消息面上，据期货日报，有知情人士告诉记者："7号上午有市场消息称，陕西省榆林市政府在相关会议 上通报称，根据国家发展改革委等六部委联合印发的文件，因2024—2025年电煤保供落实不到位，核增 产能的52处煤矿中，有26处煤矿被调出保供名单并核减产能1900万吨。对此，记者求证了多位产业和行 业人士。有煤矿人士告诉记者，上述消息属实，但对市场的实际影响不大。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股再度上扬，截至发稿，南戈壁(01878)涨5.34%，报2.17港元；中国神华 (01088)涨2.16%，报40.76港元；兖矿能源(01171)涨2.06%，报10.88港元；中煤能源(01898)涨0.73%，报 10.99港元。 山西证券认为，反内卷趋势未变，4季度业绩仍有改善预期，若价格长期高位运行，26年业绩仍具备修 复空间。股价下跌强化红利价值，可逢低配置。国海证券表示，展望2026年，"炭火暖意，天平微倾"， 行业供需关系预计将有改善，叠加政策托底，预计煤价中枢或有提升，预计北港动力煤价中枢在750元 左右、北港主焦煤均价在1550元左右，行业盈利能力有望得到一定修复。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，从大方向来看，煤炭开采行业供应端约束逻辑未变，需求端 可能阶段性起伏波动，价格亦呈现一定震荡和动态再平衡。展望2026年，"炭火暖意，天平微倾"，行业 供需关系预计将有改善，叠加政策托底，预计煤价中枢或有提升，预计北港动力煤价中枢在750元左 右、北港主焦煤均价在1550元左右，行业盈利能力有望得到一定修复。与此同时，低利率时代背景下， 煤炭板块的高股息价值是机构重要配置点。头部煤炭企业呈现"高盈利、高现金流、高资产质量、高分 红、高壁垒"等五高特征。建议低位把握煤炭板块的价值属性，维持煤炭开采行业"推荐"评级。 国海证券主要观点如下： 一、复盘动力煤：年内煤价V字走势，下半年查超产托底煤价回升 2025年港口动力煤均价697元/吨(截至2025/12/31，同比-158元/吨)，长协年度均价680元/吨(同比-22元/ 吨)。上半年煤炭供需宽松，企业以量换价加剧矛盾，煤价一度跌至接近600元/吨。7月份，查超产启动 打破以量换价负循环，7-11月全国原煤产量同比增速跌至-0.5%至-3.8%之间，与此同时火电需求回升叠 加冶金化工需求韧性较佳，煤炭库存显著去化，供需基 ...

2 现货市场 成文日期：20251225 报告周期: 日报 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799) 连指数目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 12 月 24 日,黑链指数以 112.33 点开盘,盘中震荡上行,最高 触及 112.92 点,最低探至 111.68 点,最终收于 112.66 点,环比上 一交易日微涨 0.3 点。总成交量 358.8 万手，环比减少 19.5 万手。 总持仓量降至 660.2 万手，较上一交易日减少 33232 手。 图 1：黑链指数分时图 风险揭示及免责声明 国金期货已取得中国证监会期货投资咨询业务资格的批复。本报告由国金期货有限责 任公司制作，未获得国金期货有限责任公司授权，任何单位和个人不得对本报告进行任何 形式的修改、复制和发布。 本文部分数据、图片、音频、视频均来源于网络搜索,版权归版权所有者所有,如有 侵权请联系我们。本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或我公司调研资料，我公司保证已经 审慎审核、甄别和判断信息内容,但由于信息获取和展示的局限性,我公司无法绝对保证 公开信息、第三方数据或调研对象提供材料的真实性、完整 ...

