业绩低于预期，煤电联营有望深入 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 发电 新集能源发布半年报，1H25 实现营收 58.11 亿元（yoy-2.91%），归母净 利 9.20 亿元（yoy-21.72%），扣非净利 9.35 亿元（yoy-17.86%）。其中 2Q25 实现营收 29.01 亿元（yoy-0.89%，qoq-0.29%），归母净利 3.89 亿 元（yoy-32.79%，qoq-26.93%），低于我们预期的 4.08-4.68 亿元，主要 系上网电价低于预期。期待公司在建煤电投产后"煤电联营"效应进一步提 升，维持"增持"评级。 公司外销煤价 2Q25 环比-13.75%，3Q25 有望环比修复 2Q25，公司商品煤外销量为 483.04 万吨，同比+5.47%；其中外销煤比例 为 71.47%，环比+7.72pp，同比-7.49pp。我们测算 2Q25 公司外销商品煤 不含税售价同比-76.1 元/吨（-13.72%yoy）至 478 元/吨，环比-76.2 元/吨 （-13.75%yoy），主要系 2Q25 市场煤价快速下降。1H25，因煤价同比下 降，公司煤炭板块净利润同比-2 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 新集能源(601918.SH) | | | 上次评级 买入 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] Q2 煤价&发电量价下跌拖累业绩，下半年有 望显著改善 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 23 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y]8 月 22 日，新集能源发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年 H1 公司 实现营业收入 58.11 亿元，同比-2.91%；实现归母净利润 9.20 亿元，同比 -21.72%；扣非后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The recent rebound in market coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price rising from 609 RMB/ton in early June to 698 RMB/ton by August 15, indicates that coal power profitability is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year. Long-term, there is significant potential for stability in coal power profitability with the expected increase in capacity electricity prices in 2026 and beyond [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 11.113 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 899 million RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 157.96% [5] - The company plans to raise up to 2 billion RMB through a private placement to fund the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV project, which will add significant coal power capacity [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.538 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.68%, and a net profit of 453 million RMB, representing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 374.71% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 23.40% and 11.82%, respectively, showing increases of 9.58 percentage points and 8.41 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 47.138 billion RMB in 2024 to 56.123 billion RMB by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7] Future Profitability Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.403 billion RMB, 1.545 billion RMB, and 1.672 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.6, 8.7, and 8.1 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Investment Corporation, aims to create a strategic synergy effect of "1+1>2" by addressing industry competition, enhancing resource reserves, optimizing industrial layout, and improving overall competitiveness and risk resistance [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - The transaction involves 13 target companies across various sectors including coal, coal-fired power, coal chemical, and logistics services [1]. - The restructuring is expected to resolve issues of industry competition and enhance the company's core competitiveness and sustainable profitability [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Alignment - The acquisition aligns with national energy security strategies by consolidating resources from strategic bases in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi, thereby improving supply stability and emergency response capabilities [3]. - This move is also a significant step in capital market reform, enhancing asset quality and scale efficiency through the integration of high-quality coal and related assets [3][5]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The restructuring is seen as a strong measure to promote orderly development and healthy competition within the energy sector, providing a replicable reform path for state-owned enterprises [5]. - It is expected to facilitate the transition of traditional energy companies towards greener and smarter operations, aligning with national carbon reduction goals [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The target assets are projected to have a total asset value of 258.36 billion and a net profit of 8.01 billion for the year 2024, with a weighted average return on equity of 10.45% [8]. - China Shenhua has a strong dividend history, with cumulative cash dividends reaching 491.9 billion and an average payout ratio exceeding 60% [9]. - The company plans to distribute at least 65% of its net profit as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027, with a commitment to increase the frequency of dividends [9][10].

