Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Continue to fluctuate. Spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday with reduced trading volume. The industry's weekly production, sales, and inventory improved, but the improvement rate decreased. Plate demand has reached the seasonal peak, while building materials still have room to grow. Due to increased geopolitical differences, the strong cost support logic has weakened, and the unilateral trend has turned to a fluctuating pattern. Consider long basis or cash - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Supply - demand situation has improved, and costs are supported. The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, while the production of silicomanganese decreased. Steel mill demand improved significantly, and non - steel demand also provided marginal support. Ferrosilicon inventory decreased, and silicomanganese inventory increased slightly, with overall inventory pressure under control. Manganese ore prices are strong, providing cost support [2][4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The sentiment in the spot market has further cooled. Auction failure rates are high, and prices are mainly falling. The high oil price story is affecting the market, and the actual price increase of coke is slower than expected, leading to a cooling of the bullish sentiment. Consider taking profits on the previously recommended coke hedging strategy [5]. - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly in a high - level fluctuation. Due to the undetermined negotiation between Sinosteel and BHP, prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, prices are also difficult to break through upwards. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the iron ore futures [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On March 31, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3146.00 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan (- 0.60%); HC2610 closed at 3310.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan (- 0.27%); J2609 closed at 1787.00 yuan/ton, down 56.00 yuan (- 3.04%); JM2609 closed at 1278.00 yuan/ton, down 79.50 yuan (- 5.86%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3121.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan (- 0.48%); HC2605 closed at 3294.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan (- 0.33%); J2605 closed at 1701.50 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan (- 3.13%); JM2605 closed at 1148.50 yuan/ton, down 69.50 yuan (- 5.71%) [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On March 31, the coil - rebar spread was 173.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the rebar - ore ratio was 3.86, unchanged; the coal - coke ratio was 1.48, up 0.04; the rebar disk profit was - 120.70 yuan/ton, up 16.25 yuan; the coking disk profit was 174.00 yuan/ton, up 35.12 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On March 31, Shanghai rebar was 3200.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan [1]. - **Other**: On March 31, Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ganqimao Du's coking coal was 1310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port's PB was 785.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Gradually enter the long basis opportunity for hot - rolled coils [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt the strategy of short - term long positions on dips [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral position should be on the sidelines. Take profits on the previously recommended cash - futures positive arbitrage positions [7].

Price Index Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose significantly in March, reaching 1103 points, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% compared to the end of February[3] - The energy index increased by 25.3%, while the chemical index surged by 32.4%, but the non-ferrous index fell by 9.5% month-on-month[4] Commodity Price Movements - In the week of March 16-20, five energy commodities saw price increases of over 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the monitored items[4] - The average price of coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 1.7%, while the chemical price index surged by 33.8% month-on-month[5] Real Estate Market - As of March 23, the second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.0%, 1.8%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively[5] - The second-hand housing prices in these cities have seen significant highs over the past year, with peaks recorded at 159.44, 192.67, 181.71, and 251.13 points[6] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 13.2% in March, with significant declines in prices for battery cells and polysilicon[6] - Lithium carbonate futures prices decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, while DRAM spot prices fell between 5.3% and 8.9%[9] Shipping and Logistics - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 9.0% in the fourth week of March, with significant increases in shipping rates to Los Angeles and New York[7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 5.1% month-on-month, indicating a mixed outlook for shipping costs[8] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 12.7% in March, while key vegetable prices dropped by 10.9%[9] - The price index for non-food items, represented by the ICPI, decreased slightly to 99.67, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[10]

Group 1: Coking Coal Price Data - The latest price of Dantangou low-sulfur main coking coal is 1524, with a daily change of +10, a weekly change of +60, a monthly change of +39, and an annual change of +317 [1] - The latest price of Huangjiagou lean coal is 703, with a monthly change of +52 and an annual change of +203 [1] - The latest price of Shenjiamao lean main coking coal is 1288, with a monthly change of +118 and an annual change of +226 [1] - The latest price of Meng 5 raw coal is 1098, with a daily change of -43, a weekly change of -73, a monthly change of +85, and an annual change of +248 [1] - The latest price of Meng 4 raw coal is 1070, with a daily change of -30, a weekly change of -30, a monthly change of +100, and an annual change of +190 [1] - The latest price of PLV (in US dollars) is 222, with a daily change of -1, a weekly change of -2, a monthly change of +7, and an annual change of +39 [1] - The latest price of PMV (in US dollars) is 222, with a daily change of -1, a weekly change