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牛市小平台应对策略
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策略专题:牛市若出现小平台,如何应对?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-22 09:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During a bull market, market corrections are often completed in a short period. For small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks, it may be a good buying opportunity. Chasing the previous strong sectors during this period has a high probability of success, and even chasing at the market peak can often yield positive returns [1][4]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends [1][5]. - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related [1][6]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Respond When a Small Platform Appears in a Bull Market 1.1 Chasing the Previous Strong Sectors During a Small - Scale Bull - Market Correction Has the Highest Probability of Success - During a bull market, small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks may be a good buying opportunity. When considering whether to chase the previous high - performing sectors or switch to low - lying sectors for catch - up, historical data shows that in the "first wave of rise - platform pullback - second wave of rise" scenarios, the top 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise are likely to have the largest pullbacks during the adjustment but also tend to have higher increases in the second wave of rise. The bottom 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise usually do not end up at the bottom in the second wave of rise [10]. - When buying at the market's highest point before adjustment (fully "chasing up"), the TOP20% group and the DOWN20% group have similar returns, but the TOP20% group has a higher probability of success and always maintains positive returns. When buying at the lowest point of the market adjustment, the TOP20% group is likely to have better returns [4][13]. 1.2 When Not to Chase Up - The statement that "chasing the previous strong sectors during a small - scale bull - market correction has the highest probability of success" is the result of strong sectors with excess returns continuing to lead the rise and sectors with weakening marginal excess returns rising in line with the market. Excluding sectors with weakening marginal excess returns may be a good choice when a "small - scale bull - market correction" occurs [16]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends, possibly because the sector has completed the pricing of its own logic and there is no incremental logic to change this situation. Conversely, if a sector can maintain strong excess returns during a correction, it is likely to continue to do so in the future [5][19]. 1.3 Which Industries Currently Have Weakening Marginal Excess Returns - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening marginal excess returns. Sectors such as the consumer electronics sector have had continuous excess returns relative to the broader market for 10 weeks. As of August 20, 2025, sectors with continuous excess returns of five weeks or more include general equipment, special equipment, electronic chemicals, rubber, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment [20]. - Sectors that have shown weakening marginal excess returns include the gaming sector in AI applications, the aviation equipment sector in the military industry, and the wind power and glass - fiber sectors in the "anti - involution" category [20]. 1.4 How to Find Sectors That May Earn Odds When Excess Returns Weaken - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. Examples include special steel from March to July 2009, rail transit equipment from February to April 2015, rural commercial banks from December 2016 to April 2017, energy metals, small metals, general steel, and coal mining from May to September 2017, and chemical fibers and agricultural product processing from November 2020 to January 2021 [23]. - These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related. Before the correction, the rise is due to market beta and the difference between weak reality and strong expectations. During the correction, the negative excess return is due to the friction when moving from long - term speculation to the reality - realization stage. After the correction, the excess return comes from the reality catching up with the strong expectations. Resource sectors price their own logic more "slowly" than growth sectors. When the marginal excess returns of growth stocks weaken, it is difficult for them to restart without new incremental logic. However, for resource sectors, the realization of logic (i.e., the realization of supply - demand structure expectations) is still an incremental logic [6][23].