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大幅反弹,焦煤这波能稳住吗?
对冲研投· 2025-06-04 11:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the coal and coke market, highlighting supply surplus as a fundamental issue and a recent rebound in prices due to improved market sentiment after a period of decline [4][6]. Market Analysis - The primary reason for the recent price decline is the significant oversupply of coal, with a notable drop in prices since March, where the price of coal fell over 180 points and the price of imported coal dropped by approximately 140 yuan/ton [6][7]. - A rebound in coal prices was observed post-holiday, with coking coal prices increasing by over 7% as of June 4, indicating a temporary recovery after a sharp decline [6][8]. Spot Market - The spot market for coking coal has not shown significant recovery, with recent auctions in Shanxi resulting in price declines or unsold lots, and the price of raw coal at the Mengxi port around 717 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Downstream steel mills and coking enterprises have reduced their inventories, leading to a significant accumulation of coal inventory upstream, reaching near historical highs [7]. Profit Situation - Profit pressures are evident, particularly for high-sulfur lean coal and weak caking coal, which are nearing cash flow costs, indicating potential marginal production cuts in the near future [7][8]. - The production capacity of high-sulfur lean coal and weak caking coal in Shanxi is around 20 million tons, and any reduction in supply could provide short-term support for the market [7]. Future Outlook - The third quarter is traditionally a slow season for steel demand, with expectations of a decline in coal and coke demand as well [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic sentiment and potential changes in coal policies for future market developments [8].