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碳酸锂数据日报-20250930
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the increase in demand leads to a supply - demand mismatch, which supports the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles creates downstream stocking demand, and with the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economy of independent energy storage becomes apparent, resulting in strong installation demand. The continuous reduction of social inventory due to substantial terminal digestion and the active downstream stocking support the futures price. On the supply side, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 yuan, down 50 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts: the price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,760 yuan, up 1.15%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,920 yuan, up 0.93%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,960 yuan, up 0.85%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,900 yuan, up 0.98%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 73,400 yuan, up 0.77% [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 858 yuan, and the prices of different grades of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone are also given, such as lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) at 1140 yuan, lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) at 1875 yuan, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) at 6150 yuan, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) at 7285 yuan [1][2] 3.3 Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan, down 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 149,350 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,750 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 126,650 yuan, up 450 yuan [2] 3.4 Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 370 yuan, down 1090 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 200 yuan, up 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,825 tons, down 706 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,492 tons, down 964 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 60,893 tons, up 1398 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,440 tons, down 1140 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 41,119 tons, up 790 tons [2] 3.6 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,433 yuan, and the profit is - 2953 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 8238 yuan [3] 3.7 Company News - Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25th, most employees are on holiday, and it may resume production in November due to the stop of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun Shixiawo lithium mine [3]