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狭义货币(M1)增速
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时报观察 | 推动资金从“停留账户”转向“投入市场”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-16 19:01
Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in M1 growth to 7.2% at the end of September indicates a rise in social investment and consumption activity, although the underlying demand remains weak and requires policy support for stabilization [1][3]. Group 1: M1 Growth Factors - The rise in M1 growth is attributed to a low base effect from last year and short-term funding factors, including the impact of bank rectifications and the return of deposits from non-bank channels [2]. - Seasonal factors, such as the maturity of financial products and local government efforts to clear corporate debts, have also contributed to the increase in demand deposits [2]. - The conversion of maturing high-interest time deposits into demand deposits has played a significant role in the ongoing recovery of M1 [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - M1 growth is often viewed as an indicator of market liquidity, but the correlation with stock market activity may weaken as asset allocation channels diversify [2]. - The decline in opportunity costs for holding demand deposits and money market funds has led to an increase in non-bank deposits and M1, rather than a direct inflow into the stock market [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Sustained M1 growth reflects a trend towards more liquid deposits, but transitioning funds from accounts to market investments depends on improved market expectations and a real recovery in domestic demand [3]. - Continuous policy efforts to stimulate domestic demand and address economic bottlenecks are essential for driving further economic growth [3].