Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry continues to experience significant growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with production and sales increasing by over 30% year-on-year from January to October 2023 [1][2] - In October, NEV sales surpassed 50% of total new car sales for the first time, indicating a strong market shift towards electric vehicles [1] - The total automotive production and sales in China reached 27.69 million units, with NEVs accounting for 1.30 million units produced and 1.29 million units sold, reflecting growth rates of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [1] Industry Developments - The Chinese government is set to adjust the NEV purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction starting January 1, 2026, with a maximum tax reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [2] - In response to this upcoming change, car manufacturers are launching tax incentive programs to ensure consumers purchasing vehicles before the end of November can still benefit from full tax exemptions [2] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly influenced consumer behavior, with 60% of consumers opting for NEVs when applying for trade-in subsidies, thereby facilitating a transition to greener vehicles [2] Market Impact - The trade-in policy is expected to result in over 12 million subsidy applications by the end of the year, potentially driving new car sales close to 1.7 trillion yuan [2]

Group 1: Policy Adjustments and Market Trends - Hubei Province announced adjustments to the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy policy, suspending the scrap update subsidy and optimizing the issuance of qualification vouchers to better meet consumer demand and promote healthy development of the automotive market [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that from January to October, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.69 million units, with a year-on-year growth of over 10%. Notably, in October, new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6% [1][2] - The implementation of the national trade-in policy has shown significant effects, with market order improving and price competition becoming more rational, as new car launches are breaking previous price limits rather than simply reducing prices [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - John Roth will take over as the new president of General Motors China starting December 1, succeeding Steve Hill, who will assume a new role as Senior Vice President of Global Export and Retail Innovation [5][6] - The leadership change at General Motors aims to support the ongoing recovery of the Chinese market and promote growth in global exports [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Black Sesame Intelligence announced that its flagship product, the Huashan A1000 chip, has been successfully integrated into Desay SV's new low-speed unmanned vehicle, enhancing the safety of logistics operations [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has shown significant growth in October, with production and sales reaching 3.359 million and 3.322 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and 8.8% [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) anticipates that total automotive production and sales will reach 34 million units for the year, setting a new historical record [1] - The growth in the automotive sector is attributed to the "two new" policies, which have positively impacted the market, alongside a steady pace of production and the launch of new models [1] Industry Performance - From January to October, the automotive production and sales totaled 27.692 million and 27.687 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2% and 12.4% [2] - The production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) during the same period reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units, with year-on-year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% [2] - NEVs accounted for 46.7% of total new vehicle sales, indicating a strong market presence [2] Future Outlook - Despite a noticeable contraction in local "two new" policies towards the end of the year, there are positive signals from the 20th National Congress and the Central Committee's recommendations for boosting consumption [2] - The automotive industry is advocating for the continuation and optimization of relevant policies to stabilize market expectations and support steady industry operations in the coming year [2]

Group 1 - Multiple automakers reported strong sales performance in October, driven by the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to exceed 16 million units in 2025, with the used car replacement policy significantly boosting the market [1][7] - New force brands like Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, and NIO achieved record monthly deliveries, with Leap Motor delivering 70,289 units, a year-on-year increase of over 84% [2] Group 2 - Xpeng Motors delivered 42,013 units in October, marking a 76% year-on-year increase and entering several international markets [2] - NIO's deliveries reached 40,397 units, a 92.6% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from its various brands [2] - Xiaomi Motors also surpassed 40,000 units in deliveries, while Li Auto's deliveries decreased slightly [3] Group 3 - Traditional automakers showed strong performance in the NEV sector, with BYD reporting 441,706 NEV sales in October, a 12% year-on-year decline [4] - SAIC Group's sales reached 453,978 units, with NEV sales growing by 31.6% year-on-year [4] - Chery Group's NEV sales exceeded 110,000 units for the first time, reflecting a 54.7% year-on-year increase [4] Group 4 - Industry experts noted that traditional automakers are leveraging their manufacturing scale and brand reputation to excel in the NEV market [5] - The market is expected to remain strong post the peak season, with various automakers launching new promotional activities [6] - The automotive market is anticipated to exceed initial production and sales forecasts, with a projected total of 32.9 million vehicles for the year [7]

Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing strong sales performance in October, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, with several companies reporting significant delivery numbers for new energy vehicles [1][2][3] Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record monthly delivery of 70,289 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of over 84% [1] - XPeng Motors delivered 42,013 vehicles in October, a 76% year-on-year increase, and is expanding into international markets [2] - NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, a 92.6% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from its various brands [2] - Xiaomi Motors also surpassed 40,000 deliveries in October, while Li Auto's deliveries decreased [2] Group 2: Traditional Automakers' Performance - BYD reported 441,706 new energy vehicle sales in October, a 12% year-on-year decline, but with a month-on-month increase [3] - SAIC Group's total vehicle sales reached 453,978 units in October, a 12.96% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales up 31.6% [3] - Chery Group's October sales reached 281,161 units, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 54.7% [3] - BAIC New Energy sold 30,542 units in October, a 112% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - Experts predict that the automotive market's overall performance will exceed expectations, with new energy vehicle sales expected to surpass 16 million units [4] - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy is expected to significantly boost market demand [4] - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards new energy vehicles, with projections indicating that they will become the mainstream product in the market within the next 5-15 years [4]

