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燃油车退场论
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燃油车销量回暖,专家称“退场论”为时尚早
第一财经· 2025-10-29 02:54
Core Viewpoint - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a recovery despite the rising prominence of the electric vehicle market, with significant growth in sales figures reported for September 2025 [3][6]. Group 1: Sales Data - In September 2025, domestic sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.299 million units, marking a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [3]. - Traditional fuel vehicle sales in September 2025 amounted to 1 million units, an increase of 60,000 units year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10.9% and a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales totaled 17.044 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, while traditional fuel vehicle sales reached 8.141 million units, up 136,000 units year-on-year, representing a growth of 1.7% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, with the 2025 vehicle replacement policy expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrappage subsidies [7]. - Promotional efforts for fuel vehicles have been more aggressive than for electric vehicles, with promotional intensity for fuel vehicles at 23.9% in September 2025, compared to 10.2% for electric vehicles [7]. - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles are seeing particularly high promotional efforts, with luxury vehicle promotions reaching 27.7% and joint venture fuel vehicles at 23.3% in September 2025 [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Fuel vehicles are increasingly adopting smart technologies to counter the perception of being less intelligent compared to electric vehicles, with significant improvements in features such as intelligent driving and connectivity [7]. - Many automakers are continuing to develop both electric and fuel vehicles, with a notable proportion of new models being fuel vehicles, indicating a balanced approach in product offerings [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the growth in electric vehicle sales, which reached a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5% and a retail penetration rate of 57.8% in September 2025, the demand for fuel vehicles remains strong due to concerns over electric vehicle safety and the gradual reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles starting next year [9].