证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 煤炭开采 盼天寒，促需求，暖煤价 行情回顾（2025.11.24~2025.11.28）： 中信煤炭指数 3744.82 点，下跌 0.54%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.18pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 29 位。 在前期我们发布的《"现实需求"是当下驱动煤价上行的核心》报告中，指出进入 采暖季后，"投机需求"基本缺失，"现实需求"是驱动当前阶段煤价运行的主要 因素，即"寒潮来袭→降温→电厂日耗增加→终端采购强度提升→煤价上涨"。 自步入采暖季至今，大面积寒潮迟迟未至，全国大部分地区气温处于正常水平， 电厂日耗虽季节性攀升，但同比降幅甚至走扩，导致电厂去库时点延后，电厂采 购力度不及预期（以长协拉运为主），煤价缺乏上行动力，因此只能通过震荡调 整方式消化前期涨幅，且在供应受限背景下，对煤价调整幅度无需过度担忧。下 周，全国多数地区即将迎来大降温，据中国天气网报道，"一场将影响我国大部 地区的冷空气明起登场，11 月 29 日夜间至 12 月 3 日，我国自北向南将逐渐迎 来大风和明显降温，中央气象台已发布寒潮蓝色预警 ...

行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 板块回调，重视当前时点煤炭红利价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月以来，受煤炭需求较弱影响，煤价下跌也致板块回调。煤炭后期是否还有配置机会？我们 认为，虽然电厂弱需求高库存制约了煤价上涨空间，然而港口库存同比偏低、进口煤量较低&安 监高压下煤炭供应偏紧也使得价格回调空间有限，因此板块回调后，具备盈利稳健和高股息特 性的红利标的性价比逐渐显现。考虑到年末险资的红利配置需求，当前时点重视煤炭红利的配 置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 板块回调，重视当前时点煤炭红 ...

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 2025 年煤焦行情大起大落，而煤炭政策的转变起到绝对性作用，不仅仅在于修正供需失衡的局面，更重要的是帮助市场重拾信心，引导 价格回归理性。然而价格的剧烈波动仍然对于市场造成巨大影响，导致市场参与者难以有效规避风险...... 煤焦供需维持平衡，价格波动有望下降 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 本期分析研究员 从业资格号:F3054449 投资咨询号:Z0016137 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 邢亚文 期货研究报告 | 焦煤焦炭年报 2025-11-30 煤焦供需维持平衡，价格波动有望下降 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邮箱：xingyawen@htfc.com 从业 ...

行 业 研 究 4022 煤炭 2025 年 11 月 29 日 调整之后煤价仍有上行空间 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 816 元/吨， 周环比-18 元/吨，内蒙产地价持平、山西产地价大跌、陕西产地价微 涨。截至 2025 年 11 月 28 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 550 万 吨，环比-0.8 万吨，年同比-6.8%。本周电厂日耗小跌，电厂库存小涨， 秦港库存大涨，截至 11 月 24 日，动力煤库存指数为 191.5（+2.7）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 89.1%（+0.3pct）和 83.7%（-0.2pct）， 仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 11 月 28 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1670 元/吨，周环比-110 元/吨，山西产地价大跌，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 11 月 28 日， 523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 76.4 万吨（+0.6 万吨），年同比-4.1%， 532 家精煤库存 223.9 万吨（+38 万吨），年同比-30.9%；甘其毛都蒙 煤通关量 18.8 ...

Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The current macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened after a long - term correction. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but it is difficult for the price to fall significantly further unless there are macro - risk events or a collapse in coal prices. It is also necessary to pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore sector [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level. Manganese silicon's calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia at - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi at - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly output of manganese silicon is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level; production profit continues to be in the red; output continues to decline; rebar output remains low while pig iron output remains high; inventory is still at a relatively high level; the tender volume of HeSteel Group has decreased, and the tender price has stabilized month - on - month. The manganese silicon futures price showed weak performance last week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia's is - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi's is - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 2687.38 tons, a cumulative increase of 234.58 tons or 9.56% year - on - year. As of November 21, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 429.6 tons, up 3.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore is 58.1 tons, up 4.8 tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore is 100.9 tons, up 8.3 tons week - on - week [30][33][36]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 1.23 tons or 0.15% lower than the same period last year [44]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and start - up rate data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in November 2025 is 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 3700 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 12.17 tons, up 0.03 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 712 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate is 35.06%, down 2.6 pct month - on - month, continuing to decline [58][61][62]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's data is 36.8 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In November, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.84 days, up 0.14 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory have rebounded slightly month - on - month but are still at a relatively low level in the same period [76]. 3.6. Graphical Trend Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly at the lower - edge support of the range, with a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. At the daily - line level, the price showed a weak trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [79]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is of low cost - effectiveness [95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year [94]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level; production profit continues to be in the red; output decreases slightly; pig iron output remains high, and the demand for metallic magnesium has rebounded; inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume and price have decreased month - on - month. Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to decline slowly, with a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 1.36%. At the daily - line level, the price is oscillating downward along the downward channel since July this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to its performance at the key support level of 5328 yuan/ton [95]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics [100]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas: Inner Mongolia is 5774 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 5710 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is 5898 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of semi - coke small materials is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111][108]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 5.52 tons or 1.24% higher than the same period last year [116]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and proportion data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in November 2025 is 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month and up 1216 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 7.12 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year [125]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the price of metallic magnesium in Fugu area is 16050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the calculated export profit of ferrosilicon is - 13 yuan/ton, continuing to decline week - on - week and at a low level in the same period. From January to October 2025, the total overseas crude steel output is 7.13 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.01% year - on - year [128][131][132]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week