of -2, a monthly change of +7, and an annual change of +38 [1] - The latest price of HCC (in US dollars) is 204, with a weekly change of +3, a monthly change of +14, and an annual change of +23 [1] - The latest price of SEMISOFT (in US dollars) is 123, with a monthly change of +8 and an annual change of +13 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Data - The latest value of the 01 contract is 1476.0, with a daily change of -67.5, a weekly change of -92.0, a monthly change of +56.0, and an annual change of +350.0 [1] - The latest value of the 05 contract is 1148.5, with a daily change of -65.5, a weekly change of -101.0, a monthly change of +21.5, and an annual change of +147.0 [1] - The latest value of the 09 contract is 1278.0, with a daily change of -74.5, a weekly change of -93.5, a monthly change of +56.0, and an annual change of +203.0 [1] Group 3: Basis and Spread Data - The 1-month basis is -378.0, with a daily change of +24.5, a weekly change of +19.0, and a monthly change of +2.0 [1] - The 5-month basis is -50.5, with a daily change of +22.5, a weekly change of +28.0, and a monthly change of +36.5 [1] - The 9-month basis is -180.0, with a daily change of +31.5, a weekly change of +20.5, and a monthly change of +2.0 [1] - The 1 - 5 month spread is 327.5, with a daily change of -2.0, a weekly change of +9.0, a monthly change of +34.5, and an annual change of +203.0 [1] - The 5 - 9 month spread is -129.5, with a daily change of +9.0, a weekly change of -7.5, a monthly change of -34.5, and an annual change of -56.0 [1] - The 9 - 1 month spread is -198.0, with a daily change of -7.0, a weekly change of -1.5, and an annual change of -147.0 [1] Group 4: Data Graphs and Inventory Information (Indicating Time Periods) - There are data graphs related to Shenjiamao lean main coking coal from September to December [3] - Data related to Mongolian coal warehouse receipts are presented [4] - There are data related to coking plant inventory from July to December [6] - Data about Mongolian 5 raw coal from July to November are shown [7] - There are data related to the main contract basis from May to November [8] - There are data related to steel mill inventory [10] - There are data related to coal washing plant inventory from July to October [11] - There are data related to coal mine production and coal washing plant production from January to December [12] - There are data related to high - quality low - volatility coal, port and border inventory from May to December [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Currently, the supply and demand of steel are seasonally recovering, with both production and demand on the rise but not yet peaking. Last week, the increase in production was relatively slow, with an increase of 30,000 tons in hot metal production and stable production of the five major steel products. The increase in the production of off - balance - sheet steel products was also not significant, and the production increment may have flowed more to steel billets. The apparent demand has increased, and the increase in apparent demand is greater than that in production, so the inventory continues to decline. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that for rebar, and the domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export orders remain stable. Affected by the environmental protection - related production cuts of steel mills in the first quarter, although the demand is weak, the inventory reduction is acceptable, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. From the perspective of the steel supply - demand situation, there is insufficient upward driving force, and the upward elasticity of steel prices mainly comes from the raw material side. Recently, crude oil has strengthened again, and the expected production cut of BHP has made raw materials stronger, which supports steel prices [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract fluctuated weakly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The sharp decline in energy products such as crude oil and coal has led to a weakening of commodities. Currently, geopolitical games continue, the BHP negotiation is undetermined, and the resumption of hot metal production is the focus of future iron ore trading. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, with the reduction concentrated in the three major Australian mines due to the impact of a super typhoon on the shipment of some Australian ports. On the demand side, the hot metal production has increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills have carried out rational maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, domestic demand is relatively weak, and the situation of steel exports is acceptable, with the reduction in the Middle East being offset by the increase in Southeast Asia. In the inventory aspect, the inventories of steel mills and ports have both decreased slightly. With the recent decline in the arrival volume and the high - level continuous port clearance under the resumption of production of steel mills, the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly or remain unchanged. Looking forward to the future, under the influence of factors such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, changeable market sentiment, the resumption of production of steel mills, and the undetermined BHP negotiation, the main iron ore contract will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 780 - 830 [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Coke**: Yesterday, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the mainstream coke enterprises initiated the first - round price increase on March 23, which is expected to be implemented on April 1. The increase in coking coal prices provides cost support for the coke price increase, and the port price fluctuates with the futures. On the supply side, the coke price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, the sharp increase in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses, and the coking operation starts to increase. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, the steel price has rebounded at a low level, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, coking plants are reducing inventory, while steel mills and ports are increasing inventory, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. The coke supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined, and the coke futures had fully anticipated the coke price increase before, and now there is an expectation of a peak - to - decline. