东北负电价破局之路（下篇） —— 火电技术改造的转型逻辑 国家能源集团江西公司 付宇芊 2026年春节期间，东北电力市场经历了一次前所未有的价格信号冲击。2月14日至23日，辽宁实时市场 共有9个交易日全天加权均价为负，其中8天达到下限价-100元/兆瓦时，负价时段占比高达96.98%，蒙 东地区负价时段占比88.13%，黑龙江零价时段占比97.71%。上篇已分析出，核心成因在于北方冬季供 暖遵循"以热定电"原则，热电联产机组为保障供热需维持基础出力，叠加新能源大发，电力供应远超需 求，价格信号只能下探至负值。这便是当前煤电企业面临的两难困境：开机意味着亏损，停机则失去市 场、面临巨额重启成本。那么，煤电企业究竟该如何破局？ 一、中欧负电价现象的比较与启示 反观我国东北区域，黑龙江新能源发电量占比为31.9%，辽宁为24.09%，蒙东为36.83%。更低的可再生 能源占比，却出现更长时间的负电价。这一反差说明，东北的负电价并非"绿电太多"所致，根源在于火 电灵活性不足，尤其是热电联产机组的刚性约束。因此，破解东北负电价困局的关键，在于打破热电耦 合的刚性约束，让煤电从"主力电源"转向"调节电源"。欧洲的实践经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Southern Power Grid Guangxi Electric Power Company has successfully transformed coal power from being the main source of electricity to a key player in flexible regulation, achieving a significant reduction in coal power utilization hours and enhancing the capacity for clean energy consumption [1][2] Group 1: Coal Power Flexibility and Utilization - 84% of coal power units in the region have met national flexibility adjustment capability requirements, with peak regulation depth reduced to 36% [1] - The coal power utilization hours in the region are only 1,836 hours, the lowest among the five southern provinces, allowing for the release of 28.8 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy consumption space [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing coal storage, transportation, maintenance plans, and operational methods to alleviate the conflict between output variation and heating stability [1] Group 2: Industrial Heating and Support - Coal power units in Guangxi are crucial for both grid regulation and providing stable steam heat sources for industrial parks, highlighting the importance of resolving the conflict between output changes and heating stability [1] - The Guoneng Yongfu Power Plant has become a leader in coal power upgrades, achieving a deep peak regulation capability of 35% while reducing the minimum guaranteed heating load from 282,000 kilowatts to 110,000 kilowatts [1] Group 3: Technological Upgrades - The Southern Power Grid Guangxi Electric Power Company has implemented a "three modifications" strategy focusing on heating transformation, flexibility transformation, and coal-saving modifications, resulting in a reduction of the output lower limit by 1.2 million kilowatts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities of "molten salt energy storage" in the context of its integration with coal power plants, highlighting the need for policy guidance, technological innovation, and industry collaboration to overcome existing barriers [1][3][8]. Group 1: Project Overview - The largest domestic molten salt energy storage project combined with coal power, a 350 MW demonstration project at Anhui Guoneng Suzhou Power Plant, has been launched, showcasing significant market potential [3][5]. - The project utilizes two large molten salt tanks, one for high-temperature and one for low-temperature storage, with a total heat storage capacity of 1000 MWh [5][6]. - The project allows for a reduction in minimum technical output from 50% to 30% and increases maximum load from 80% to 100%, demonstrating enhanced flexibility in power generation [5][7]. Group 2: Market Potential - The combination of "molten salt energy storage + coal power" is expected to activate a market potential worth billions, with further applications in high-heat industries like steel and chemicals potentially expanding the market to hundreds of billions [3][5][7]. - If 30% of the existing coal power capacity of approximately 1.1 billion kW were to adopt molten salt energy storage systems, it could lead to significant market investments [7]. Group 3: Challenges in Scaling - High customization requirements for different coal power plants pose a significant challenge, necessitating tailored designs for each system [9][10]. - The initial investment for molten salt energy storage projects is high, with the Suzhou project costing around 340 million yuan, which may deter some power plants from investing [9][10]. - The lack of national standards for molten salt tank design and safety regulations creates additional risks and uncertainties for the industry [9][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Development - Industry experts suggest that policy support is crucial, including integrating molten salt energy storage into new power system planning and establishing clear compensation mechanisms for peak shaving [11][12]. - Technological innovations aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency are essential for the widespread adoption of molten salt energy storage [11][12]. - Establishing national standards for design, construction, and acceptance of molten salt storage tanks is necessary to ensure safety and efficiency [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify an explicit investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in total operating revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.13%, and net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 267.14% [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, having signed a major contract for a power plant project in Vietnam worth approximately 181 million yuan [2] - The flexibility transformation of coal-fired power plants is expected to accelerate, which may benefit the company as it develops intelligent solutions for energy management and equipment operation [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.73 billion yuan, 2.17 billion yuan, and 2.61 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 31.7%, 25.3%, and 20.2% [2] Financial Summary - Total operating revenue is projected to grow from 1.03 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.61 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 87 million yuan in 2023 to 293 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 33% over the forecast period [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 9.9% in 2023 to 32.8% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively adapting to the evolving energy landscape in China, focusing on flexibility and low-carbon transformation of coal power plants, while also expanding its energy-saving and new energy technologies to drive future growth [4][6][7][8]. Company Overview - The company has maintained its accounting firm as Zhongxinghua Accounting Firm (Special General Partnership) for the reporting period, receiving a standard unqualified audit opinion [2]. - The company has proposed a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, with no stock dividends [3]. Industry Context - As of the end of 2024, China's total installed power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.35 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy surpassing coal power for the first time [4]. - By the end of 2025, coal power's share of total installed capacity is expected to drop to one-third, while solar and wind power will exceed coal capacity [4]. Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.06%, while total profit decreased by 31.33% to 79.77 million yuan [8]. - The energy-saving segment saw a revenue increase of 65.18%, driven by the company's focus on coal power flexibility and new energy storage technologies [8]. - The environmental protection segment's revenue decreased by 57.02%, attributed to fewer upgrade projects as most coal power plants completed their ultra-low emission modifications [9]. - The new energy segment's revenue decreased by 45.84%, with biomass coupling technology still in the early demonstration phase [10]. Technological Advancements - The company is promoting deep flexibility transformation technologies for coal power plants, including plasma ignition and digital boiler technologies, to enhance efficiency and adaptability [6]. - The company has made significant progress in low-carbon transformation technologies, achieving stable operation of ammonia co-firing in coal-fired boilers, recognized as a top innovation in the energy sector [7].