煤炭价格企稳
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煤炭行业周报:冷空气影响仍存,成本支撑下供给预计收紧,预计煤价有望企稳-20251228
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-28 11:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that cold air impacts are still present, and with cost support, supply is expected to tighten, leading to a stabilization of coal prices. The demand side is supported by increased consumption due to cold weather, while supply may decrease as some coal mines reduce production after meeting annual targets [1][3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a slight decline in prices but a stable outlook due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of safety regulations and monitoring, especially with recent mining accidents, which may further tighten supply [1][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued new rules for the electricity market to adapt to changes in the energy system and market participants [7]. - New coal transportation infrastructure in Xinjiang aims to enhance efficiency and support green energy initiatives [7]. Price Trends - As of December 26, 2025, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 486, 576, and 672 CNY/ton for different grades, showing a week-on-week decline [1][8]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with specific prices reported for various regions [1][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal consumption has increased, while power plant inventories have decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][20]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports decreased, while outflow increased, leading to a rise in port inventories [20]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased slightly, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [15]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections [32].