Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint In the current situation of capital pursuit, the methanol futures price is expected to be strong, and low - position long orders can be held. However, potential negative factors such as the easing of the geopolitical situation, the expansion of the shutdown scope of downstream olefins or the delay of resumption of production cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to position control when the market fluctuates greatly [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Impact - Geopolitical conflict has escalated from a bilateral confrontation between the US - Israel and Iran to a multi - front melee, covering the entire Middle East. The risk premium provides continuous and strong support for methanol [3]. - Some Iranian methanol plants have stopped production or postponed restart plans due to concerns about military conflicts, creating a large expectation gap with the previous market prediction of early resumption. There is a high probability that the US and Israel will attack Iran's oil and gas facilities, which may affect the restart progress of Iranian methanol plants [4]. - Military conflicts may lead to the closure or restriction of major export ports, affecting ship cargo shipments, and increasing logistics costs. Once the geopolitical conflict eases, Iranian methanol plants may restart, and methanol prices may drop rapidly [5]. Spring Maintenance - The scale of methanol spring maintenance has been shrinking in recent years, and its contraction effect on the supply side has been weakening. In 2021 - 2022, the parking capacity involved in spring maintenance was 2300 - 2400 tons/year, reaching a peak of 3200 tons/year in 2023, dropping to 2000 tons/year in 2024, and only 1700 tons/year in 2025 [6]. - Factors such as improved production profits, equipment upgrades, overseas supply uncertainty, and weak downstream demand have led to the reduction of spring - maintenance scale. However, there is still a rigid demand for spring maintenance from the perspective of equipment safety [6][7]. Port Inventory and Olefin Demand - The current main - port inventory of methanol is at a high level of 1.4467 million tons, and the MTO (Methanol - to - Olefins) operating rate of downstream main demand is also at a low level. If the methanol price rises too much, it may lead to a weakening of downstream acceptance, causing the delay of olefin plant restart or the reduction of the operating rate of existing plants, and weakening the upward momentum of methanol prices [9].