（来源：果业研究） 来源：果业研究 期货做时间长了，其实就那么点东西，除了个别品种产业即时信息复杂以外，宏观、政策、技术都没啥 学的。新手存在一个巨大的误区，就是想交流，想找稳定盈利的圣杯，或者得到一个消息，让自己大赚 一笔。就差只想给银行卡，让别人给打钱了。贪婪之心，让人一步一步落入陷阱。 期货市场是什么，是朋友，是知己，不应该把市场当成敌人，别想着征服市场，搞斗争哲学那一套短期 或许有甜头，但是一直跟市场斗智斗勇，最后结果不一定会很好，即便是赢了，也非常惊险，非常惨 烈。 东方不亮西方亮，不用过分纠结，越是杠，方法不对，努力白费，赚个啥钱啊！天天想赚钱，现实是天 天亏钱，那就没意思了，与其折磨自己，不如放过自己。期货这个行业有瘾，究其原因，一是有赌的成 分，运气占一定因素，二是来钱快，有快感，尤其是轻松啥也不干就能大赚，甚至一夜暴富，赚过快 钱，谁还愿意去赚慢钱，赚辛苦钱。所以，一入期货深似海，越是恨，就越是不甘，就越欲罢不能。 今年能赚大钱的品种不多，黄金、白银、碳酸锂、多晶硅、焦煤，如果做到这几个品种，而且做对了， 可能能大赚一点，沪铜、沪锡、棕榈油、氧化铝、玻璃纯碱、鸡蛋、生猪、苹果、橡胶如果节奏踩 ...

在过去的近一个月的时间里，全球的宏观运行呈现以下一些特征： 第一， 美元流动性出现了明显的反复，虽然美联储降息和缩表不断落地，但美联储尝 试释放中性信号而避免释放过于鸽派的信息，其对于美债收益率曲线和美元汇 率稳定的诉求较为强烈，这引发了美元资产的回落并把紧张向非美地区传导； 第二，进入到 10 月份之后，伴随美元流动性的反复而出现的宏观现象是经贸 和地缘局势的扰动，在经贸问题上，特朗普的 TACO 交易再现，中美领导人的 APEC 会议上的会晤还是平稳落地了，但特朗普访华时间延后。虽然中东的局 势没有进一步恶化，但是在俄乌仍然焦灼的背景下，地缘风险又有向亚洲蔓延 的特征；第三，面对外部的不确定性，在美联储降息之际，国内的经济政策亦 有一些动作，比如央行宣布恢复国债的购买，但整体来看经济政策的变动不大。 商业银行准备金的大幅回落，从而引发了流动性的压力 升，这倒逼了美联储停止缩表以及美国政府结束停摆 相应大类资产运行则呈现出以下几个方面的特征： 第一，在此前"复苏" 交易和"衰退"交易并存在定价体系下，进入到 10 月份之后随着美元流动性 的压力再现，大类资产的定价整体朝着避险甚至"滞胀"交易进行了回摆，商 ...

每经AI快讯，11月28日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.14%，沪银涨1.41%，沪铜涨 0.48%，铁矿涨0.13%，沪锡涨1.66%，焦煤涨0.19%，玻璃涨0.38%，原油涨0.22%。 ...

| | | | 11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月28日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。本周螺纹表需小幅回落，产量同步下滑，库存继续下降。热卷需求回落，产量继续回升，库存缓慢下降, 压力仍有待缓解。铁水产量回落，下游承接能力不足，钢厂整体延续亏损状态，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，供应压力逐步 缓解，关注唐山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，地 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 黑色系周度报告 新纪元期货研究 11/28/2025 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | 现货价格 | 基差（未折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/28 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3057 | 3110 | 53 | 2 | 3250 | 140 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3270 | 3302 | 32 | 1 | 3290 | -12 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 786 | 794 | 9 | 1 | 805 | 11 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1615 | 1575 | -40 | -2 | 1770 | 196 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1103 | 1067 | -36 | -3 | 1510 | 443 | | 玻璃 | FG601 | 987 | 1053 | 66 | 7 | 1090 | 37 | | 纯碱 | ...