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coke 2605 contract is 1600 - 1800 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. In the spot market, the auction transactions of Shanxi spot have started to decline, and the Mongolian coal quotation has followed the futures down. After the price increase, the restocking demand has weakened, and downstream enterprises with low profits are more resistant to high - priced resources. On the supply side, coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the daily coal production is gradually increasing. In terms of imported coal, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the customs clearance remains at a high level, with a slight decline recently. On the demand side, steel mills are actively resuming production, the hot metal production is increasing, and the restocking demand has recovered but resists high - priced raw materials. In the inventory aspect, washing plants, coke enterprises, steel mills, ports, and ports are all increasing inventory, while coal mines are reducing inventory, and the overall inventory has started to show a change of active restocking by downstream enterprises. Trump's statement that the war will end soon has caused a sharp decline in energy, natural gas, and downstream chemical products at a high level. The continuous conflict affects the macro - sentiment. The coking coal spot has cooled down and declined. It is necessary to focus on the macro - impact and industrial supply - demand changes. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and the reference range of the coking coal 2605 contract is 1050 - 1250 [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the ferrosilicon production decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the production area's operating rate also declined. Only Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have better profits under the repair of manufacturers' profits, but Qinghai and Gansu still have serious losses. In terms of steel - making demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of non - steel demand, the daily production of magnesium ingots is at a relatively high level, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with the previous period. The ferrosilicon export orders are not good, and the cancellation of orders has also weakened. In terms of cost, the price of semi - coke has been slightly adjusted upwards. Pay attention to the settlement electricity price changes in the production areas in March. The cost side of ferrosilicon has certain support. Looking forward to the future, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon both increase, and the cost is affected by coal. However, the current supply growth rate is relatively slow, and the supply and demand are still in a balanced state. Pay attention to the subsequent production and cost changes. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 5800 - 6200 [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the main silicomanganese contract declined significantly, mainly due to the repeated geopolitical conflicts and the sharp decline in energy costs such as crude oil and coal. In terms of fundamentals, last week, the silicomanganese supply continued to decline on a week - on - week basis, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks. The production pressure in the southern region is still relatively high, and the loss amplitude has decreased compared with the previous period. Only the immediate profit of Inner Mongolia in the northern production area is on the verge of profit and loss, but the manganese ore cost of manufacturers is mostly the ore at the previous low price, so the profit should be better than the calculation. Pay attention to the implementation of silicomanganese production cuts in the future. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, slightly lower than expected. Some steel mills carried out routine maintenance, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Currently, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, and domestic demand is relatively weak. In terms of cost, the supply and demand of manganese ore may become marginally looser in the near future. With the increase in arrivals and the expected contraction in demand, the port inventory has started to increase. However, due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts, the impact of energy prices on the comprehensive costs of shipping and mining still exists, and the manganese ore price may run at a high level. In general, in the short term, the market sentiment is changeable due to international geopolitical conflicts. There is an expectation of silicomanganese production cuts, which may weaken the demand for manganese ore. Pay attention to the supply change of silicomanganese in April. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, with the reference range of 5700 - 6800 [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous value, and the prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts also decreased, with decreases of 14 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, North China hot - rolled coils, East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar increased by 11 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.1 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The production of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.2 tons to 839.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.0%. The rebar production decreased by 5.5 tons to 197.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.7%, among which the electric - furnace production decreased by 1.5 tons to 32.7 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.3%, and the converter production decreased by 4.0 tons to 165.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.4 tons to 305.6 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 48.4 tons to 1897.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.5 tons to 861.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.0 tons to 453.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 1.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 10.4%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 19.5 to 888.0, with a growth rate of 2.2%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 17.3 to 225.4, with a growth rate of 8.3%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 3.1 to 313.6, with a growth rate of 1.