发时段的电 力供给，可将负电价这一市场"痛点"，成功转化为清洁供暖的核心"卖点"。 东北冬季最显著的能源特性，便是"供暖季与大风季高度重合"，这一天然优势为商业化电采暖的大规模 推广提供了绝佳条件，也为破解电力供需失衡打开了突破口。进入供暖季，东北区域同步迎来大风季， 风电出力大幅提升，形成新能源大发态势，而此时也正是 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the direction of clean, efficient, flexible, and reliable development in the coal power industry as outlined in the "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade and Transformation Action Plan (2025-2027)" [1] Group 1: System Upgrade - The plan aims for precise guidance based on regional differences and unit types, with goals to retrofit and build coal power units capable of rapid load adjustment by 2027 [2] - The transition from partial upgrades to comprehensive upgrades covering main and auxiliary systems is highlighted, with a focus on quality improvement rather than scale expansion [3] - The "Upgrade Parameters+" model proposed by the company targets aging subcritical units, aiming to enhance performance and extend operational life by 15 to 30 years [3] Group 2: Deep Peak Regulation - The plan sets clear technical indicators for existing and new coal units, requiring minimum output levels of 25% to 40% of rated capacity for existing units and aiming for lower levels for new units [5] - The integration of "thermal-electric decoupling" with long-duration energy storage is identified as a key solution to enhance unit flexibility while maintaining safety [6] - The estimated increase in unit cost for new generation coal power to achieve deep peak regulation is around 100 yuan per kilowatt, with manageable increases in operational costs [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the industry [5]. Core Insights - Molten salt energy storage is pivotal in transforming coal power from a base-load to a flexible power source, addressing the challenges posed by the increasing share of renewable energy and peak load pressures in the power system [1][16]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set requirements for coal power efficiency, including reducing minimum output for deep peak shaving to 20% and enhancing load change rates [1][16]. - The molten salt storage technology, particularly steam heating, is currently the mainstream approach due to its high compatibility with thermal power plants and engineering maturity [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - Molten salt energy storage aids in the transition of coal power to a flexible power source, overcoming the "heat determines electricity" dilemma [1][16]. - The technology's core is "thermal-electrical decoupling," allowing for energy storage during low demand and release during peak demand [1][16][22]. - The report highlights the successful operation of the Guoneng Suzhou power plant's molten salt storage project as a replicable model for coal power flexibility transformation [1][25]. 2. Market Information Tracking - Electricity prices in Jiangsu and Guangdong for December 2025 are reported at 339.58 RMB/MWh and 372.33 RMB/MWh, respectively, indicating a decrease in Jiangsu and a slight increase in Guangdong compared to benchmark prices [4][39]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is reported at 698 RMB/ton, remaining stable [41]. - The report notes a decline in natural gas prices, with Dutch TTF futures at 29 EUR/TWh and China's LNG at 11 USD/MMBtu [43][45]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the significant growth in renewable energy installations, with a total capacity of 2.22 billion kW, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total [8]. - The introduction of new pricing mechanisms for electricity transmission and distribution aims to support the efficient utilization of renewable energy and reduce system operation costs [9]. - The ecological environment ministry's carbon emissions trading plan aims to incentivize advanced practices and penalize laggards in key industries [10]. 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal power companies with high price elasticity, such as Huaneng International and Huadian International, due to expected improvements in profitability [11]. - For hydropower, the report is optimistic about the fourth quarter outlook, recommending attention to companies like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [11]. - The report also highlights the potential for independent energy storage and virtual power plants under market-driven electricity pricing [12].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of China's first "20 MWh new filling bed thermal storage system" auxiliary peak shaving project marks a significant technological breakthrough in the flexible generation of coal-fired power plants, addressing the challenges of efficient thermal storage technology [2][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project is a strategic initiative by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and utilizes a newly developed spray filling bed thermal storage technology, breaking the traditional "heat determines electricity" model by decoupling heating and power generation [4]. - The first set of the 20 MWh spray filling bed thermal storage system has achieved breakthroughs in key technologies such as efficient large-capacity structural design and high-flow multi-phase heat exchange, improving heat transfer efficiency and significantly reducing the amount of heat transfer medium used [4]. Group 2: Impact on the Industry - The project will provide a new pathway for thermal power companies to explore the "thermal-electric decoupling" model, enhancing the peak shaving capability of coal-fired power plants and increasing the grid's ability to accommodate renewable energy [5]. - This innovative technology is expected to inject new momentum into the construction of new power systems by improving the efficiency of unit response to grid dispatching needs and assisting in load adjustment [5].