Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: There are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, leading to a decline in ore prices [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: They are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations are slightly rising, and bullish sentiment is high [2]. - Silicomanganese: Affected by energy information, it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: A round of price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Coking coal: It will have wide - range fluctuations [2][16]. - Steam coal: Sentiment has weakened, and there is short - term callback pressure [2][19]. - Logs: The near - term prices are stronger than the long - term, and the positive spread is widening [2][21]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 813.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.12%); the position was 371,421 hands, a decrease of 15,823 hands. The prices of various iron ore grades showed different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Previous structural contradictions drove iron ore prices up. Recently, there are expectations of a缓和 in negotiations, and the driving force is expected to weaken. The 2026 government work report aims to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%. The 247 steel enterprises' daily hot metal output increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.58%); the trading volume was 616,755 hands, and the position was 976,441 hands, a decrease of 99,718 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.33%); the trading volume was 283,214 hands, and the position was 846,816 hands, a decrease of 72,722 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed small increases [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China's steel exports increased in volume and price, while imports decreased. Steel production and inventory data showed different trends in March. Diplomatic efforts were made to promote peace talks. Steel production and inventory data of key enterprises in March showed various changes. Real estate investment decreased, while industrial added value and fixed - asset investment increased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: For ferrosilicon 2605, the closing price was 6066 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2607, it was 6190 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese 2605, the closing price was 6588 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; for silicomanganese 2607, it was 6632 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Manganese ore inventory in ports changed. Some silicon - iron plants had equipment maintenance and复产. The output and capacity utilization of silicon - iron enterprises in different regions changed. A mining company raised its offer price. Some steel mills had procurement plans [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: For JM2605, the closing price was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.4%); for J2605, it was 1753.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan (0.1%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had little change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices remained stable. The coking coal online auction had a 7% failure rate, and prices mostly declined due to the cost pressure on coke enterprises [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports showed different changes, and the overseas prices also had fluctuations. The long - term agreement prices in March increased slightly [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 30, the port market sentiment weakened, with upstream quotes slightly decreasing and downstream demand weak. In January - February 2026, the national raw coal output decreased slightly [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [20]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had changes, and the spreads between contracts and between spot and futures changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The 2026 government work report aimed to stabilize expectations, with GDP growth adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0% [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the content. The report mainly provides daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on March 31, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026. The basis values were -50.4, -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4 respectively, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 during this period [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 24 to March 30, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 30 was 540.36, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1641 [8]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 30 was -190 [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was -800 [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 30 was 3360 [11]. III. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on March 30 was 111.0 [20][21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was -44.0 [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the rebar to iron ore ratio on March 30 was 3.85 [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on March 30 was -380 [30]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (82.55) [33]. V. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans on March 30 was 6 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was -54 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios and spreads of various agricultural products from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the ratio of soybeans to corn on March 30 was 1.94 [40]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 30 was 77.95 [51]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was -19.8 [51].

Group 1: Market Views 1. Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.16% (+0.57%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 78.6 tons (-1.21). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 34.78% (+1.77%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.89 tons (+1.58). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high, and the overall supply increased [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons (+2.94), and the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (+1.25%). The available days of coking coal for 247 steel mills were 12.44 days (+0.14), and those for 230 independent coking plants were 12.95 days (+0.4). The procurement sentiment of downstream coking and steel plants improved [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 222.83 tons (-31.26), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1047.54 tons (+42.51), the steel mill inventory was 782.41 tons (+8.48), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 349.18 tons (+16.67), and the inventory at major ports was 269.44 tons (+4.49). The inventory structure was being transferred to the middle and downstream [3]. - Summary: Last week, the coking coal market supply remained high. Demand from downstream coking and steel plants increased. The inventory structure improved. In the short term, it will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation [3]. 2. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 21 yuan/ton (-17). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 74.86% (+0.55%), and the daily average output was 64.76 tons (+0.52). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons (-0.03). The overall supply was relatively stable [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons (+2.94), and the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (+1.25). The available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 12.75 days (+0.01). The rigid demand support was strong [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 90.05 tons (-4.18), the inventory at major ports was 216.11 tons (+16.98), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 691.67 tons (+3.49). The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [4]. - Summary: The supply and demand of coke both increased, and the market sentiment was positive. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate slightly stronger [4]. Group 2: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI [6][10][14][18] Group 3: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - It includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal contracts, the daily average output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of molten iron and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills, the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicles of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [21][26][33][38][40][42][45][48][54][57] Group 4: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - It includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule of coke, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis of coke contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke at ports, and the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills [61][63][65][69][76][79][82][87][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to decline due to the easing expectation of negotiations [2][4]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][8]. - The silicon ferroalloy spot performance is dull due to sector sentiment disturbances, while the manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment due to energy information disturbances [2][12]. - The first - round price increase of coke this week is expected to be implemented, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - The log market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, with the positive spread widening [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 812.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.61%. The open interest decreased by 20,782 to 387,244 hands [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore and most domestic ore prices declined, with some domestic ore prices remaining stable [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: Most basis and spreads decreased [4]. - **News**: Previous structural contradictions drove the iron ore price up, but recent negotiation easing expectations led to a weakening of the upward momentum [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased, with open interest also decreasing [8]. - **Spot Price**: Some spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, while some remained stable. The billet price remained unchanged [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of rebar increased, and that of hot - rolled coil also increased. Some spreads changed [8]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the week of March 26. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased in early March, and production data showed a decline [9][10] Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon - **Futures Data**: The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon futures contracts changed, with trading volume and open interest varying [12]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of silicon ferroalloy decreased, and the price of manganese ore decreased. The price of silicon manganese increased [12]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon changed [12]. - **News**: There were price quotes, inventory updates, and production and procurement news in the ferroalloy market [12][14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 decreased, with changes in trading volume and open interest [16]. - **Spot Price**: Some coking coal and coke prices remained stable, while some decreased [16]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke changed [16]. - **News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal auction showed certain characteristics [16] Log - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed, with different trends for different contracts [20]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of most log and wood square products remained stable, with only slight changes in a few prices [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of log futures changed [20]. - **News**: The government work report aimed at stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms, with GDP growth target adjustment and an increase in policy - based financial tools [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market in 2026 will present a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Overseas disturbances are frequent, but the weak terminal demand fundamentally restricts the profit repair space of the black industry chain, making it difficult to launch a trend - rising market [2][47] - In the second quarter, it is less likely for China to implement administrative control measures such as restricting coal mine开工 and production. Domestic coking coal production will remain at a high level. The import of coking coal will show structural differentiation, with the total import volume remaining stable [2][47] - In the short term, coke production will increase slightly due to the improvement of chemical product profits. In the long run, the overall profit of the black industry chain is still shrinking. The coking industry will face double squeeze from upstream coal mines and downstream steel mills, and the production may decline from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter [2][47] - The profit repair of the coking industry faces dual constraints. The slowdown of steel exports and the weak domestic demand in traditional fields such as real estate and infrastructure put pressure on terminal demand [2][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in the First Quarter of 2026 - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The core drivers were "frequent overseas - driven rallies" and "continuous pressure from domestic supply - demand relaxation", with frequent rhythm switches [3] - The domestic supply - demand structure was loose. The supply of coking coal did not contract unexpectedly, and the demand was weak. The profit of downstream steel mills was under pressure, and the resumption of blast furnace production was slow [6] - The upward drive mainly came from overseas. External factors such as Indonesia's reduction of thermal coal production quotas and international oil price increases triggered several obvious rebound market trends [9] 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Coking Coal Production - In 2025, there was a round of strict policy - based production restrictions in domestic coking coal production areas. The policy rhythm was "first control and then supply guarantee", and the annual coal production increased slightly [12] - Coal production is greatly affected by policies. Administrative means such as environmental protection, safety supervision, and over - production verification are important policy tools to regulate coal supply and prices [18] - In the second quarter of 2026, it is less likely to implement administrative control measures. The weekly average production of coking coal is expected to remain at about 10.3 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 2.8% [21] 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import - Since 2023, China has imported more than 100 million tons of coking coal annually, accounting for about 20% of the total supply. Import has become an important external variable for stabilizing domestic supply and demand [20] - In the second quarter of 2026, the import of coking coal will show structural growth. Mongolian coal imports are expected to continue to increase. Australian coal, although with a limited proportion, still has a significant influence as the pricing benchmark for seaborne coal. The import window for US coking coal is expected to remain closed, and the shortfall may be replaced by Canadian coal. Russian coking coal exports to China are expected to increase [36] 3.2.3 Coke Supply - In recent years, the profitability of the coking industry has declined, and the contradiction of over - capacity has intensified. The average coking profit per ton of coking enterprises decreased from about 195.29 yuan in 2021 to 8.11 yuan in 2024, and the capacity utilization rate also declined [37] - The capacity utilization rate of steel - coking integrated coking enterprises is significantly higher than that of independent coking enterprises, and the proportion of steel mill coking capacity is increasing year by year [39] - In the short term, the coking profit has been repaired, and the coke production is expected to increase slightly. In the long term, the coking industry will face double squeeze, and the production may decline from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter [41] 3.2.4 Coke Demand - China's steel exports are a "quantity - for - price" strategy under the background of weak domestic demand, which squeezes the overall profit of the black industry chain. The coking industry is in a difficult situation due to weak terminal demand and over - capacity [43] - In 2026, the profit repair of the coking industry faces dual constraints. The slowdown of steel exports and the weak domestic demand in traditional fields make the terminal demand of coking coal face great pressure [45] 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In the second quarter, domestic coking coal production will remain high, and the import will show structural differentiation. Coke production will increase slightly in the short term and may decline in the long term. The coal - coke market presents a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", and it is difficult to have a trend - rising market [47] - The shock range of the coking coal main contract is (900, 1500), and that of the coke main contract is (1350, 2000) [3][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 30, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][6][23][29][40][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from March 23 to March 27, 2026. The basis values are - 58.4, - 50.4, - 45.4, - 41.4, and - 40.