汽车以旧换新消费洞察 白皮书 | 汽车以旧换新政策特点 …………………………………………………… | 03 | | --- | --- | | 1.1 汽车以旧换新政策重要历程 ……………………………………………………… | 04 | | 1.2 2026年汽车以旧换新政策变化特点 …………………………………………… | 06 | | 1.3 地方政府在汽车以旧换新实施中发挥协同促进作用 ………………………… | 09 | | 典型区域内汽车以旧换新市场特点 …………………………… | 11 | | --- | --- | | 2.1 品牌结构呈现区域特点，用户置换更新首选中国品牌 ……………………… | 12 | | 2.2 有效带动15万以下增量市场，尤其是新能源汽车 …………………………… | 12 | | 2.3 燃油车倾向长期持有，新能源用户换车周期更短 ……………………………… | 14 | | 汽车以旧换新用户需求洞察 ………………………………………… | 15 | | --- | --- | | 3.1 调研背景与调研样本 ……………………………………………………………… | 16 | | 3 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Fuyao Glass experienced a counter-trend increase on February 23, 2026, with A-shares slightly down by 0.07% while Hong Kong shares rose by 3.18% [1] - As of February 23, Fuyao Glass A-shares had a cumulative decline of 2.01% over the past five days, approaching the lower Bollinger Band (59.13 yuan), indicating a potential for a rebound [1] - Over the last five days, there was a net inflow of 115 million yuan in main funds, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect continued to increase positions, suggesting some investors are buying on dips [1] Group 2: Project Development - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, with projects in Fuqing Yangxia and Hefei, each expected to complete 3 million sets of capacity by the end of 2025, now entering the ramp-up production phase [2] - In January 2026, the company announced an investment of 5.75 billion yuan in a new automotive glass project in Hefei, alongside the launch of a Chongqing aluminum trim project, further enhancing long-term growth expectations [2] - In terms of overseas operations, the capacity utilization rate of the second phase of the U.S. factory increased from 30% in Q3 to a target of 40%-50% in Q4, with revenue growth in the European market exceeding expectations, optimizing global layout [2] Group 3: Industry Policy Environment - The automotive trade-in policy was launched ahead of schedule in 2026, with over 20 provinces introducing subsidy measures (up to 20,000 yuan), which is expected to boost automotive consumption demand [3] - The company's aluminum trim business is projected to generate revenue of 2.3-2.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a target of 5.5-6 billion yuan by 2028, diversifying its strategy to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single business [3] Group 4: Product Development Progress - The company recently announced an international patent for "electric heated glass and vehicles" (PCT/CN2025/114898), with a total of 12 new international patent applications in 2026, representing a 50% year-on-year increase [4] - Research and development investment continues to grow, with 883 million yuan spent in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.59%, strengthening the company's technological barriers [4]

Core Viewpoint - Dongyun Co., Ltd. (002715) has announced a projected net loss of 13 million to 18 million yuan for 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - In the past 7 trading days, Dongyun's stock price has declined from 17.61 yuan to 16.99 yuan, resulting in a cumulative drop of approximately 3.5%, with a trading range fluctuation of 14.36% [2] - On February 13, the main capital outflow was 2.2165 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow, indicating a turnover rate of 1.68%, putting short-term pressure on the stock price [2] Group 2: Financial Report Analysis - The anticipated loss for 2025 is primarily attributed to the underperformance of the gold mining business, which is being gradually divested to focus on the core automotive parts sector [3] - The latest financial report indicates a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6.2376 million yuan for Q3, reflecting a deterioration in profitability [3] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Market attention towards Dongyun is generally moderate, with neutral sentiment and a low proportion of fund holdings, and no new research reports covering the company [4] - Industry reports suggest that the 2026 automotive trade-in policy may boost sector demand; however, Dongyun's weak fundamentals indicate a lack of short-term catalysts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of the 2026 vehicle trade-in policy, which has driven new car sales to 53.77 billion yuan as of February 5, significantly promoting the development of the automotive market and resource recycling [1] - The high-end pure electric vehicle market shows substantial growth potential, with consumer awareness of "pure electric" steadily increasing since 2025, leading to a rapid rise in pure electric penetration rates [1] - New technologies, such as sodium-ion batteries, are accelerating in implementation, with Changan Automobile and CATL planning to launch multiple sodium battery models in 2026, featuring pure electric models with a range exceeding 400 kilometers [1] Group 2 - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976), which focuses on the entire supply chain of the new energy vehicle industry, including upstream materials, midstream components, and downstream complete vehicles and related services [1] - The index selects representative listed company securities as constituent stocks, emphasizing the manufacturing and technology service sectors related to new energy vehicles to reflect the overall performance and development trends of related listed companies [1]

Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle replacement policy is a significant boost for the automotive market, promoting high-end development and enhancing fiscal efficiency through a shift from fixed subsidies to tiered subsidies based on vehicle value [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The new policy aims to stabilize large-scale consumption and release replacement potential, contributing to steady growth while promoting green and low-carbon initiatives [1][2]. - The average subsidy for passenger vehicle replacements is expected to decrease by approximately 30%, while the average subsidy for scrapping is projected to decline by about 20% [2][3]. - The transition to a tiered subsidy system is designed to improve fiscal efficiency, ensuring better allocation of funds and reducing waste from low-priced vehicles benefiting from subsidies [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - In 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles benefited from the replacement subsidy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, indicating a strong market shift towards electrification [3]. - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to perform better in 2026 due to the continuity of favorable policies, while the passenger vehicle segment faces a decline in the number of new models [5][6]. - The number of new passenger vehicle models is decreasing from 92 in 2024 to 83 in 2026, reflecting a trend towards higher-end and larger vehicles [5][6]. Group 3: Product Development - New energy passenger vehicles are increasingly characterized by larger sizes and improved range, with a notable absence of small electric vehicles under 1090 kg in recent releases [8][10]. - The introduction of long-range electric vehicles, particularly those exceeding 700 km, is becoming more common, indicating a shift towards higher performance in the electric vehicle market [10][14]. - The energy density and efficiency of new energy vehicles are improving, with some models achieving a power consumption of around 10 kWh per 100 km [12][15]. Group 4: Tax and Subsidy Structure - The tax exemption directory for commercial vehicles shows growth in new models, particularly in trucks and buses, compared to the previous year [4][6]. - The structure of the subsidy system is evolving to favor higher-priced vehicles, ensuring that funds are allocated to more valuable replacements [3][4]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional fuel vehicles face increasing pressure from new energy vehicles, which are rapidly advancing in technology and market presence [1][3]. - The introduction of diverse new models in the narrow hybrid segment is establishing a solid foundation for future growth, with many new products featuring lower energy consumption [16].

此外，多部门协同与区域特色举措形成合力。节能与新能源汽车产业发展部际联席会议2026年度工作会 议提出，进一步扩大汽车消费，推进汽车以旧换新工作。1月召开的全国市场运行和消费促进工作会议 强调，提质增效实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车等大宗消费。区域层面，2026年，内蒙古推进"购在中 国"内蒙古站等系列促消费活动，聚焦汽车等重点领域配套开展促消费活动；南宁市西乡塘区聚焦汽车 等重点领域，线上线下同步推出"旧车置换优惠"等特色促销板块。 中国汽车流通协会副会长罗磊表示，展望2026年，随着汽车行业整治"内卷式"竞争成效逐步显现，叠加 以旧换新政策深入推进，新车市场价格有望保持稳定运行，这也将为二手车市场营造更为有利的发展环 境，预计全年交易规模将继续稳步扩大。 补贴标准优化成为最大亮点。2026年，汽车以旧换新补贴方式从定额补贴调整为按照新车售价比例给予 补贴，报废更新最高补2万元，置换更新最高补1.5万元。"这意味着购买价值更高、技术更先进的节能 环保新车的消费者，能够获得相对更高额度的补贴支持。"中国汽车流通协会副会长王都说，这将引导 汽车消费结构向绿色、低碳、智能化方向升级。此外，产业协同效应将进一步凸显， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the passenger vehicle sector, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies and a shift in consumer demand. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers that are less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Geely [25][26]. - In the heavy truck segment, the report anticipates a positive outlook for 2026, projecting domestic sales to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [30][28]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. - The motorcycle sector is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a significant focus on the large-displacement motorcycle market [26]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Short-term recovery is anticipated in the passenger vehicle sector due to established subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and companies less affected by policy changes [25][26]. - Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD, among others [25]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, a 26.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8% [30]. - The report recommends leading heavy truck manufacturers such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30][28]. Buses - The bus market saw a slight decline in 2025, with sales of 29,000 units, down 6% year-on-year. However, a rebound is expected in 2026, with a projected 40% increase in sales [30][29]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is forecasted to grow, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by large-displacement models [26]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [26].