Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton. In the port market, coal "anti - involution" reform supports coking coal futures, potentially boosting port methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability continue to pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and the mindset of inland operators, with the inland methanol market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, coal reform supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a weak supply - demand balance. Recent policies have a positive impact on the futures market and inland operators' mindset, with the inland market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation; rated neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 15, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated bullish. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 65.03 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons; rated bullish. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average; rated neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; rated bearish. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production this month, and northwest CTO factories are expected to purchase more methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is being actively sold, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained at 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port was at 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost was 2447 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value. The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 2395 yuan/ton, and in Fujian, it decreased by 10 yuan to 2430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price was 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value, and the number of registered warehouse receipts was 8716, a decrease of 118 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value, and the import spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory at East China ports was 42.48 tons, an increase of 0.81 tons from the previous value, and at South China ports, it was 22.55 tons, an increase of 5.51 tons from the previous value [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, etc. Different regions have various maintenance situations, such as shutdown for maintenance, planned or unplanned maintenance, and device load reduction [54]. - **Foreign Devices**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc., most devices are operating normally, but some have experienced maintenance or have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises with methanol - related operations are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units are under synchronous maintenance, while many other enterprises' units are operating stably, with some having future maintenance plans [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, predicting that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade between 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port market may see inventory accumulation, which could limit price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract, the fundamentals show that the "anti - involution" reform of coal may support the methanol futures and spot prices in ports, but potential inventory accumulation could limit the increase. Inland, the market is in a state of low supply and demand, with prices expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The basis indicates that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures. Inventory data shows a decrease in social inventory in East and South China ports. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some domestic devices are shut down, the methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and there is external procurement demand from CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed operation, there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, the MTBE operation rate has decreased significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factory inventories in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed slightly, with the futures closing price rising by 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 220 to 9834, and the effective forecast remained at 0 [8]. - **Price differences**: The basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, and the import price difference decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton. The price differences between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei have increased [8]. - **Operation rate**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 million tons to 41.67 million tons, while that in South China ports increased by 2.04 million tons to 17.04 million tons [8]. - **Profit of production processes**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 290 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 479 yuan/ton [20]. - **External market prices**: The CFR China price increased by 2.56% to 280 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.91% to 333.5 US dollars/ton, and the price difference increased by 4 US dollars/ton to - 53.5 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Prices of traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [29]. - **Production profit and load of downstream products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 182 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 353 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88%. The production profit of acetic acid increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42%. The production profit of MTO increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 996 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [33][36][40][45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [56]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have planned shutdowns [57]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, and other regions are under maintenance or operating stably, with different operating conditions and maintenance plans [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic methanol market is expected to have a local upward trend, but the increase in some regions may be limited. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal boosts coking coal and coke futures, which may further support the spot and futures prices of methanol in ports. However, the concentrated arrival of imports next week may lead to inventory accumulation and limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and macro - external news. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer and demand. But with no inventory pressure on inland factories and continuous procurement demand from CTO factories in the northwest, the supply - demand balance remains stable. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling over - production in coal mines have pushed up the methanol futures market, which is positive for inland operators. The inland methanol market is expected to continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The short - term domestic methanol market has different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices may be affected by coal policies and import arrivals, while inland prices are influenced by the off - season, downstream profitability, and policies [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 2385 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2488 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 4.32%. In Hebei, the price rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - The futures price increased from 2365 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2519 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 6.51%. The basis showed fluctuations, with a weekly change of - 51 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased from 265 yuan/ton on July 18th to 315 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 50 - yuan increase. Natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. Coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 451 yuan/ton to 474 yuan/ton, a 334 - yuan increase [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a 3.81% decrease. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price increased from 270 dollars/ton on July 18th to 280 dollars/ton on July 25th, a 3.70% increase. CFR Southeast Asia price increased slightly from 330.5 dollars/ton to 333.5 dollars/ton, a 0.91% increase. The spread between them changed from - 60.5 dollars/ton to - 53.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased from 2388 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2470 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 3.44% increase. The import spread changed from - 3 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week, with a 0.00% change [26]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased from - 165 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 24.52% to 25.42%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 361 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.06% to 8.88%. Acetic acid production profit decreased from - 62 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 80.48% to 82.42% [27][29][35]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit decreased from - 932 yuan/ton on July 18th to - 1262 yuan/ton on July 25th. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week [39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 44.6 tons last week to 41.67 tons this week, a 2.93 - ton decrease. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 15 tons to 17.04 tons, a 2.04 - ton increase [43]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 8544 on July 18th to 10134 on July 25th, a 18.61% increase. Effective forecasts decreased from 1800 to 0, a 100.00% decrease [44]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's maintenance loss is 1950 tons, and Qinghai Zhonghao's is 9100 tons [47]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - In Iran, some methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, such as ZPC, Kaveh, etc. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar, most plants are operating normally, but some are under maintenance, such as QAFAC [48]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - In the northwest, most olefin and methanol - olefin integrated devices are operating normally or have specific operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical is operating stably. In other regions, the operating conditions of olefin devices also vary [49].