1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic environment has a mixed impact on the coking coal market. The LPR remains unchanged this month, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stable growth in the steel industry. Some import ports will be closed from October 1 - 7, 2025. Overseas, new tariff policies have been introduced. The supply - side shows increasing production capacity utilization in mines and coal washing plants, while imports' cumulative growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. Before the holiday, funds are reducing positions to avoid risks, market sentiment is falling, and the downstream replenishment is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price trend is expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or hold no positions in the main contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - 523 coking coal mines had a daily average raw coal output of 194.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.1 million tons [8]. - 314 independent coal washing plants had a daily refined coal output of 27.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons [8]. - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1916.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42.91 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.28% [8]. - The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Meng 5 refined coal was 1366, with a converted futures price of 1146 [8]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 34 yuan/ton [8]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 39.40 percentage points [8]. - The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons [8] 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro: This month, the LPR remained unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan for stable growth in the steel industry, aiming to balance supply and demand. Some import ports will be closed from October 1 - 7, 2025 [9]. - Overseas: The US will impose tariffs on some products from October 1, and South Korea imposed temporary anti - dumping duties on certain steel products [9]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate of mines has increased for two consecutive weeks, some coal types have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has continued to rise, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Strategy: Before the holiday, funds are reducing positions, market sentiment is falling, and downstream replenishment is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or hold no positions in the main contract [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Market - As of September 26, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts was 906,800 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 lots [13]. - As of September 26, the spread between the coking coal 5 - 1 contracts was 85.0, a week - on - week decrease of 17.0 points [13]. - As of September 26, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 100 lots [19]. - As of September 26, the ratio of the January futures contracts of coke and coking coal was 1.41, unchanged from the previous week [19] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of September 25, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110 yuan/ton [27]. - As of September 26, the basis of coking coal was - 54.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 69.0 points [27] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Mining and Coal Washing - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8%. The daily average raw coal output was 194.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.1 million tons. Raw coal inventory was 458.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.3 million tons. The daily average refined coal output was 77.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons. Refined coal inventory was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.8 million tons [31]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 38.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80%. The daily refined coal output was 27.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons. Refined coal inventory was 310.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 million tons [31] 3.3.2. Coking and Steel - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The daily coke output was 53.12 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 million tons. Coke inventory was 39.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.67 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 856.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.06 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.76 days [35]. - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 34 yuan/ton; in different regions, the average profit per ton of coke in Shanxi was - 24 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 20 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 4 yuan/ton [51]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 796.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.73 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.89 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 days. The pulverized coal injection inventory was 420.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.85 million tons. The available days of pulverized coal injection were 12.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 days [51] 3.3.3. Inventory - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1916.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42.91 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.28% [35]. - The import coking coal inventory of 16 ports was 496.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.47 million tons. Among them, the coking coal inventory of 3 ports in North China was 221.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.97 million tons; 2 ports in Northeast China was 41.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.70 million tons; 9 ports in East China was 128.50 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.80 million tons; 2 ports in South China was 106.00 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00 million tons [39] 3.3.4. Production - In August 2025, China's raw coal output was 39049.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%; from January to August, the cumulative output was 316517.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [55]. - In July 2025, China's coking coal output was 4089.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25 million tons [55] 3.3.5. Import - In 2024, China's coal imports were 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, reaching a record high. Among them, the cumulative import of coking coal was 121.895 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.62% [59]. - In August, China's total imports were 1016.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [59]