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Futures - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as Coking Fine, PB Fine, etc. decreased to varying degrees, and the 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.5, with a decrease rate of 2.3%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.0 to 17.5, with a decrease rate of 10.3% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased to varying degrees, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap remained unchanged [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 154.7 tons to 2426.3 tons, with a growth rate of 6.8%. The global shipment volume decreased by 671.9 tons to 2472.4 tons, with a decrease rate of 21.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 2200.9 tons to 9763.8 tons, with a decrease rate of 18.4% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 7.8 tons to 313.2 tons, with a decrease rate of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 6072.2 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 6817.7 tons to 0.0 tons, with a decrease rate of 100.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 98.1 tons to 17000.31 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 55.5 tons to 8978.6 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 52 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 3.0% and 3.0% respectively [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 0.0% and 1.5% respectively. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts decreased by 66 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively, with decrease rates of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.1%. The production of raw coal decreased by 5.6 tons to 875.3 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.64%, and the production of clean coal decreased by 2.7 tons to 445.9 tons, with a decrease rate of 0.6% [5]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.9 tons to 231.1 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.5 tons to 64.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 997.8 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.2 tons to 90.1 tons, with a decrease rate of 4.4%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5 tons to 691.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 42.5 tons to 1047.5 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 8.5 tons to 782.4 tons, with a growth rate of 1.1%. The port inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 216.1 tons, with a growth rate of 4.2% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot - The closing price of the fer

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coke: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as the decline in coal - coke prices and the recovery of manufacturing PMI. The fundamentals of rebar have no prominent contradictions and weak driving forces, so it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The iron ore market is influenced by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, with a high - level oscillation trend. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors like production, demand, and macro - disturbances, showing an oscillating and weakening trend. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by cost, production, and external factors, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, the spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume declined. The manufacturing PMI in March rose, but the coal - coke price drop affected the black commodity sentiment. The rebar fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. The iron ore futures price dropped, the supply was affected by the hurricane in Australia and the increase in Brazil's shipments, the demand (hot metal output) increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped, the spot price decreased, the supply was basically normal with improved shipments, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal output. However, the delay in coke price increase and limited profit space made the procurement more cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures price dropped, the spot price was stable, the supply was relatively stable, and the demand was rigid but the procurement willingness was average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, and many production enterprises planned to reduce production due to cost issues. The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support, but the inventory is still high. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, the spot price in some areas decreased, the production in March increased compared to the previous month but decreased compared to the same period last year, the demand had a purchase price from a steel mill, the cost increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the Middle East situation and cost changes need to be continuously monitored [2] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 5 - 10 and 10 - 1 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [3] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the basis of the 05 and 10 contracts of rebar [3] - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions of various varieties are shown, like the spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [3] - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on the profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) of different varieties is provided [3] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different contract periods [16][17][20][22] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of different inter - period contracts of various varieties, such as the 05 - 10 and 10 - 01 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil [25][26][30][31][32][34][36] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [37][39][41] - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2021 to 2026 [42][46] 3.4 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [48] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures field [48] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [48] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [49]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the focus on mid-cap blue-chip manufacturing opportunities, particularly in the context of heightened global energy security demands, with solar energy transitioning from a "low-carbon option" to a "strategic necessity" [6][9][18] - The domestic large aircraft industry is expected