Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market has experienced a strong rebound, with the main contract rising by 7.88% on July 21, reaching a new high of 1006 yuan/ton, marking a technical bull market with an over 40% increase since the low on June 4 [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance remains tight, driven by coal mine shutdowns in Shanxi, which have hindered supply recovery while downstream demand remains robust [3]. - Significant declines in coal mine inventories and accelerated port inventory reductions have intensified market supply constraints, further supporting price increases [3]. - The first round of price increases in the coke market has been implemented, with a second round starting this week, creating a resonance effect between coking coal and coke prices [3]. Market Sentiment Shift - A fundamental shift in market sentiment has been a key driver of price increases, with previous price declines attributed to concerns over reduced export demand [4]. - The "export rush" phenomenon indicates limited impacts from trade frictions, and as supply trends downward, prices have begun to rebound [4]. - The release of delivery pressure from the coking coal 2505 contract and the peak production period passing have created favorable conditions for price recovery [4]. - Increased downstream purchasing demand from coking plants, steel mills, and traders has been observed as market expectations have shifted positively [4]. Additional Support Factors - The commencement of a major infrastructure project in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, has significantly boosted market expectations [4]. - Upcoming policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are expected to further strengthen market confidence [4].

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has increased by over 4%, currently priced at 840.5 yuan per ton [1]