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Fengtai County's economy from a coal-dominated structure to a diversified energy landscape, focusing on new energy and high-tech industries [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Transformation - Fengtai County is shifting from a coal-based economy to a new energy framework, with significant investments in solar and new energy sectors [2][3] - The county's coal and electricity industry generated an output value of 12.11 billion yuan and produced 1.68 million tons of coal in the first half of the year [2] - The county's technological transformation investments, high-tech industry added value, and strategic emerging industry output value grew by 48.6%, 26.2%, and 12.5% respectively in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: New Energy Initiatives - The Guosheng (Fengtai) Heterojunction Carbon Neutrality Industrial Park has been launched, with a total investment of nearly 10.6 billion yuan, covering various fields including high-efficiency batteries and components [2][3] - The combined annual output value of the projects from Zhonghuan and Guosheng is expected to reach 56 billion yuan, with an additional value of 8.18 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Industry Growth - Fengtai County plans to establish a core component industry cluster for electric vehicles, aiming for an output value of over 1.2 billion yuan by 2025 [4][5] - The county has seen a 40.4% increase in revenue from electric vehicle enterprises, reaching 462 million yuan in the first half of the year [5][6] Group 4: New Materials Sector Development - The county is focusing on developing a new materials industry, with 35 regulated enterprises generating an output value of 520 million yuan from January to July [7][8] - Several projects in the new materials sector have been signed, with total investments amounting to 8.1 billion yuan [8]

Market Performance - In July 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.74%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 5.20% and the ChiNext Index surged by 8.14%[5] - The average return of the stock portfolio in July was 1.14%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index which rose by 3.54%[5] Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was recorded at 5.3%, with a full-year target of 5% growth expected to be achievable[5] - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast, but the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has reduced expectations for a rate cut in September[5] Stock Recommendations - Chengdu Bank (601838) is recommended for its high dividend yield of 4.82% based on a closing price of 18.47 RMB, with a PE ratio of 5.64[9][12] - Xinhua Insurance (601336) shows strong business elasticity with a closing price of 66.77 RMB and a PE ratio of 8.64, reflecting a significant increase in new business value by 67.9%[13][17] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) is positioned well in tungsten and rare earth sectors, with a closing price of 23.22 RMB and a projected EPS of 1.33 RMB[18][19] Investment Risks - Economic fluctuations may lead to weaker consumer spending and corporate investment, impacting credit demand and asset quality for banks[12] - Regulatory tightening could hinder new policy sales and affect premium growth for insurance companies[17] Company Performance Highlights - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (600276) reported a 20.14% increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven by innovative drug sales[26][29] - Ningde Times (300750) achieved a 33.33% increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a strong cash reserve of 350.58 billion RMB[30][33]

Group 1: Safety Production and Risk Management - Jiangsu has published 796 safety risk items across 77 sectors, prompting 28.6 million production units to complete risk reports and identify 943,000 risks [2] - A total of 53,800 hidden dangers were reported by companies, with rewards amounting to over 41.8 million yuan for employees who identified these risks [2] - The province has implemented a special governance action targeting illegal activities in chemical and pharmaceutical production, resulting in 108 illegal actions being addressed [3] Group 2: Energy Supply and Infrastructure - Jiangsu's highest electricity load reached 152.8 million kilowatts, marking the third record-breaking peak this year, with an increase of 5.75 million kilowatts from the previous highest value [5] - The province has invested approximately 136.6 billion yuan in the energy sector in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.8% [7] - The new coal power project in Jiangsu, with two 1 million kilowatt units, is expected to generate 10 billion kilowatt-hours annually, meeting the electricity needs of over 7 million residents in East China [6] Group 3: Agricultural Production and Resilience - Despite facing rare drought conditions, Jiangsu's summer grain production remained stable at 14.213 million tons, with a yield of 379.4 kg per mu [8] - The province has implemented various measures to enhance agricultural resilience, including the construction of high-standard farmland, which now totals 44.01 million mu, accounting for 82% of the permanent basic farmland [10] - Water management strategies have been enhanced, with 20.4 billion cubic meters of water being diverted to support summer crops [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's GDP in H1 growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and the "rush to export" phenomenon supported the economic data, but also reduced the urgency of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, there has been an increasing expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reduction policies are needed to promote the "anti - involution" trading [2]. - After the passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations. The current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, and its impact on sentiment and demand expectations should be watched out for [3]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and one should be cautious about the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's export performance in June was remarkable, with a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of Sino - US tariffs. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8% due to the suspension of policy subsidies in some areas, but subsequent subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the weak real - estate sales dragging down the real - estate chain still exists. On July 22, A - shares strengthened throughout the day, and the commodity futures market saw a wave of limit - up for many varieties such as coking coal and coke, stimulating the full - scale outbreak of cyclical stocks [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. The expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and lithium battery has increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded. The upcoming ten key industry pro - growth work plans for industries like steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. "对等 Tariff" Impact - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US has shifted its policy from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage where policies are "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten." The US Treasury Secretary said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, with expected tariff revenues of up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. Trump has extended the grace period for the "equal tariff" and started the "equal tariff 2.0" stage. The US has sent tariff letters to 25 countries in 4 batches, and negotiations with various countries are in progress [3]. Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, with a relatively loose medium - term supply outlook. OPEC + has accelerated production increases, and the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held this week [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one should consider long - term positions in industrial products on dips [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jining Energy Group has made significant progress by ranking 213th in the 2025 Fortune China 500 list, up from 252nd in 2024, reflecting its robust operational performance and successful transformation efforts [2][3] - Jining Energy Group aims to become a leading comprehensive energy group and bulk commodity supply chain service provider, focusing on solidifying its coal and electricity foundation, expanding port and logistics, strengthening bulk trade, and optimizing high-end manufacturing [2] - In the first half of 2025, despite a challenging economic environment, Jining Energy Group remains committed to its goal of becoming a trillion-level group, demonstrating resilience and strong momentum through innovative operations and market expansion [2] Group 2 - The company plans to leverage its improved ranking in the Fortune China 500 as an opportunity to focus on building a large port, developing logistics, and nurturing a trillion-level industry, while accelerating the creation of six hundred billion parks [3] - Jining Energy Group operates in four main business segments: coal and electricity, modern port and shipping, logistics trade, and high-end manufacturing, with an annual coal production capacity of 11 million tons and a port throughput capacity of 55 million tons [3] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 91.3 billion yuan and paid over 5.9 billion yuan in taxes, marking continuous growth and recognition as one of China's top logistics companies [3]

Key Points - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the consumption tax threshold for super-luxury cars from a retail price of 1.3 million yuan to 900,000 yuan, effective from July 20, 2025. This adjustment differentiates between various power types, with pure electric and fuel cell vehicles facing lower tax burdens compared to those with cylinder capacity [8][9] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act," aimed at significant legislative reform for cryptocurrency regulation, with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against. This bill is expected to be signed into law by President Trump [10][11] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.23%, reflecting a positive trend in Chinese concept stocks [11] - Hangzhou Bank reported a net profit of 11.662 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.67% [13] - Longhua Group received a designated order from a domestic new energy vehicle client, with an estimated total sales amount of approximately 235 million yuan [14] - Dongfang Yuhong's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to acquire 100% of Construmart for 123 million USD [15] - Red Tower Securities intends to repurchase company shares worth between 100 million and 200 million yuan [16] - Helen Piano's actual controller is planning a change in control, leading to a stock suspension starting July 18 [17] - Mould Technology received a project designation for exterior parts, with an expected total sales of 2.044 billion yuan [19] - Good Products Shop's controlling shareholder is set to change to Changjiang Guomao, with stock resuming trading on July 18 [20] Industry Insights - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the data center industry is entering a new golden development period, driven by the digitalization wave and the growth of AI, indicating a significant turning point in industry orders [21][22] - Huayuan Securities noted that coal power approvals remain high, with increasing peak load demands, suggesting that the long-term demand for coal power may be underestimated [23]