编导：徐中哲 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 新华社音视频部制作 记者：谢希瑶 ...

而面对居民消费需求的持续低迷，有不少专家提出建议："应把银行存款的利率降为零，这样就可以迫使老百姓把钱拿出来用于投资和消费。"但事实上，即 使把银行存款利率降到零，居民还是会把钱存起来不敢消费。 近些年，国内经济总体呈现"稳中有升"的趋势。数据显示：2025年上半年GDP同比增长5.3%。但令人感到奇怪的是，居民消费需求却持续低迷，像汽车、小 家电、房子等商品价格都处于下降的通道之中。同时，居民存款总额却在持续上升。2025年上半年，中国居民银行存款暴增10.77万亿元，创下历史性新 高！ 这主要是因为，居民存钱的目的就是为了应对失业、疾病等不时之需，以及应对将来养老、子女教育、买房首付等消费支出。所以，不管银行怎么降息，多 数居民存款意愿不会改变。实际上，现在影响居民消费的原因主要有三个： 第二，房价削弱了国民消费能力 ①社会贫富差距过大；②房价削弱了国民消费能力；③电商的过度发展。而这三大"毒瘤"导致了老百姓的钱都被吸走了，居民没钱消费、不敢消费。如果这 三大"毒瘤"不除，国内经济要想靠居民消费来拉动经济增长是非常困难的。 第一，社会贫富差距过大 虽然，我国GDP蛋糕越来越大，但主要还是被政府、企业给拿走 ...

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025) has shown strong resilience in China's macroeconomic performance despite facing complex internal and external challenges, with nominal GDP expected to exceed 140 trillion yuan by the end of this period, an increase of over 35 trillion yuan compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][5] - During the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP experienced an average annual real growth rate of 5.5% and a nominal growth rate of 6.9%, with the nominal GDP growth rate projected to be around 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [3][5][6] - The economic growth achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" have laid a solid material foundation for modernizing the economy and have provided strong support for stabilizing employment and improving people's livelihoods [4][5] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for achieving the strategic vision of reaching a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, with a minimum nominal GDP average growth rate requirement of 5% [9][10][14] - The core guiding principle for economic growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve a per capita GDP of 27,000 USD by 2035, reflecting a shift from focusing on total GDP growth to per capita income improvement [10][12][14] - To meet the 2035 target, the nominal GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" should ideally be around 6%, with a minimum requirement of 5%, depending on factors such as actual GDP growth, price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations [14][16][18] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should consider setting clear economic growth targets to address demand insufficiency and promote supply-demand balance, which is essential for achieving full employment and improving living standards [19][20] - A comprehensive target system around nominal GDP growth should be established, including a core target of 5% nominal GDP growth and 4.8% real GDP growth, alongside specific goals for consumption and investment growth [21][22][23] - Policies should focus on expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment, to ensure necessary growth rates are met [23][25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of stock market performance on household consumption, highlighting the disparity in benefits between high-net-worth individuals and lower-net-worth investors during a bull market [4][9][19]. Group 1: Stock Market and Household Assets - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen over 25% since April, while consumer growth has declined from 6.4% in May to 3.4% in August, indicating a divergence between the stock market and consumer fundamentals [4]. - As of Q2 2025, non-financial and housing assets account for 49% and 45.4% of total household assets, respectively, while financial assets make up 51%, with deposits, stocks, and mutual funds comprising 33.4%, 5.4%, and 5.2% [5]. - Household stock assets grew by 21% year-on-year in Q2 2025, contributing 1 percentage point to overall asset growth [6]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Market Impact - Stock market wealth is concentrated among high-net-worth individuals, with only 0.7% of individual investors holding over 10 million yuan, yet they account for 49% of total market value [9][10]. - High-net-worth clients have a higher risk tolerance and better access to information, allowing them to achieve excess returns during bull markets [10][11]. Group 3: Consumption Behavior and Wealth Effect - The bull market can enhance household consumption by increasing overall wealth, improving credit access, and reducing precautionary savings [13]. - Research indicates that a 10% increase in stock prices can lead to a 1.05% increase in urban household consumption, with the effect being asymmetric [15]. - Low-income households show a more pronounced increase in consumption willingness during stock market upswings, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume [16]. Group 4: Consumption Categories Affected by Stock Market - Financial asset appreciation positively influences various consumption categories, particularly discretionary spending, with a 1% increase in stock value leading to nearly double the impact on discretionary consumption compared to essential consumption [17]. - The stock market has a significant wealth effect on automobile consumption, with a 1% increase in market capitalization correlating to a 0.16% increase in passenger car sales [18]. - Overall, while stock value increases can stimulate discretionary and service consumption, the lower consumption propensity of high-net-worth investors limits the overall impact on consumer spending [19].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 4.64%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to July 2025, with the restaurant sector showing a growth rate of 3.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [1][2][18] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in August 2025 was 6.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from July, with traditional industries related to real estate, such as glass, cement, and crude steel, experiencing accelerated contraction [2][3][6] - Fixed asset investment in August 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from July, with real estate investment down 12.9% year-on-year [2][6][12] Group 2 - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4 percentage points to -0.4%, primarily due to the drag from food prices, while core CPI increased to 0.9% [2][3][31] - The report highlights that the bond market is under pressure, with the current environment suggesting a phase of risk acceleration, and that the market may not have a favorable opportunity for long positions at this time [2][14][27] - The report notes that the real estate sector requires incremental policy support to stabilize, as recent trends show a downward adjustment in housing prices in first-tier cities [2][6][12]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with predictions for price stabilization in major cities being pushed back, indicating a prolonged period of low market activity [1] Group 1: Local Finance - The land finance model, which has supported local finances for over two decades, is now in jeopardy, with land transfer revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3] - The difficulties faced by real estate companies have led to a lack of interest in the land market, exacerbating the financial strain on local governments [3] - This creates a vicious cycle where tight local finances hinder large-scale construction, leading to fewer projects and reduced tax revenue [3] Group 2: Secondary Housing Market - In Shanghai, over 40,000 newly restricted homes are set to be released in 2026, posing a risk of market collapse as prices for previously high-demand properties have plummeted [6] - The number of second-hand homes listed in Beijing and Shanghai has exceeded 160,000, with even a 20% price reduction failing to attract buyers [6] - A potential panic selling scenario could lead to a complete breakdown of the pricing system in the secondary housing market [6] Group 3: Real Estate Company Debt - By 2025, real estate companies will face nearly 3 trillion yuan in maturing debt, forcing developers to resort to drastic price cuts to sell properties [7] - The cycle of price reduction, mortgage defaults, and subsequent forced sales creates a downward spiral that is difficult to reverse [7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - With real estate accounting for nearly 70% of household assets in China, the ongoing decline in property prices has severely impacted consumer wealth and spending intentions [8] - The perception of wealth has diminished, leading to a significant drop in consumer confidence and spending, as evidenced by reduced budgets for purchases like cars [8] Group 5: Market Confidence - The real estate market is trapped in a cycle of declining confidence, with new home prices falling for 39 consecutive months and second-hand home prices for 41 months [8] - The average sales cycle for homes in major cities has extended to 20 months, reflecting a lack of buyer interest [8] - The fundamental logic of the housing market has shifted, with an oversupply of housing and insufficient actual demand, indicating a return to the primary function of housing as a living space rather than a wealth symbol [8]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, domestic residents made 3.285 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1] - Urban residents accounted for 2.452 billion trips, growing by 17.5%, while rural residents made 833 million trips, increasing by 30.6% [1] - Total spending on travel reached 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year, with urban spending at 2.60 trillion yuan (12.5% increase) and rural spending at 550 billion yuan (30.1% increase) [1] Group 2 - The rapid increase in rural residents' travel is attributed to rising incomes and improved infrastructure, including more tourist attractions [2] - The per capita disposable income for rural residents was 11,936 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.9% and a real growth of 6.2%, outpacing urban residents [2] - The county-level market's share of total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38.9%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous year [2] Group 3 - In 2024, at least 17 counties had urban residents with per capita consumption exceeding 50,000 yuan, with some counties surpassing 55,000 yuan [3] - The tourism market in lower-tier cities and counties is emerging as a new growth point, with county tourism experiencing explosive growth since 2024 [3] - The average number of tourists in county tourism reached 5.8079 million, with a year-on-year increase of 14.26%, and total tourism revenue grew by 9.96% [3]

