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牛市能拉动消费吗?(国金宏观孙永乐)
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-09-19 00:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of stock market performance on household consumption, highlighting the disparity in benefits between high-net-worth individuals and lower-net-worth investors during a bull market [4][9][19]. Group 1: Stock Market and Household Assets - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen over 25% since April, while consumer growth has declined from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, indicating a divergence between the stock market and consumer fundamentals [4]. - As of Q2 2025, non-financial and housing assets account for 49% and 45.4% of total household assets, respectively, while financial assets make up 51%, with deposits, stocks, and mutual funds comprising 33.4%, 5.4%, and 5.2% [5]. - Household stock assets grew by 21% year-on-year in Q2 2025, contributing 1 percentage point to overall asset growth [6]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Market Impact - Stock market wealth is concentrated among high-net-worth individuals, with only 0.7% of individual investors holding over 10 million yuan, yet they account for 49% of total market value [9][10]. - High-net-worth clients have a higher risk tolerance and better access to information, allowing them to achieve excess returns during bull markets [10][11]. Group 3: Consumption Behavior and Wealth Effect - The bull market can enhance household consumption by increasing overall wealth, improving credit access, and reducing precautionary savings [13]. - Research indicates that a 10% increase in stock prices can lead to a 1.05% increase in urban household consumption, with the effect being asymmetric [15]. - Low-income households show a more pronounced increase in consumption willingness during stock market upswings, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume [16]. Group 4: Consumption Categories Affected by Stock Market - Financial asset appreciation positively influences various consumption categories, particularly discretionary spending, with a 1% increase in stock value leading to nearly double the impact on discretionary consumption compared to essential consumption [17]. - The stock market has a significant wealth effect on automobile consumption, with a 1% increase in market capitalization correlating to a 0.16% increase in passenger car sales [18]. - Overall, while stock value increases can stimulate discretionary and service consumption, the lower consumption propensity of high-net-worth investors limits the overall impact on consumer spending [19].