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand car market in China is experiencing significant growth, with transaction volumes reaching 20.1 million units in 2025, but profit margins are declining, leading to a challenging environment for dealers [3][12]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - In 2025, the second-hand car transaction volume reached 20.1 million units, marking a new peak, with used new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for over 1.6 million units, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [3][10]. - The average transaction price of second-hand cars decreased from 66,700 yuan in March 2025 to 61,600 yuan in September 2025, indicating a price drop in the market [3][7]. - The average profit margin in the second-hand car industry is approximately 4%, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous years [3][9]. Group 2: Profitability Challenges - The average profit margin for second-hand car dealers has decreased, with individual dealers like Wang Yang reporting a drop in profit from 15,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan for a 100,000 yuan vehicle over five years [7][9]. - Factors contributing to declining profits include increased competition, price transparency, and fluctuations in new car prices, which directly affect second-hand car pricing [7][9]. - Major dealer groups are also facing similar challenges, with companies like Yongda Automotive reporting a 60.2% decline in comprehensive profits from their second-hand car business [9][12]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles as a Growth Opportunity - The penetration rate of second-hand NEVs increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 12% by December 2025, indicating a growing market segment [10][11]. - The average three-year depreciation rate for NEVs is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with NEVs averaging a 43% retention rate compared to 62% for fuel vehicles [11][12]. - Despite the challenges, NEVs are seen as a new growth opportunity for second-hand car dealers, with companies like Yongda Automotive planning to accelerate their focus on this segment [11][12].

Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China is projected to reach a transaction volume of 20.1 million units by 2025, with used new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to exceed 1.6 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1] - The average growth rate of second-hand car sales has slowed down to 5.8% over the past five years, compared to an average of 10.3% in the previous decade, while the average profit margin in the industry has dropped to around 4% [1][3] - The average transaction price of second-hand cars has decreased from 66,700 yuan in March 2025 to 61,600 yuan in September 2025 [1] Market Trends - The proportion of registered second-hand car dealers increased to 73.2% in the first half of 2025, with 96 out of the top 100 companies being second-hand dealers [1] - The revenue from second-hand car sales for dealer groups has risen by 124% compared to 2024 [1] - The competition among second-hand car dealers is intensifying, with many individual operators exiting the market due to declining profits [2] Profitability Challenges - The average profit margin for second-hand cars is approximately 4%, with significant declines in profit per vehicle sold, from around 15,000 yuan five years ago to about 10,000 yuan currently [3] - Factors contributing to profit decline include price volatility of new cars, increased transparency in the market, and intensified competition [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand cars in 2025 is reported to be 64,100 yuan, a decrease of 140 yuan from 2024 [3] Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The penetration rate of second-hand NEVs has increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 12% by December 2025 [6] - The transaction price distribution for second-hand NEVs shows an increase in the share of vehicles priced between 30,000 to 80,000 yuan, while the share of vehicles priced below 30,000 yuan has decreased [6] - The average three-year depreciation rate for NEVs is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with NEVs averaging a 43% retention rate compared to 62% for fuel vehicles [7] Strategic Shifts - Companies are exploring new growth avenues such as NEVs and second-hand car exports to adapt to market changes [5] - The overall second-hand car market is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, while NEV transactions are projected to increase by approximately 50% year-on-year [7] - Major players like Yongda Automotive and Zhongsheng Automotive are shifting focus towards NEV channels and online sales models for second-hand vehicles [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, driven by subsidy policies. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile and Geely, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales reaching 799,000 units. The report forecasts 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected 40% increase in sales to 40,000 units, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].