Core Insights - The majority of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][4] Group 1: Economic Sentiment - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 is 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers considering the economy normal and 35.8% viewing it as "cold" [3][4] - The entrepreneur macroeconomic heat index stands at 26%, with 50.8% of entrepreneurs believing the economy is "normal" and 48.6% considering it "cold" [3][4] - The operating prosperity index and profit index for entrepreneurs have increased to 49.3% and 53.2%, respectively, with 32.5% of entrepreneurs reporting increased profits or reduced losses, up from 26% in the previous quarter [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Perception - The banker monetary policy perception index is at 74.6%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 50% of bankers viewing the policy as "loose" [4] - The expected monetary policy perception index for the next quarter is 75.9%, indicating a positive outlook [4] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The resident income perception index for Q2 is 45%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [5] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, down 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% of residents believing the job market is favorable [5] - In terms of spending intentions for the next three months, tourism has surpassed education as the top choice at 32.1%, followed by education at 31.9% and healthcare at 29.3% [7] Group 4: Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," while 63.8% prefer "more savings," indicating a shift in consumer sentiment [6] - The top five investment preferences among residents are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [6]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Consumption - The study examines the impact of fiscal policy on household consumption under debt financing, comparing scenarios with and without capital[1] - In the absence of capital, fiscal shocks lead to output increases, while technological shocks improve various economic indicators[1] - In capital scenarios, the C-D production function shows less impact from crowding out effects and debt accumulation compared to the endogenous growth model, but the latter has faster output growth[1] Group 2: Fiscal Reaction Coefficient - The calculated fiscal reaction coefficient for China is -0.12, indicating insufficient government response to debt changes, affecting fiscal sustainability[1] - The negative coefficient suggests that China's fiscal surplus policies do not adequately address government debt, leading to instability in the DSGE model[1] - Reform is necessary to improve these economic parameters and enhance government debt conditions[1] Group 3: Labor Supply Elasticity and Fiscal Efficiency - Changes in labor supply elasticity have minimal impact on household consumption, contrasting with fiscal balance rules[1] - A higher fiscal reaction coefficient correlates with greater fiscal efficiency and reduced debt pressure[1] - The study highlights that fiscal policy remains a primary tool for macroeconomic regulation, despite the slower nature of technological growth[1]

Economic Stimulus Recommendations - Experts suggest the government should implement additional economic stimulus measures of 1 to 15 trillion RMB (approximately $137 billion to $206 billion USD based on current exchange rates) within 12 months [1] - The stimulus aims to boost resident consumption and mitigate the economic damage caused by US tariffs [1] - The report emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies to maintain stable growth [1] Structural Reform Proposals - The report suggests expanding the individual income tax base and simplifying the value-added tax (VAT) structure in the long term [1] - The report highlights the importance of managing risks associated with SME lending to enable banks to lend to more productive sectors [1]