【环球时报综合报道】俄罗斯经济第三季度呈现复杂但整体平衡的发展态势，国内生产总值增速继续放缓，但居民仍有维持国内消费的资金。根据俄国家统 计局的初步评估，9月GDP同比增长0.9%，超过8月的0.4%，但三季度整体增长仅0.6%，1—9月份则为1%。表明第三季度经济活力下降，但居民需求仍稳 定。 积极储蓄购买家电汽车 俄罗斯经济发展部数据显示，9月零售业、餐饮业与付费服务业营收同比增长2.5%，略低于8月的3%。主要下降部分是食品消费，服务类消费和非食品类商 品消费仍保持增长。分析人士认为，居民收入增长仍是俄经济活力的主要驱动力。俄统计局数据显示，三季度居民实际可支配收入增长8.5%，1—9月增幅 达9.2%，远超经济发展部的全年预期（3.8%）。宏观经济分析和短期预测中心专家波利亚科夫说："今年收入水平较2022年季度均值高出26%，为消费活跃 创造了有利条件。" 收入结构变化备受关注。过去1年，俄职工工资提高2个百分点，工资收入占居民总收入的40.9%；其余收入来源占比下降0.4个百分点，至59%。专家认为， 这种变化表明居民核心收入来源稳定，即使工资增速放缓仍能支撑居民消费。尽管工资增速从7月的16%放 ...

人民财讯11月17日电，中信证券研报指出，10月经济数据在供需两端均有所回落。从需求侧来看，10月 投资增速延续快速下行趋势，新型政策性金融工具落地起效仍待时间；假期效应带来餐饮消费回升，今 年10月社零增速小幅下滑但仍超市场预期。从生产侧来看，需求回落和假期效应拖累工业生产表现，服 务业生产指数在高基数影响下回落。展望后续，判断年内外贸出口基本面仍有支撑，固定资产投资在新 型政策性金融工具等政策发力的带动下有望温和改善，但居民消费的温度可能继续偏低。近期国务院办 公厅发文促进民间投资发展并部署场景培育和开放工作，提示关注相关政策落地实施后对投资和消费的 提振效果。 转自：证券时报 ...

中信证券研报称，10月经济数据在供需两端均有所回落。从需求侧来看，10月投资增速延续快速下行趋 势，新型政策性金融工具落地起效仍待时间；假期效应带来餐饮消费回升，今年10月社零增速小幅下滑 但仍超市场预期。从生产侧来看，需求回落和假期效应拖累工业生产表现，服务业生产指数在高基数影 响下回落。展望后续，我们判断年内外贸出口基本面仍有支撑，固定资产投资在新型政策性金融工具等 政策发力的带动下有望温和改善，但居民消费的温度可能继续偏低。近期国务院办公厅发文促进民间投 资发展并部署场景培育和开放工作，提示关注相关政策落地实施后对投资和消费的提振效果。 ...

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, down from 5.2% in Q2, impacted by a high base effect from last year[1] - Nominal GDP growth in Q3 was 3.7%, further declining from 3.9% in Q2, marking a new low for 2023[1] - Q3 GDP deflator decreased by 1%, a smaller decline compared to the 0.2 percentage points drop in Q2[1] Industrial Production - In September, industrial value-added increased by 6.5% YoY, significantly up from 5.2% in August[2] - Seasonally adjusted MoM growth in industrial production reached 0.64%, the highest since March[2] - Automotive manufacturing value-added surged by 16% YoY, improving by 7.6 percentage points from August[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales growth fell to 3% YoY in September, down from 3.4% in August[2] - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.2, continuing an upward trend since Q4 of last year[3] - Per capita disposable income grew by 4.5% YoY, while per capita consumption expenditure increased by 3.4%, both lower than Q2 growth rates[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 7.1% YoY in September, consistent with August's decline[3] - Infrastructure investment dropped by 8%, while real estate development investment fell by 21.3%, widening the decline from the previous month[3] - Cumulative fixed asset investment for the first three quarters showed a 0.5% YoY decrease, indicating negative growth[3] Real Estate Market - In September, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 10.5% YoY, close to August's decline[3] - New residential prices in 70 large and medium cities fell by 0.4% MoM, a larger drop than in August[3] - Overall, real estate demand remains weak, with sales revenue down by 11.8% YoY[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights steady growth in urban and rural residents' disposable income in Sichuan province, with urban residents earning an average of 37,338 yuan and rural residents earning 16,741 yuan, reflecting nominal growth rates of 4.5% and 5.5% respectively [2][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan has shown a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by various factors including slow domestic consumption recovery and price competition in certain industries [3][4] - The report indicates a structural decline in prices, with service prices rising by 0.3% while consumer goods prices fell by 0.8%, highlighting a shift in consumer spending patterns [4][5] Income and Consumption - The average disposable income for residents in Sichuan reached 27,046 yuan, with a nominal increase of 5.3% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.7% after adjusting for inflation [7] - Urban residents' average consumption expenditure was 23,690 yuan, growing by 4.7%, while rural residents' expenditure was 13,902 yuan, with a higher growth rate of 5.6% [7] - The share of service consumption in total spending has increased, with per capita service expenditure rising to 8,608 yuan, a growth of 6.1% [6][7] Price Trends - The report notes that prices for eight categories of goods and services experienced five increases and three decreases, with healthcare prices rising by 0.6% and food prices declining by 1.0% [2][4] - The core CPI in Sichuan showed a positive trend, increasing by 0.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in September reaching a high of 0.6% [5] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) decreased by 2.8%, but there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, particularly in high-tech industries, which have seen price increases [5][6] Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes that rural consumption growth outpaced urban consumption, indicating a significant potential in rural markets [7] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to various government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including policies for replacing old consumer goods [6][7] - Notably, spending on transportation and communication services saw substantial growth, with increases of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively [6]