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - From March 23 to March 27, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is 339.44, 345.10, 259.80, 50.55, and 105.35 respectively; the basis of fuel oil is 374.15, 208.78, 103.65, 222.50, and 151.50 respectively; the crude oil / asphalt ratio is 0.1762, 0.1686, 0.1668, 0.1624, and 0.1641 respectively [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads: For rubber, 5 - 1 is - 820, 9 - 1 is - 765, 9 - 5 is 55; for methanol, 5 - 1 is 369, 9 - 1 is 107, 9 - 5 is - 262; etc. - Inter - variety spreads: For example, on March 27, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 3187, LLDPE - PP is - 428, etc. - Basis: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided [11][12] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads: For example, for rebar, 5 - 1 is - 51.0, 9(10) - 1 is - 24.0, 9(10) - 5 is 27.0; for iron ore, 5 - 1 is 45.5, 9(10) - 1 is 19.5, 9(10) - 5 is - 26.0 - Inter - variety spreads: On March 27, 2026, the rebar / iron ore ratio is 3.84, the rebar / coke ratio is 1.7834, etc. - Basis: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided [22][23] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are presented, such as - 380 for copper on March 27, 2026 [32] 3.4.2 London Market - On March 27, 2026, the LME spreads of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided, along with the Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are given, such as 27 for soybeans on March 27, 2026 - Inter - period spreads: For example, for soybeans, 5 - 1 is - 50, 9 - 1 is - 6, 9 - 5 is 44 - Inter - variety spreads: On March 27, 2026, the soybean / corn ratio is 1.93, the soybean oil / soybean meal ratio is 2.95, etc. [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 23 to March 27, 2026 are provided, such as 75.17 for CSI 300 on March 27, 2026 - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread is - 19.0, the next - quarter - current - quarter spread is - 81.8; for SSE 50, the next - month - current - month spread is - 4.2, the next - quarter - current - quarter spread is - 40.4; etc. [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The main producing area mines maintain normal production, with sufficient supply. Driven by coke price increases and market demand, the coking coal market is improving, downstream procurement demand is rising, and coal mine inventories are rapidly decreasing. The short - term market will continue to be strong. With downstream复产 and improved terminal product sales, coking coal prices are expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **For Coke**: Downstream demand provides good support, and coke enterprises' inventories are mostly low. Due to rising coking coal prices, coke enterprises are near the break - even point, and some are holding back supply waiting for price increases. After the first round of coke price increases was accepted by some steel mills, coke prices are expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price** - **Imported Coking Coal**: On March 27, 2026 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are provided. For example, the price of Russian K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1400 [8]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On March 27, 2026 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke of different grades and from different origins are provided. For example, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Lianyungang is 1500 [9]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons from last week [28]. **Factors Affecting Prices** - **Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On March 27, 2026, A-share major indices opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.63% to 3913.72, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.13% to 13760.37, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71% to 3295.88. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1864 billion yuan, a decrease of 93.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Product Categories Stock Index Futures - On March 27, the A-share market had a good performance, with major indices rising. The trading volume continued to shrink [1]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures - On March 27, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1274.6 yuan, a decrease of 19.7 yuan. The coke weighted index adjusted and closed at 1785.8, a decrease of 17.2 [2][3]. - Factors affecting prices include steel exports, coking plant profit, inventory changes, policies, and geopolitical situations [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - On March 27, US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. Affected by rising crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2609 contract rose during the night session. Speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 90,286 lots to 126,149 lots as of March 24 [4]. Rubber Futures - On March 27 night session, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 137,630 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory decreased by 2923 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4436 tons [4][5]. Palm Oil Futures - On the night of March 27, the Dalian Commodity Exchange palm oil futures opened higher but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. Logistics and insurance cost increases due to tensions may affect Indonesia's palm oil exports [5]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on March 27, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1159.5 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.98%. Brazil's high - yield situation suppresses prices. Domestically, on March 27, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.51%. With the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, supply is expected to be loose [5]. Live Pig Futures - On March 27, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9965 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.32%. The supply is currently loose, while the demand is insufficient to support prices effectively [5]. Shanghai Copper Futures - On March 27, the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated slightly and closed higher. The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show a tight balance between supply and demand [5]. Cotton Futures - On March 27 night session, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15435 yuan per ton. Cotton inventory decreased, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed [7]. Iron Ore Futures - On March 27, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down, a decrease of 0.49%. Shipments and arrivals increased, and the price was in a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Asphalt Futures - On March 27, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and rose, an increase of 1.05%. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may follow the oil price in the short term [7]. Log Futures - On March 27, the log 2605 main contract opened at 817.5, with the lowest at 811, the highest at 819.5, and closed at 817.5, with a reduction of 384 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [7][8]. Steel Futures - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased steel production costs, but the cost increase has not been effectively transmitted to the finished product end. The steel market is in a game of weak reality, strong cost, and inventory reduction [8]. Alumina Futures - The raw material cost of alumina is supported, the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable and may increase. The market is in a game between short - term demand - positive sentiment and long - term supply - loose reality [8]. Shanghai Aluminum Futures - Some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East has been affected. The supply is expected to increase slightly, the demand is expected to pick up, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].