Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in demand, particularly in consumer spending, which has been significantly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies for trade-ins [2][3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for January to November 2025 is reported at 4.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with automobile sales showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.0% [3][22] - Industrial value-added growth for November 2025 is at 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating a divergence between traditional industries related to real estate and high-tech sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes a rebound in inflation, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point rise [3][5] - Fixed asset investment shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% for November, with real estate investment down 15.9% and infrastructure investment at 0.13% [3][7] - The report indicates that the overall economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3][23]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in consumer demand, particularly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies, indicating that sustained policy support is necessary to boost consumer spending [3] - Industrial value-added growth remains resilient at 6.0% year-on-year, although there is a clear divide between traditional industries, such as real estate, which are contracting, and high-tech industries that are supporting growth [3][4] - Inflation is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive change in food prices this year [3][5] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a further decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, driven by downturns in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [3][7] - The report notes that the economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending both declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with cumulative sales area down 11.1% year-on-year, indicating a persistent contraction since the second quarter of this year [3][10]

国家统计局12月10日发布数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分 点，为2024年3月份以来最高。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 新华社发 朱慧卿 作 新华社图表，北京，2025年12月10日 000 000 0 0 000 > IIII 000 1111 l = = D = D D ロ !... ... .... ... 110 = n ///// 000 ...

来源：华创证券研究 7.出口价格增速转正，推动PPI超预期复苏 8.租金加速下降二手房下行预期或带来新一轮地产政策 2026年宏观脑洞开在哪儿 2018年以来，我们已经连续多次发布年度宏观脑洞报告，目的是在市场一致预期之外，提供更多发散的可能。一致性预期往往已映射到资产价格中，而对 一致性预期的偏离才是市场波动和博弈的空间所在。对于投资而言，应对的重要性远大于精准的预测。因此我们还是希望给出一些在一致性预期之外概率 较高的情景，主要内容如下： 1.美国通胀压力超预期, 美联储重启加息 2.欧元区债务风险放大 欧洲央行重新扩表 3.黄金价格转入持续调整 4.美国原油产量触顶回落，油金比触底回升 5.居民消费可能超预期 6.出口继续超预期 风险提示：地缘政治冲击；政策超预期变动。 ...

Core Insights - The core argument is that in China's new development stage, the main constraint on economic growth has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, with resident consumption becoming the decisive driving force for growth [1][2]. Demand-Side Constraints - Demand-side constraints, particularly in resident consumption, have become the primary limitation on China's economic growth, influenced by factors such as declining manufacturing advantages, the transition to high-quality development, and demographic changes like population decline and aging [2][3]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth is essential as China faces challenges from a decreasing population and slower income growth, which significantly suppresses resident consumption [2][5]. Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between resident consumption rates and economic growth is critical; higher consumption rates correlate with lower probabilities of significant economic slowdown, highlighting the importance of maintaining consumption at levels consistent with development stages to avoid the middle-income trap [3][4]. Barriers to Consumption Growth - Several barriers must be overcome to enhance resident consumption, including the long-term trend of slowing GDP and disposable income growth, which is exacerbated by demographic shifts and the transition to a higher economic development stage [5][6]. - The existing income distribution gap, characterized by a high Gini coefficient, limits overall consumption demand as lower-income households tend to have a higher marginal propensity to consume [6][7]. - Rapid aging and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" further complicate consumption dynamics, as older populations typically have lower consumption rates and face multiple financial burdens [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - To foster necessary changes in consumption dynamics, a shift in mindset and policy is required, focusing on long-term human capital development and job creation to support household income and consumption [8][9]. - Improving income distribution through effective tax and transfer systems is crucial, as current redistributive measures in China are significantly lower than those in many OECD countries, indicating substantial potential for improvement [9][10]. - Expanding the provision of public goods and services is essential, as increased government spending on social services can enhance overall living standards and indirectly support consumption growth [10][11].