国金证券近日发布黑色金属周报：本周中信钢铁行业指数涨幅3.4%，跑赢上证综指1.5%。原料端，本 周铁矿价格小幅上涨，焦煤价格弱稳。据我们测算，本周国内长流程、短流程吨钢毛利分别环比-9.7 元、-7.4元，钢厂平均吨净利为-31.2元。据Mysteel统计，钢企盈利率在37.2%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳 定。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周行情综述 行业概况：本周中信钢铁行业指数涨幅3.4%，跑赢上证综指1.5%。原料端，本周铁矿价格小幅上涨， 焦煤价格弱稳。据我们测算，本周国内长流程、短流程吨钢毛利分别环比-9.7元、-7.4元，钢厂平均吨 净利为-31.2元。据Mysteel统计，钢企盈利率在37.2%，钢铁行业基本面底部稳定。 钢铁：本周国内热轧板卷价格涨跌互现，本周国内热轧板卷价格涨跌互现，全国24个主要市场3.0mm热 轧板卷价格均价为3342元/吨，较上周下降8元/吨；4.75mm热轧板卷均价为3288元/吨，较上周下降8元/ 吨。本周京津冀价格弱势下跌，成交偏弱。基本面，据Mysteel，目前市场现货价格基本都是低价促成 交为主，现货价格也是出现了升水状态。市场投机情绪差，刚需逢低补库为主。从产业端 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, with a rating reflecting an expected increase in the industry performance compared to the broader market [85]. Core Insights - The CITIC Steel Industry Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for steel mills is reported at -31.2 yuan per ton, with a profitability rate of 37.2% for steel companies, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals [10][11]. - The hot-rolled coil prices showed mixed trends, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3342 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan from the previous week. The market sentiment is weak, primarily driven by low-price promotions for transactions [11]. - The coking coal market is experiencing weak performance, with the main coking coal price at 1393 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week. The demand for coking coal remains subdued due to reduced consumption by downstream coke enterprises [12]. - Iron ore prices have slightly increased, with the average price for 61.5% Fe powder at 795 yuan per ton, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains constrained due to high port inventories [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The CITIC Steel Industry Index rose by 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5%. The average profit margin for long and short process steel production is reported at -9.7 yuan and -7.4 yuan per ton, respectively [10]. 1.2 Sub-industry Fundamentals Overview - The hot-rolled coil prices are fluctuating, with a noted decrease in prices across major markets. The market is characterized by weak demand and low speculative sentiment, with a focus on essential inventory replenishment [11]. 2.1 Profitability - The profitability rate for steel companies stands at 37.2%, indicating a stable bottom in the industry fundamentals despite negative profit margins [10]. 2.2 Operating Rates - The operating rates for steel mills are reported at 78.32%, with daily average pig iron production remaining stable, reflecting a cautious approach to raw material replenishment [13]. 3.1 Steel Prices - The average price for hot-rolled coils is reported at 3342 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease noted in the previous week [11]. 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coking coal prices remain stable at 1393 yuan per ton, while iron ore prices have seen a slight increase, indicating mixed trends in raw material pricing [12][13]. 4.1 Steel Supply and Demand Data - The report highlights the supply and demand dynamics within the steel industry, with a focus on the impact of environmental regulations and production adjustments by steel mills [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some indicators showing improvement while others reflect ongoing challenges in various sectors [2][3][20]. Group 2 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight increase to 5.17% as of December 14, up 1.05% from December 7, indicating a recovery in economic activity [2][8]. - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -17% in the second week of December, compared to -32% previously [2][13]. - The prices of three major new energy products have risen significantly, with industrial silicon up 3.1%, polysilicon up 6.4%, and lithium carbonate up 16.4% [2][36]. Group 3 - Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with only a few exceptions like Tangshan's blast furnaces showing stability [3][17]. - The average listing price of second-hand homes has dropped significantly, with first-tier cities down 0.6% and a cumulative decline of 6.2% for the year [3][38]. - The construction sector shows signs of weakness, with asphalt operating rates declining to an average of 27.8% from 34.4% earlier [9][17]. Group 4 - The port container throughput has increased year-on-year by 10.6%, although it has decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous week [2][20]. - The export container throughput from Chinese ports has shown a recovery, with a year-on-year increase in the number of outbound vessels [20][21]. - The overall import situation in the U.S. has rebounded, but imports from China remain weak, with a year-on-year decrease of -27.6% [22][23]. Group 5 - The current stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference stands at 2.65, indicating a favorable allocation value for stocks compared to bonds [11]. - The interest rates for various financial instruments have shown slight fluctuations, with DR001 at 1.2706% and DR007 at 1.4413% as of December 19 [48][49]. - The government is expected to maintain necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while enhancing the precision and effectiveness of fiscal policies [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the steel industry, with a weekly increase of 1.9% in the CITIC Steel Industry Index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by the same margin [2][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is showing signs of stability at the bottom of its fundamentals, with an average profit margin of -21.9 yuan per ton of steel produced, and a profitability rate of 35.9% for steel companies [2][11]. - The hot-rolled coil prices have shown mixed trends, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3350 yuan per ton, up by 14 yuan from the previous week, while the 4.75mm hot-rolled coil averaged 3296 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan [12]. - The iron ore price at Qingdao Port for 61.5% Fe powder averaged 795 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - The CITIC Steel Industry Index increased by 1.9%, indicating a stable bottom in the steel industry's fundamentals [2][11]. 2. Sub-industry Fundamentals Overview - The hot-rolled coil market is experiencing weak downstream demand, with inventory trends varying across regions, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [12]. - The coking coal market remains stable, with the main coking coal price at 1393 yuan per ton, and a cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors [13]. - The iron ore market is seeing high shipping volumes, with a total of 35.92 million tons shipped globally, marking a significant year-on-year increase [14]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - Steel prices are fluctuating, with specific increases noted in hot-rolled and cold-rolled products [34]. - Coking coal and iron ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with ongoing market observations [13][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Steel production is showing a decline in iron water output, with a decrease of 2.65 million tons to 226.55 million tons [13][14]. - Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports have increased, with a total of 162 million tons currently held [14].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent Central Economic Work Conference in guiding capital market reforms and highlights investment opportunities in the sector [4][10] - The coal industry shows a mixed performance with a month-on-month increase in coal prices, but overall supply and demand dynamics indicate a need for cautious optimism [9][11] Market Trends - Major indices displayed varied performance during the period from December 8 to December 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index decreasing by 0.34% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.74% [10] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 1.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a 15.14% increase compared to the previous period [10] Industry Commentary - In November, coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with cumulative production reaching 4.402 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [11] - Demand for coal remains weak, with fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector, which saw a significant drop of 15.9% [12] - Coal prices in November experienced an unexpected increase, with various types of coal showing different degrees of price rise compared to previous months [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that may benefit from a recovery in profitability, particularly in the coal sector, as winter demand is expected to support prices [12] - Specific companies to watch include Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal Industry, and Huayang Co., among others, for potential investment opportunities [12]

国信期货研究所 供需平稳成本支撑不足 螺纹震荡运行 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2025年12月14日 国信期货研究所 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 P a 一部 r 分 t1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 目 录 CONTENTS 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。从分类指数看， 在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数位于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员 指数均低于临界点。生产指数为50.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业生产总体稳定。新订单指数为49.2%，比上月 上升0.4个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平有所改善。原材料库存指数为47.3%，与上月持平，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材 料库存量继续减少。 ...

国信期货研究所 主力移仓远月 盘面低位震荡 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年12月7日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 后市展望 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a r 分 t1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。从分类指数看， 在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数位于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员 指数均低于临界点。生产指数为50.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业生产总体稳定。新订单指数为49.2%，比上月 上升0.4个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平有所改善。原材料库存指数为47.3%，与上月持平，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材 料库存量继续减少。从业人员指 ...