to accelerate its development and supply chain construction, as the urgency for supply chain autonomy increases due to geopolitical changes [10][11] - Geopolitical disturbances are providing momentum for domestic new energy vehicles (NEVs) to expand overseas, with significant increases in overseas orders for NEVs from companies like BYD and GAC [13][18] Group 2 - The report notes that pig prices have dropped to historical lows, with the national average price falling below 9.4 yuan/kg, leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the industry [14][15] - Coking coal prices are expected to continue rising, supported by increased demand from overseas infrastructure recovery and improved export systems for coking coal [16][18] - The report indicates that the overall risk in mid-cap stocks is manageable, with short-term sentiment showing slight recovery, particularly in the mid-cap indices [21][22] Group 3 - Industry trend signals are decreasing, with only the electric power equipment and public utilities sectors maintaining strong trends, while cyclical sectors show weakened trend signals [25][26] - The report highlights that the short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty are rising in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and coal [26][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report; it mainly offers various commodity and index-related data, including basis, spreads, and ratios 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from March 25 to March 31, 2026, shows values such as -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4, and -46.4 respectively; the spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt have corresponding basis and ratio data from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemical products (natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; also includes spread data between different contract months and cross - product spread data [7] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [11] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided [21] 3.4.2 London Market - LME data for non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on March 31, 2026, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [27] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc.) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are provided; spread data between different contract months and cross - product ratio data are also included [34] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from March 25 to March 31, 2026, are presented; spread data between different contract months are also included [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoint - The steel price is currently oscillating and weakening, mainly dragged down by coking coal on the raw material side. The steel price is temporarily following the changes in the raw material side, and the subsequent focus is on the downstream demand situation [2][3] Summary by Related Catalog Industry Data - In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - In March, the actual production of tube billet steel mills was 1.3393 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 107,600 tons. The estimated output in April is 1.3542 million tons [2] - On March 31, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,410 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 86 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 21 yuan/ton [2] Industry Events - On March 30, the UK Trade Remedies Authority announced an anti - absorption review of the anti - dumping measures applicable to imported excavators from China to decide whether to maintain or adjust the current anti - dumping duty rate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Production decreased month - on - month, apparent demand increased, inventory entered the destocking phase. Overall supply - demand is relatively balanced, but East China inventory is still high. With weak domestic policy expectations, strong external disturbances, and large fluctuations in raw material prices, steel may fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased slightly but the absolute level is still high. Overall supply - demand is relatively stable. The market is greatly affected by external disturbances, and iron ore provides cost support. It may fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and external ore shipments dropped significantly. The fundamentals have improved overall, and the price is oscillating strongly. However, large fluctuations in the crude oil system may affect capital sentiment [1][8] - **Coke**: Coke enterprise profits decreased slightly, production remained stable, and some areas reduced production due to environmental protection restrictions. Pig iron production increased month - on - month, and coke enterprise inventory continued to decline. Overall supply - demand is relatively balanced, and it moves in a range following coking coal [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mine daily production continued to recover. The online auction failure rate increased recently, downstream replenishment and speculative demand weakened, and coal mine clean coal inventory maintained normal destocking. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained at a high level. Spot quotes mainly fluctuate with the futures market. External disturbances are still uncertain, and the energy substitution logic is gradually weakening [1][16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production in the production area decreased slightly, demand decreased month - on - month, and inventory decreased by 12,000 tons this period. Australian mainstream manganese mines' May quotations continued to rise, providing strong cost support. A large steel mill in Hebei launched a supplementary tender for silicon - manganese alloy in March, with a quantity of 5,100 tons, and the tender result is pending [1][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production in the production area decreased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory decreased significantly by about 4,500 tons this period. The Lanthanum carbon procurement price of a mainstream calcium carbide enterprise in Inner Mongolia increased. In the short term, the fundamentals are good, and the market may move in a range following manganese silicon [1][20] - **Glass**: Production profit is still poor, cold - repair production lines increased, the start - up rate continued to decline, and production decreased. Energy cost