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最新居民存贷款数据,透露哪些信号?
第一财经· 2025-07-16 04:07
2025.07. 16 本文字数:3177,阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 7月14日,央行发布的6月金融数据显示,当月新增信贷2.24万亿元,同比多增1100亿元,信贷余额同比 增长7.1%,持平上月;M2同比增速升至8.3%,M1同比提升至4.6%,两者剪刀差收窄至3.7个百分点, 资金活化态势明显。 金融数据亮点突出,信贷与社融增量显著回升,居民、企业、政府三部门均衡发力,印证了货币政策对实 体经济支持力度加大,降息降准及新型政策性工具等扩内需措施成效显现。同时,存款结构优化、活化特 征凸显,M1增速持续反弹。 值得注意的是,6月,居民信贷呈现"同比微增、环比大幅上扬"态势,消费与购房需求温和修复。不过, 居民贷款增长因去年低基数显得平淡。此外,从上半年整体来看,居民部门贷款结构上呈现"中长期主 导、短期拖累"特征,反映出消费与购房意愿仍待进一步提振。 居民信贷"中长期主导、短期拖累" 6月,我国居民部门信贷呈现恢复态势,实现同比微增、环比大幅增加,消费与购房需求温和修复。 环比来看,6月,人民币贷款环比增加1.62万亿元。其中,住户贷款环比增加5436亿元,短贷、中长期贷 款较上月增幅明 ...
M2、M1剪刀差收窄,最新居民存贷款数据透露哪些信号?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 11:32
Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June, new credit increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, with a credit balance growth of 7.1% [1][2] - M2 growth rate rose to 8.3%, while M1 increased to 4.6%, indicating a significant activation of funds [1][7] - The financial data highlights a notable recovery in credit and social financing, reflecting enhanced monetary policy support for the real economy [1][4] Group 2: Consumer and Housing Demand - In June, household credit showed a "slight year-on-year increase and a significant month-on-month rise," indicating a moderate recovery in consumption and housing demand [2][3] - The average interest rate for personal housing loans dropped to 3.1%, easing the monthly payment burden on residents and contributing to a 17% month-on-month increase in housing transactions in 30 major cities [2][3] Group 3: Loan Structure and Trends - The structure of household loans in the first half of the year showed a "long-term dominance and short-term drag" characteristic, with total household loans increasing by 1.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 290 billion yuan [3][4] - Short-term loans decreased slightly, while medium- and long-term loans increased significantly, reflecting cautious consumer behavior regarding spending and housing purchases [3][4] Group 4: Deposit Trends - In the first half of the year, RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 320.17 trillion yuan by the end of June, showing an 8.3% year-on-year growth [6][7] - The structure of deposits has shifted, with a significant increase in the proportion of demand deposits, reaching 83% for households and 95% for enterprises [7][8] Group 5: Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy focus for the second half of the year will center on "expanding domestic demand" and "curbing involution," with expectations for further monetary easing [9][10] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to support key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption, aiming to enhance economic restructuring and transformation [9][10]