Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with predictions for price stabilization in major cities being pushed back, indicating a prolonged period of low market activity [1] Group 1: Local Finance - The land finance model, which has supported local finances for over two decades, is now in jeopardy, with land transfer revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3] - The difficulties faced by real estate companies have led to a lack of interest in the land market, exacerbating the financial strain on local governments [3] - This creates a vicious cycle where tight local finances hinder large-scale construction, leading to fewer projects and reduced tax revenue [3] Group 2: Secondary Housing Market - In Shanghai, over 40,000 newly restricted homes are set to be released in 2026, posing a risk of market collapse as prices for previously high-demand properties have plummeted [6] - The number of second-hand homes listed in Beijing and Shanghai has exceeded 160,000, with even a 20% price reduction failing to attract buyers [6] - A potential panic selling scenario could lead to a complete breakdown of the pricing system in the secondary housing market [6] Group 3: Real Estate Company Debt - By 2025, real estate companies will face nearly 3 trillion yuan in maturing debt, forcing developers to resort to drastic price cuts to sell properties [7] - The cycle of price reduction, mortgage defaults, and subsequent forced sales creates a downward spiral that is difficult to reverse [7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - With real estate accounting for nearly 70% of household assets in China, the ongoing decline in property prices has severely impacted consumer wealth and spending intentions [8] - The perception of wealth has diminished, leading to a significant drop in consumer confidence and spending, as evidenced by reduced budgets for purchases like cars [8] Group 5: Market Confidence - The real estate market is trapped in a cycle of declining confidence, with new home prices falling for 39 consecutive months and second-hand home prices for 41 months [8] - The average sales cycle for homes in major cities has extended to 20 months, reflecting a lack of buyer interest [8] - The fundamental logic of the housing market has shifted, with an oversupply of housing and insufficient actual demand, indicating a return to the primary function of housing as a living space rather than a wealth symbol [8]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Consumption - The study examines the impact of fiscal policy on household consumption under debt financing, comparing scenarios with and without capital[1] - In the absence of capital, fiscal shocks lead to output increases, while technological shocks improve various economic indicators[1] - In capital scenarios, the C-D production function shows less impact from crowding out effects and debt accumulation compared to the endogenous growth model, but the latter has faster output growth[1] Group 2: Fiscal Reaction Coefficient - The calculated fiscal reaction coefficient for China is -0.12, indicating insufficient government response to debt changes, affecting fiscal sustainability[1] - The negative coefficient suggests that China's fiscal surplus policies do not adequately address government debt, leading to instability in the DSGE model[1] - Reform is necessary to improve these economic parameters and enhance government debt conditions[1] Group 3: Labor Supply Elasticity and Fiscal Efficiency - Changes in labor supply elasticity have minimal impact on household consumption, contrasting with fiscal balance rules[1] - A higher fiscal reaction coefficient correlates with greater fiscal efficiency and reduced debt pressure[1] - The study highlights that fiscal policy remains a primary tool for macroeconomic regulation, despite the slower nature of technological growth[1]

Economic Stimulus Recommendations - Experts suggest the government should implement additional economic stimulus measures of 1 to 15 trillion RMB (approximately $137 billion to $206 billion USD based on current exchange rates) within 12 months [1] - The stimulus aims to boost resident consumption and mitigate the economic damage caused by US tariffs [1] - The report emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical policies to maintain stable growth [1] Structural Reform Proposals - The report suggests expanding the individual income tax base and simplifying the value-added tax (VAT) structure in the long term [1] - The report highlights the importance of managing risks associated with SME lending to enable banks to lend to more productive sectors [1]