increases provide cost support, but demand is still weak, downstream purchasing willingness is not strong, and high inventory restricts the upward space of the market. It may maintain low - level operation under weak supply and demand [1][24] - **Soda Ash**: The production side is relatively stable, some projects are under maintenance, but overall production remains high. The demand side is still weak, the daily melting volume of glass remains low, and purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Inventory is still at a high level in the same period, with obvious pressure. External disturbances intensify, and rising energy prices drive up the overall cost. It may operate in a low - level range [1][28] 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Futures prices (e.g., RB01 at 3188, up 15; RB05 at 3139, up 15; RB10 at 3168, up 17), spot prices (e.g., Tangshan billet at 2980, up 20; Shanghai rebar at 3230, up 10), and various price differences and basis data are provided [2] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Futures prices (e.g., HC01 at 3323, up 12; HC05 at 3308, unchanged; HC10 at 3323, up 13), spot prices (e.g., Tianjin hot - rolled coil at 3230, up 10; Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3290, unchanged), and various price differences and basis data are provided [2] Iron Ore - Futures prices (e.g., i01 at 772, up 2; i05 at 813, up 1; i09 at 791, up 3), spot prices (e.g., PB powder at 786, unchanged; Yangdi powder at 695, unchanged), price differences, basis, freight rates, and spot index data are provided [6] Coke - Futures prices (e.g., J01 at 1923.0, down 3.0; J05 at 1753.5, up 1.5; J09 at 1842.0, up 2.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1230, unchanged), and various production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - Futures prices (e.g., JM01 at 1543.5, down 6.5; JM05 at 1214.0, down 5.0; JM09 at 1352.5, down 4.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang main coking coal at 1540, up 100), and various production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures prices (e.g., SM01 at 6658, up 30; SM05 at 6655, up 8; SM09 at 6646, up 20), spot prices (e.g., Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese 6517 at 6300, up 70), and various price differences, basis, production, and inventory data are provided [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices (e.g., SF01 at 6166, up 38; SF05 at 6066, up 54; SF09 at 6162, up 50), spot prices (e.g., Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72 at 5730, up 30), and various price differences, basis, production, and inventory data are provided [19] Glass - Futures market data (e.g., FG01 at 1266, down 7; FG05 at 1040, down 1; FG09 at 1182, up 3), basis, price differences, and spot market and industrial chain data (e.g., Hubei glass at 1080, unchanged; inventory at 7601 ten - thousand weight boxes, up 37.3%) are provided [23] Soda Ash - Futures market data (e.g., SA01 at 1346, down 14; SA05 at 1207, down 22; SA09 at 1292, down 18), basis, price differences, and spot market and industrial chain data (e.g., Shahe soda ash at 1190, down 20; inventory at 189.4 ten - thousand tons, up 19.3%) are provided [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a seasonal de - stocking state with total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills changing little, inventory declining and apparent demand rebounding. However, market expectations for the future are pessimistic. Rising crude oil prices support the futures price. Technically, the futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season with a rebound in the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills last week. Iron ore production cost has increased due to rising crude oil prices. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but are expected to improve. The futures price shows resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Total output changed little last week. Inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound, entering a seasonal de - stocking state. Market expectations for the future are pessimistic [2]. - **Cost**: Rising crude oil prices push up costs, supporting the futures price [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and may stabilize and rebound after testing the lower support level [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when there is a rally, with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - **Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, prices of related products like wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils, steel billet and scrap steel prices, steel mill production, inventory, and apparent demand data are provided [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and iron water production is expected to gradually increase [4]. - **Cost**: Rising crude oil prices increase the production cost of iron ore [4]. - **Supply**: Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Recent arrivals have increased, and port inventory has decreased but remains at a historical high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price shows resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, but it may also be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and be cautious about chasing up [4]. - **Data**: Iron ore futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, overseas shipments, sea freight, exchange rates, arrivals, port inventory, domestic mine production, and futures warehouse receipt data are provided [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Inner Mongolia Baite Metallurgical Building Materials Co., Ltd. reduced production of a 42000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnace from the night of March 31st, affecting the daily production of ferrosilicon - manganese by 300 tons [5]. - According to the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage plan, the floating value of coking coal long - term agreement in March 2026 decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared with February, a decline of 1.6% [6]. - From March 23rd - 29th, 2026, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1394.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.8 tons. The current inventory is slightly higher than the average level since the beginning of the year [6]. - The PMI of the steel industry in March 2026 was 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months, indicating the recovery of the steel industry [6].