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绿城服务(2869.HK)2026年度投资峰会速递:向着2025年指引目标坚实迈进
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-08 04:59
Core Viewpoint - The company reaffirms its performance guidance for 2025, emphasizing cash distribution through dividends and share buybacks, while sharing strategies for improving profitability and managing accounts receivable [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Guidance - The company maintains its initial guidance for 2025, targeting a double-digit year-on-year growth in property service revenue, an overall gross margin increase of 0.5 percentage points, a decrease in sales and management expense ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and a 15% year-on-year growth in core operating profit [1]. - The company aims for operating cash flow net income to cover net profit attributable to shareholders by more than one time, with a target of 4 billion yuan in new contract amounts for the year [1]. - The focus for the next 3-5 years will be on improving efficiency rather than revenue growth, with a goal of maintaining double-digit growth in core operating profit [1]. Group 2: Cash Utilization Plan - The company prioritizes dividends and share buybacks, with a dividend payout ratio for 2025 not less than the historical average of 50%, and has initiated a new round of share buybacks since October [1]. - The company does not plan to consider mergers and acquisitions of homogeneous properties and is cautious about diversifying into other business areas, focusing primarily on strategic investments rather than financial investments [1]. Group 3: Profitability Improvement - The company shared several efficiency enhancement measures, including the "All Staff Housekeeper" program, the "Golden Plate Plan" for measuring cleaning and greening work areas, shutting down inefficient value-added services, incentivizing employees for performance, and the "Lighthouse Action" integrating AI with property management [2]. Group 4: Accounts Receivable Management - The company requires management entities to take responsibility for overdue accounts receivable and actively pursue large overdue payments [2]. - The "All Staff Housekeeper" program is used to understand the needs of clients with outstanding payments, aiming to resolve issues effectively [2]. - The company seeks to shorten payment cycles for B-end clients, moving from quarterly to monthly payments, and focuses on expanding projects only in 56 key cities while carefully evaluating project repayment capabilities [2]. Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 at 0.30, 0.36, and 0.43 yuan respectively [2]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 13.4 times, while the company believes a reasonable PE ratio for 2025 is 20 times, setting a target price of 6.56 HKD [2].