Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 24, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,556 yuan/ton, down 1.10%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,500 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,240 yuan/ton. [2] - The Fed's Waller said that considering the recent mild inflation data, a rate cut in July should be considered. [2] - Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end decreased by 186,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and stabilized, and the pessimistic sentiment has improved. [2] - In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 120 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 350 yuan/ton for silicon - iron; the Ningxia spot profit is - 300 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 310 yuan/ton for silicon - iron. [2] - In the market, steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender prices continue to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,556 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,288 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量 was 597,205 hands, up 9,808 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 425,758 hands, down 6,891 hands. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 25,899 hands, up 7,983 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 44,943 hands, up 4,411 hands. [2] - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] - The SM warehouse receipts were 93,769, down 1,231; the SF warehouse receipts were 0. [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The SM index average was 5,465 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 48 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The SM主力合约基差 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.215 million tons, down 186,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 36.39%, up 1.09%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate was 32.69%, up 1.34%. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 176,610 tons, up 3,220 tons; the silicon - iron supply was 97,900 tons, up 2,800 tons. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; the silicon - iron manufacturer inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. [2] - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. [2] Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 123,717 tons, up 1,564 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,964.4 tons, up 356.6 tons. [2] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, up 0.45%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81%, up 0.25%. [2] - The crude - steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons. [2] Other Market News - Another Fed governor after Waller last Friday signaled a dovish stance. Bowman supported an interest - rate cut as early as July due to potential rising risks in the labor market. [2] - Recently, special bonds are being used for government investment funds for the first time, and the arrangement of using the new special debt quota for land acquisition, purchasing existing commercial housing, and paying off local government arrears to enterprises is gradually being implemented. It is expected that the issuance of new local government special bonds will still accelerate in the second half of the year. [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than the expected 50.5. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is capable of dealing with "exceptionally severe" economic and political uncertainties. [2] - On June 23, the coke market price was weak, and the fourth - round price cut was implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the coke purchase price by 50 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke. [2] - On June 24, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia is lowered, the cost support is weakened, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. [2]