Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the coal sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [5]. Core Insights - Domestic and Australian thermal coal prices have increased month-on-month, while South African and European thermal coal offshore prices have decreased. As of August 8, the price of Shanxi premium mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 678.00 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton, a rise of 9.71% [1][18]. - The monthly production of key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed a decline in Shaanxi both year-on-year and month-on-month, while Shanxi and Inner Mongolia saw year-on-year declines but month-on-month increases [2][22]. - Coal inventories at the three major ports have significantly decreased month-on-month, while the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has increased [2][35]. - Domestic and international shipping costs have risen month-on-month, with domestic shipping from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai at 30.10 CNY/ton, reflecting a 9.06% increase [3][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal 1.1 Price - The price of thermal coal has increased month-on-month, with Shanxi premium mixed thermal coal at 678.00 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton, a rise of 9.71% as of August 8 [9][12]. - Prices in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi have also risen, with Inner Mongolia's Q5500 coal at 550.00 CNY/ton, up 74 CNY/ton (15.5%) and Shanxi's Q5500 coal at 598.00 CNY/ton, up 83 CNY/ton (16.12%) [9][18]. 1.2 Production - The monthly production of raw coal in June was 42,107.40 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1,569.20 million tons (3.87%) [19]. - In June, the production from key state-owned coal mines showed a decline in Shaanxi, while Shanxi and Inner Mongolia experienced increases month-on-month [22]. 1.3 Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in July reached 35.6093 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5693 million tons (7.78%), but a year-on-year decrease of 10.6007 million tons (22.94%) [24]. 1.4 Inventory - As of August 8, coal inventories at the three major ports totaled 11.959 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.186 million tons (9.02%) [28][30]. - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups decreased to 14.70 days, down 1.10 days (6.96%) month-on-month [34]. 1.5 Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups increased to 934,500 tons, a month-on-month rise of 32,900 tons (3.65%) [35][39]. - National electricity generation in June increased by 3.61% year-on-year to 796.29 billion kWh, with thermal power generation rising by 1.42% [35][44]. 1.6 Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have risen, with the Qinhuangdao to Shanghai route at 30.10 CNY/ton, a 9.06% increase month-on-month [3][46]. - International shipping costs also increased, with the Newcastle to China coal shipping rate at 15.80 USD/ton, up 2.30 USD/ton (17.04%) [3][46].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased, while offshore prices for thermal coal from Australia and Europe have increased. As of June 13, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 610 RMB/ton, down 2.71% month-on-month. In contrast, the offshore price of Newcastle thermal coal from Australia was 102.2 USD/ton, up 4.29% month-on-month [1][3][14] - The monthly production of coal from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the import volume of coal and lignite in May also saw a month-on-month decline [1][3][22] - The total coal inventory at the three major ports has decreased month-on-month, and the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has also declined [2][3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal continues to decline month-on-month. As of June 13, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal was 610.00 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.71% [10][11] - The price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has also decreased month-on-month [10][14] 2. Production - The monthly production of coal from key state-owned mines in April showed a decline. In April, the production figures were: Shaanxi 22.097 million tons (down 2.38%), Inner Mongolia 13.671 million tons (down 31.47%), and Shanxi 46.613 million tons (down 2.02%) [20][22] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in May reached 36.0401 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.73% [22][24] 4. Inventory - The total coal inventory at the three major ports decreased to 13.288 million tons as of June 13, down 17.05% month-on-month [2][28] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 745,100 tons, a decrease of 0.19% month-on-month [39][40] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic freight rates showed mixed trends month-on-month. For example, the freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was 26.10 RMB/ton, up 15.49%, while the rate to Ningbo was 39.80 RMB/ton, down 1.24% [46][49]