Core Insights - The current social total demand deficiency presents both challenges and opportunities, as highlighted by Bai Chong'en, Dean of Tsinghua University's Management School [1][2] Group 1: Social Demand and Investment - The low return on investment in society necessitates a greater emphasis on resident consumption from a social governance perspective [1][2] - The government should play a crucial role by making resident consumption a primary evaluation metric [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Recommendations - There is a low cost and high return associated with increasing government fiscal deficits, suggesting that it is worth exploring the idea of appropriately increasing fiscal deficits to facilitate better transitions [1][2]

Core Insights - The Global Wealth Management Forum held on October 19 focused on "The Future Path Under Global Changes," highlighting the contrast between technological innovation and declining profit margins in industrial enterprises, attributed to China's economic structural transformation pains [1][3]. Economic Growth Potential - China has significant long-term growth potential, with emerging economies generally showing higher growth prospects. Chinese enterprises exhibit strong innovation capabilities, and the economy is in need of transformation [3]. Current Economic Challenges - In the short term, China's economy is facing challenges due to structural transformation pains, leading to a decline in industrial profit margins. The high growth rate of manufacturing investment is crucial for maintaining growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 9.2% in 2024, which is expected to stimulate domestic demand [3]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a notable issue where demand in the economy is rapidly shrinking, while supply capacity continues to increase, leading to an imbalance. This situation necessitates a focus on enhancing resident consumption as a key development goal, transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the financial sector, highlighting the impact of economic policies and market trends on investment opportunities and risks [1]. Group 1 - The financial industry is experiencing significant changes due to shifts in economic policies, which are influencing market dynamics and investor behavior [1]. - Recent data indicates a notable increase in investment activity, with a reported growth of 15% in the last quarter compared to the previous year [1]. - Analysts are observing a trend towards sustainable investments, with a 25% rise in funds allocated to green projects over the past year [1]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes, which are expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the banking sector [1]. - There is a growing concern regarding the potential risks associated with rising interest rates, which could impact borrowing costs and overall market stability [1]. - The article also notes that technological advancements are driving innovation in financial services, leading to increased efficiency and new product offerings [1].

Economic Overview - The domestic economy shows a trend of "stability with growth," with GDP expected to grow by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - Despite economic growth, consumer demand remains low, with prices of goods like cars and home appliances in a downward trend [1] - Total bank deposits of residents surged by 10.77 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reaching a historic high [1] Consumer Behavior - Experts suggest lowering bank deposit interest rates to zero to encourage spending, but residents are still reluctant to consume [3] - The primary reasons for low consumer spending include significant wealth disparity, high housing prices, and the overdevelopment of e-commerce [3][5] Wealth Disparity - Although GDP is increasing, the majority of wealth is concentrated among the government and corporations, leaving laborers with a smaller share [5] - Only 2% of families hold 80% of the deposits, while 98% hold just 20% [5] - Many households are saving for future expenses like healthcare, education, and housing, leading to a reluctance to spend [5] Housing Market - Housing prices remain high, with the price-to-income ratio in second and third-tier cities at 20-25 and in first-tier cities at 40 [7] - High housing costs severely limit disposable income, as families often spend over 40% of their income on mortgage repayments [7] - Reducing housing prices and increasing affordable housing availability are essential for improving consumer spending [7] E-commerce Impact - The rise of e-commerce has changed shopping habits, with consumers favoring online shopping for lower prices and convenience [8] - However, overdevelopment of e-commerce may harm long-term economic growth due to limited job creation compared to physical stores [8] - The profitability of e-commerce is concentrated among leading companies, while small and medium-sized e-commerce businesses struggle to survive, impacting overall consumer demand [9]