Group 1 - Current consumption is the most important driver of economic growth in China, contributing over 50% to GDP growth in the past two years, surpassing the combined contributions of investment and exports [1] - The recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasizes enhancing financial services from both supply and demand sides to support consumption [2][3] - The focus is on increasing residents' property income to boost consumption capacity, as raising wage income faces significant challenges due to pressures on private enterprises [3] Group 2 - The capital market plays a crucial role in promoting consumption growth, acting as an accelerator and stabilizer by providing diverse investment channels for residents [3][4] - There has been a significant increase in household savings, with nearly 60 trillion yuan added in the past four years, indicating a need to attract these savings into the capital market [4] - The recent recovery in the capital market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 20% from last year's low, is seen as a key factor in enhancing market confidence and promoting consumption [4][5] Group 3 - The issuance of the recent opinion reflects the central government's determination to expand high-quality consumption growth, which is expected to release consumption potential and boost market sentiment [5] - The ongoing fourth technological revolution, particularly in artificial intelligence, is anticipated to attract investment and enhance market profitability, further stimulating consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts and their implications for market performance [1][3][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The key issue in the market is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, as the end of government leverage raises concerns about who will drive economic growth [3][6]. - The Trump administration's economic policies have shifted, ending government leverage and relying on private sector actions, which are sensitive to market interest rates [6][9]. - Current high mortgage rates are limiting consumer borrowing, making it difficult for households to increase leverage [7][10]. Group 2: Consumer Spending - Recent consumer spending data shows a significant decline, with a 0.28% decrease in May, marking the worst performance in over a year [10][11]. - The decline in durable goods consumption and a shift to negative growth in service consumption indicate a broader weakening in consumer spending [11][13]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices remains uncertain, with only limited effects observed in specific product categories [13][16]. Group 3: Tariff Negotiations - Upcoming tariff negotiations are critical, with deadlines approaching for agreements with multiple countries, including the U.S. and Europe, which could significantly impact market conditions [20][21]. - The market has already priced in expectations for a September interest rate cut, leaving little room for error as negotiations unfold [20][21]. Group 4: Portfolio Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio underperformed compared to major indices, primarily due to a pullback in gold positions and insufficient equity exposure [21][25]. - The portfolio has shown a total return of 91.1% since inception, significantly outperforming MSCI China [23][27]. Group 5: Stock Contributions - Notable stock performances included TSMC, which saw a 9.1% increase due to strong market position and revenue growth expectations [26]. - Conversely, companies like Costco and Guizhou Moutai faced challenges, with Costco's sales declining amid weak retail data [26].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 近期美国经济硬数据与软数据之间的分歧开始收敛，越来越多的硬数据开始指向经济下行。本文通过对美国就业、库存、投资、消费、金融条件五个维度的前瞻指 标拆分，总结了当前美国经济的现状与前景：经济呈下行趋势，但爆发风险的概率不大，结构来看：①就业市场呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温；②当前处于补 库存周期，未来大规模补库概率不大；③投资方面企业投资或继续下行，地产投资难有起色；④居民消费能力减弱，但爆发风险的概率小；⑤金融条件：处于宽松 状态。 报告摘要 1 、美国就业市场：呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温 就业市场现状：薪资偏强，但就业呈现结构性弱化。 根据亚特兰大联储对就业数据的拆分，将就业数据划分为 5 个维度。从目前的就业数据来看，尽管薪资增长 依然较快（衡量薪资的三个指标均处于过去 10 年 50%-75% 分位数水平），但就业市场的结构性数据提示就业市场已经在弱化，例如就业市场信心指标、雇主行 为指标等普遍弱于过去 10 年 50% 分位数。 从就业市场供需关系来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed performance of consumption, industrial production, and investment, indicating a potential lack of sustainability in the recent economic recovery [7]. Consumption - In May 2025, retail sales showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from April, driven by government subsidies and increased consumer travel [7][18]. - The demand for gold and jewelry has increased due to rising gold prices, but this consumption is not stable and may not be sustainable if income does not improve [7]. - The overall consumer sentiment is cautious, with a preference for using savings over loans for consumption, reflecting a weak growth in new short-term loans [7]. Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in May 2025 was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating a slowdown in industrial production [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained in negative territory at -0.1%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% in May 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from April, with real estate investment declining by 10.7% [7]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 10.42%, but this was also a decline of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a weakening trend across various sectors [7]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate sector requires additional policy support to stabilize [7]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable position due to a loose monetary policy and weak real financing, with a recommendation to maintain duration and wait for positive developments [7]. - The recent strong performance in credit bonds is attributed more to expectations rather than actual capital movement from deposits to non-banking sectors [7].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国经济的前瞻指标们 核心结论：近期美国经济硬数据与软数据之间的分歧开始收敛，越来越多的硬 数据开始指向经济下行。本文通过对美国就业、库存、投资、消费、金融条件 五个维度的前瞻指标拆分，总结了当前美国经济的现状与前景：经济呈下行趋 势，但爆发风险的概率不大，结构来看：①就业市场呈结构性弱化，供需关系 显著降温；②当前处于补库存周期，未来大规模补库概率不大；③投资方面企 业投资或继续下行，地产投资难有起色；④居民消费能力减弱，但爆发风险的 概率小；⑤金融条件：处于宽松状态。 1、美国就业市场：呈结构性弱化，供需关系显著降温 就业市场现状：薪资偏强，但就业呈现结构性弱化。根据亚特兰大联储对就业 数据的拆分，将就业数据划分为 5 个维度。从目前的就业数据来看，尽管薪资 增长依然较快（衡量薪资的三个指标均处于过去 10 年 50%-75%分位数水平）， 但就业市场的结构性数据提示就业市场已经在弱化，例如就业市场信心指标、 雇主行为指标等普遍弱于过去 10 年 50%分位数。 从就业市场供需关系来评估当前的就业市场现状，可以看到劳动力市场供需 关系显著降温，工作变得不那么 ...

关于4月当月住户存款减少1.39万亿元，第一财经记者查阅2024年数据发现，2024年第一季度住户存款当年新增额8.56万亿元； 前4个月增加6.71万亿元，即去年4月当月，住户存款减少1.85万亿元。当年也有不少业内人士分析，这主要是季节性因素导致 的"常规"波动，至6月末，这一数字会再度回升。 人民币存款中的住户存款已达约160万亿元的规模。第一财经梳理历年数据发现，2016年，住户存款规模为59.78万亿元；8年多 来，住户存款规模增加了近100万亿元。 不过，从历年数据来看，虽然住户存款占比以及规模不断增加，但住户存款规模增速近两年略有放缓：2022年住户存款增速达 到17.4%的高点后，2023年回落至13.8%，2024年再次放缓至10.4%，今年第一季度为10.3%。 当前外部冲击影响加大，世界经济增长动能不足，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固的背景下，居民储蓄、消 费、投资结构有哪些新动向？ "近年来，国内消费增速有所放缓，但在政策引导与市场机制的双重作用下，消费市场活力正逐步释放，增速呈现稳步回升态 势，展现出复苏向好的积极信号。" 《2025年第一季度货币政策报告》中一篇题为《持 ...