煤炭行业供需逆转
Search documents
煤炭行业三季度盈利转好
中国能源报· 2025-11-18 10:49
Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has shown significant improvement in performance during the third quarter, with a 20% increase in profitability compared to the previous quarter, driven by supply reduction and increased demand for electricity [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Following the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July, coal supply has decreased, with a notable shift from year-on-year growth to decline in raw coal supply [5]. - In the third quarter, China's industrial raw coal production was 1.18 billion tons, with monthly production showing year-on-year declines of 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% [5]. - Despite a decrease in coal supply, electricity consumption increased by 4.6% year-on-year, reaching 7.77 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters [5]. Price Recovery and Profit Improvement - Coal prices have rebounded significantly compared to the previous quarter, with the average price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port rising from 641.7 yuan/ton to 679 yuan/ton [6]. - The total profit of the coal industry in the third quarter reached 75.5 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase from the previous quarter [6]. Company Performance - In the third quarter, 23 coal companies reported a total coal production of 940 million tons and sales of 1.11 billion tons, with production and sales increasing by 1.9% and 6.2% respectively [8]. - The net profit of 37 listed coal companies in the third quarter was 29.94 billion yuan, a 22.83% increase from the previous quarter [8]. - Leading companies like China Shenhua reported a net profit of 14.7 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 13% from the previous quarter, driven by strong performance in the electricity sector [9]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with prices continuing to rise as the winter heating season approaches [11]. - The coal price at the Bohai Rim has reached 828 yuan/ton, exceeding the price at the beginning of the year, indicating a bullish market sentiment [11]. - The coal industry is anticipated to enter a sustained upward cycle, with fourth-quarter performance expected to fully recover [12].