Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton. In the port market, coal "anti - involution" reform supports coking coal futures, potentially boosting port methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability continue to pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and the mindset of inland operators, with the inland methanol market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, coal reform supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a weak supply - demand balance. Recent policies have a positive impact on the futures market and inland operators' mindset, with the inland market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation; rated neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 15, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated bullish. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 65.03 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons; rated bullish. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average; rated neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; rated bearish. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production this month, and northwest CTO factories are expected to purchase more methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is being actively sold, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained at 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port was at 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost was 2447 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value. The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 2395 yuan/ton, and in Fujian, it decreased by 10 yuan to 2430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price was 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value, and the number of registered warehouse receipts was 8716, a decrease of 118 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value, and the import spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory at East China ports was 42.48 tons, an increase of 0.81 tons from the previous value, and at South China ports, it was 22.55 tons, an increase of 5.51 tons from the previous value [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, etc. Different regions have various maintenance situations, such as shutdown for maintenance, planned or unplanned maintenance, and device load reduction [54]. - **Foreign Devices**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc., most devices are operating normally, but some have experienced maintenance or have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises with methanol - related operations are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units are under synchronous maintenance, while many other enterprises' units are operating stably, with some having future maintenance plans [56].