Core Insights - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a recovery despite the rising prominence of the electric vehicle market [2][4] - In September, domestic sales of passenger cars reached 2.299 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles accounting for 1 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [2] - The sales growth of traditional fuel vehicles has turned positive for the year, with a total of 8.141 million units sold from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [2] Group 1: Sales Data - In September, traditional fuel vehicle sales increased by 10.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of year-on-year growth [2] - For the first nine months of the year, the total domestic sales of passenger cars reached 17.044 million units, with traditional fuel vehicles showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6 thousand units [2] - Retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 4% in September, but a month-on-month increase of 5%, indicating a notable recovery compared to a 14% decline in 2024 [4] Group 2: Policy and Promotions - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, including expanded support for scrapping older vehicles [5] - The promotion intensity for traditional fuel vehicles is significantly higher than that for electric vehicles, with promotional efforts for fuel vehicles remaining stable at around 23.9% [5] - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles are seeing particularly high promotional efforts, with luxury vehicle promotions reaching 27.7% in September [5] Group 3: Market Trends - Many automakers are maintaining a dual strategy of promoting both electric and fuel vehicles, with a significant number of new models being fuel vehicles [6] - The penetration rate of electric vehicles reached a historical high of 53.5% in wholesale and 57.8% in retail in September [7] - Despite the growth of electric vehicles, there remains a persistent consumer demand for fuel vehicles, and the notion of a complete phase-out of fuel vehicles is premature [7]

Core Viewpoint - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles are experiencing a recovery despite the rising prominence of the electric vehicle market, with significant growth in sales figures reported for September 2025 [3][6]. Group 1: Sales Data - In September 2025, domestic sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.299 million units, marking a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [3]. - Traditional fuel vehicle sales in September 2025 amounted to 1 million units, an increase of 60,000 units year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 10.9% and a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [3]. - For the first nine months of 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales totaled 17.044 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.3%, while traditional fuel vehicle sales reached 8.141 million units, up 136,000 units year-on-year, representing a growth of 1.7% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery of fuel vehicle sales is closely linked to subsidy policies, with the 2025 vehicle replacement policy expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrappage subsidies [7]. - Promotional efforts for fuel vehicles have been more aggressive than for electric vehicles, with promotional intensity for fuel vehicles at 23.9% in September 2025, compared to 10.2% for electric vehicles [7]. - Luxury and joint venture fuel vehicles are seeing particularly high promotional efforts, with luxury vehicle promotions reaching 27.7% and joint venture fuel vehicles at 23.3% in September 2025 [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Fuel vehicles are increasingly adopting smart technologies to counter the perception of being less intelligent compared to electric vehicles, with significant improvements in features such as intelligent driving and connectivity [7]. - Many automakers are continuing to develop both electric and fuel vehicles, with a notable proportion of new models being fuel vehicles, indicating a balanced approach in product offerings [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the growth in electric vehicle sales, which reached a wholesale penetration rate of 53.5% and a retail penetration rate of 57.8% in September 2025, the demand for fuel vehicles remains strong due to concerns over electric vehicle safety and the gradual reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles starting next year [9].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce announced that the automobile replacement subsidy policy will cease after the qualification issuance is completed on October 28, 2025 [1][5] - The total subsidy fund is capped, and the policy operates on a first-come, first-served basis until the budget is exhausted [5] - As of October 22, 2025, over 10 million applications for the automobile replacement subsidy have been submitted, with more than 3.4 million for scrapping and over 6.6 million for replacements [5] Group 2 - The proportion of new energy vehicles in the automobile replacement policy reached 57.2%, contributing to a 24.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to September 2025, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% [5] - A new policy regarding the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be implemented starting January 2026, changing from full exemption to a 5% tax rate, with a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [6] - Only new energy vehicle models listed in the tax exemption directory and meeting new technical requirements will qualify for the tax benefits starting in 2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in September showed strong performance driven by the traditional sales peak and the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in both overall and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2][4]. Group 1: September Market Review - In September, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.244 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles totaled 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7% and a month-on-month growth of 16.5%, achieving a penetration rate of 57.8% [2]. Group 2: October Market Outlook - October is expected to enter the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, with the National Day holiday's customer gathering effect and year-end policy adjustment expectations driving initial consumer demand [3]. - However, the impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to weaken, leading to potential pressure on market growth in the latter half of the month [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers are optimistic about October sales, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are stable month-on-month. The narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail market is expected to reach around 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [4]. - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate potentially reaching 60%, which would be a historical high [4][8]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail sales of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [5]. - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail sales to 87,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [5]. - The third week saw a decline in daily retail sales to 61,300 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.5% [5]. - The fourth week is expected to stabilize with daily retail sales of 68,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.4% [5]. - The fifth week is projected to see an increase in daily retail sales to 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5]. Group 5: Market Structure Differentiation - After the National Day holiday, terminal discounts have shown a seasonal slight recovery, with the overall automotive market operating smoothly [7]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly impacted the market, with over 10 million applications for subsidies by October 22, 2025 [7]. - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming end-of-year tax subsidy adjustments for new energy vehicles, which may drive pre-purchase demand [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan - Author Affiliation: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and tend to rise in the long - term. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities at low prices. The cost side provides strong support due to the cancellation of tax - refund policies and tight scrap aluminum supply. With the end - of - year car sales push, the fourth - quarter seasonal performance may be stronger [6]. - As of October 17, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.31 million tons to 13.41 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory pressure remains. In the second week of October, domestic car sales reached 686,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to boosting car consumption [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The current trading volume, position, and capital precipitation data are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2511 - AD2512 contract pair on October 17, 2025, the fixed cost is 11.54 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 66.17 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 78 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton. Considering storage fees, capital costs, and other factors, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.35% [16][19]. - The short - term refined - scrap price difference is rising [24]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The Baotai ADC12 price remains flat, and the recycled - primary price difference fluctuates. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [31][36]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output share are also presented. For example, Guangdong accounts for 19.65% of the output [41][46]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost is estimated to be above the break - even line [47]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [52][56]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production volume, regional production share, factory inventory, and regional inventory share are provided [59][60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the end - of - year sales push stage, which will drive die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the car inventory warning index and the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts manufacturing [65][66].