Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro factors are causing increased market volatility, with external market sentiment significantly affecting the domestic market. It is expected that the high level of hot metal production will be difficult to sustain. The main contract of coke is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Macro**: From July 14 - 15, the Central Urban Work Conference emphasized the transition of urban development to the "stock quality - improvement and efficiency - enhancement stage". The China National Coal Association called for industry self - discipline. In 2025, Jiangsu plans to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking, and coal consumption is expected to decline by about 5% compared to 2020. Overseas, Trump announced a tariff agreement with Indonesia, and the US PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw material prices are rising, and hot metal production remains at a high level. Coal mines have strong price - holding intentions. Currently, hot metal production has increased. Nationwide, 30 independent coking plants have an average loss of 43 yuan per ton of coke. The market is mainly dominated by the weak reality in the off - season [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [8]. - **Strategy**: Due to enhanced macro - level disturbances and obvious spill - over effects of market sentiment, it is advisable to treat the main coke contract as moving in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 18, the contract position decreased by 912 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke inter - month spread increased by 16.50 points. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 670 lots, and the futures rebar - coke ratio increased by 0.01 [12][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 17, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan per ton. As of July 18, the coke basis decreased by 22.00 yuan/ton [25]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 43 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 72.90% (up 0.18%), and the daily coke output is 51.41 tons (up 0.12 tons) [31][33]. - **Downstream**: The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons from last week. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 15.08 tons [37]. - **Inventory Structure**: Port inventories decreased, while steel mill inventories increased. The inventory of 16 ports for imported coking coal decreased by 0.29 tons, and the inventory of 18 ports for coke decreased by 2.97 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.19 tons [41]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's coke exports decreased by 41.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to June decreased by 27.9%. Steel exports in June were 967.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%, and the cumulative exports from January to June increased by 9.2% year - on - year [45]. - **Housing Market Data**: In June, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 35.98% month - on - month [48].