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the imbalance in income distribution, where the share of residents in the initial income distribution is only 60.6%, significantly lower than the global average, while the corporate sector takes a larger share [4][6] - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.2%, but the retail sales of consumer goods are only expected to increase by 4.5%, indicating a lack of genuine consumption recovery [3][4] - The total household deposits in 2024 surged by 14.26 trillion yuan, surpassing 203 trillion yuan, while the broad money supply (M2) reached 313.53 trillion yuan, suggesting that excess liquidity is not reaching consumers [3][4] Group 2 - The state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have assets totaling 400 trillion yuan, yet a significant portion of their profits is reinvested rather than distributed to employees or society [6][7] - The shift towards high-tech and new energy sectors is acknowledged, but these industries have high barriers to entry and do not create enough jobs to absorb the displaced workforce from traditional manufacturing [7][9] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for reforms in income distribution, social security improvements, and affordable housing to enhance consumer spending and address the root causes of low consumption [7][9]

Economic Overview - The Russian economy showed a complex but overall balanced development in Q3, with GDP growth slowing down but domestic consumption remaining stable. September's GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year, surpassing August's 0.4%, while overall Q3 growth was only 0.6% [1][3] Consumer Spending and Income - Retail, catering, and paid services sectors saw a revenue increase of 2.5% year-on-year in September, slightly down from 3% in August. Food consumption declined, but service and non-food goods consumption continued to grow. Analysts believe that rising household income is the main driver of economic vitality [3][4] - Real disposable income for residents grew by 8.5% in Q3 and 9.2% from January to September, significantly exceeding the annual forecast of 3.8%. This increase in income creates favorable conditions for active consumption [3][4] Income Structure and Inflation - The structure of income has changed, with wage income now accounting for 40.9% of total household income, a 2% increase over the past year. This indicates a stable core income source for residents, supporting consumption even as wage growth slows [3][4] - The annualized inflation rate at the end of Q3 was approximately 4.9%, lower than expected, which helped maintain real income growth above predicted levels and increased residents' confidence in financial stability [3][4] Delayed Demand and Consumer Sentiment - Accumulated delayed demand is significant, as residents have been saving for large purchases like cars and appliances. The implementation of vehicle scrappage tax policies has further incentivized vehicle purchases, positively impacting consumer spending [4] - The consumer sentiment index shows an increase in the proportion of respondents willing to spend idle funds on high-value items, rising by 2.1 percentage points to 26.6% [4] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate in September was 2.2%, slightly up from 2.1% in August, indicating a cooling labor market. However, high consumer activity and disposable income growth are stabilizing consumption [5][6] - The labor market has shown signs of stabilization, with the number of job vacancies per job seeker decreasing from 5 to 2.3 over the past year, reflecting a natural adjustment after rapid expansion earlier in the year [6]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October shows a decline in both supply and demand sides, indicating a challenging economic environment [1] Demand Side Summary - Investment growth continues to decline rapidly, with new policy financial tools yet to show significant effects [1] - Despite a slight drop in retail sales growth in October, it still exceeded market expectations, aided by a recovery in dining consumption due to holiday effects [1] Supply Side Summary - Industrial production performance is hindered by declining demand and holiday effects, while the service production index has also decreased due to high base effects [1] Future Outlook - The basic fundamentals of foreign trade exports are expected to remain supported through the end of the year [1] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to improve moderately with the implementation of new policy financial tools [1] - There is a possibility of continued low levels of consumer spending [1] - Recent government initiatives to promote private investment and develop relevant scenarios are expected to positively impact investment and consumption once implemented [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October indicates a decline in both supply and demand sides, with investment growth continuing to decrease rapidly, while consumer spending shows slight improvement due to holiday effects, but overall retail sales growth has slightly declined yet remains above market expectations [1] Demand Side Summary - Investment growth in October continues its rapid downward trend, with the effectiveness of new policy financial tools still pending [1] - Retail sales growth in October has slightly declined but remains above market expectations, attributed to a rebound in dining consumption due to holiday effects [1] Supply Side Summary - Industrial production performance is affected by the decline in demand and holiday effects, leading to a decrease in the service sector production index due to high base effects [1] Future Outlook - The basic fundamentals of foreign trade exports are expected to remain supported for the remainder of the year [1] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to improve moderately with the implementation of new policy financial tools [1] - There is a possibility that consumer spending may continue to remain subdued [1] - Recent government initiatives to promote private investment and develop relevant scenarios are expected to positively impact investment and consumption once implemented [1]

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]