专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 马年A股喜迎"开门红"，节后首个交易日，A股三大指数全线高开收涨。 针对节后A股市场行情，长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表示，A股市场有望企稳回升，当前市场存 在多重积极支撑因素。一是无风险收益率下行与资本市场改革持续深化，贴现率下行对市场估值形成支 撑，为A股营造了良好的流动性环境；二是内需政策全面发力，经济工作将内需置于首要位置，市场对 传统内需板块的悲观预期有望逐步修正，消费与投资端均迎来政策与基本面共振；三是出口景气度向好 预期明确，叠加国内新技术产业突破与全球化扩张提速，共同推动2026年中国经济预期实质性企稳上 修，成为A股上行的关键动力。 投资思路上，汪立认为，新兴科技是主线，价值股也会有春天。中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导， 并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升与地产企稳"预期"会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交 易出清，价值股有望迎来拐点。 军工，以及储能、电网等出海制造，因为中美的竞争不再只是贸易的竞争，更是生产效率的竞争；大金 融方向或可关注券商、保险等细分方向，作为市场稳定器，该板块将充分受益于财富管理需求的持续 ...

t 31 - 11 - 1 Friday of Special A JUDD 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 马年初八将迎来A股首个交易日，A股市场将如何运行？招商证券首席策略分析师张夏接受记者采访时表示，马年A股慢牛行情有望延续。"2026年上市公司 盈利增速有望进一步回升，预测非金融及两油A股上市公司2026年有望实现5%至10%的温和增长，盈利增速将会对A股市场上行产生关键动力。"他分析指 出，2026年A股整体仍处在盈利增速回升和估值温和扩张的阶段，预计上证指数上涨幅度介于10%至15%之间。 "A股本轮上行周期正从流动性驱动、赛道股占优的'牛市第二阶段'，向以盈利改善为驱动力的'牛市第三阶段'过渡。关键观察变量是PPI的触底回升，这通常 标志着企业盈利实质性改善"。张夏表示，在此过渡期内，市场风格将趋于均衡。 2026年以来，A股日均成交额保持在2万亿元上方。张夏认为，在A股过去两年有较好赚钱效应以及整体中高回报率资产荒的背景下，2026年A股资金供需有 望延续较大规模净流入，或达1.56万亿元，为实现慢牛带来流动性支持。 具体来看，资金供给端，公募基金将延续发行回暖趋势，如果能够有效突破扭亏阻力 ...

Group 1 - Gao Yi Asset's latest US stock holdings were disclosed, showing a total market value exceeding $600 million across 13 companies as of the end of 2025 [1][3] - The top ten holdings are dominated by Chinese concept stocks, with significant increases in positions for Pinduoduo and Beike, and a new investment in Yixian E-commerce [1][3][9] - The largest holding is Huazhu Hotels Group, which has consistently been the top position for multiple quarters [4][9] Group 2 - Huazhu Hotels Group reported a hotel revenue of 30.6 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with over 12,000 hotels in operation [5] - Pinduoduo saw a revenue of 108.28 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, marking a decline in growth rate [7] - The overall sentiment in the private equity sector is optimistic regarding domestic demand recovery in 2026, with expectations for opportunities in consumer and real estate sectors [10][11] Group 3 - The real estate cycle's impact on consumption is diminishing, and domestic demand is being driven by growth in other sectors [12] - Increased social capital activity is expected to positively influence economic recovery, supported by proactive policy signals [12][13] - Analysts suggest that the turning point for domestic demand is approaching, with opportunities emerging in sectors like hospitality and consumer goods [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, showing characteristics of valuation-driven and structural differentiation, with an upward trend expected to continue post-Spring Festival [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing a clear upward trend supported by improving corporate earnings, increased willingness of residents to invest, and ongoing policies to optimize industry competition [2]. - Short-term market fluctuations are expected due to seasonal effects, particularly around the Lunar New Year, but the overall upward trend remains intact [2][4]. Market Structure Characteristics - Historical data shows that since 2009, the average spring market rally lasts 57 days with an average increase of over 20%, with value blue-chip sectors performing well before the Spring Festival [3]. - The equity market is currently in a bullish window until early March 2026, with a focus on risk management and strategic positioning [3]. Post-Spring Festival Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, supported by macroeconomic recovery, stable policy environment, and regulatory measures to prevent overheating [4]. - There is potential for a "red envelope market" if consumer data exceeds expectations, reinforcing cyclical sector support [4]. Investment Strategies - The investment logic post-Spring Festival will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical sectors [7]. - Five key investment themes are recommended: 1. AI industry chain focusing on application development and performance-driven investments [7]. 2. High dividend yield assets, particularly in stable cash flow sectors like home appliances and banking [7]. 3. Sectors benefiting from policy-driven improvements, such as coal, steel, and lithium [7]. 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, including health, sports, and travel industries [8]. 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals, anticipating a rebound in prices [8].

当前A股市场受多重因素交织影响，呈现估值驱动、结构分化的运行特征。日前，财信证券首席经济学 家袁闯接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，当前市场上行格局尚未改变，春节后A股有望延续震荡走强态 势，市场将向成长风格切换。后续核心投资逻辑将围绕"价值搭台、成长唱戏"的规律展开，建议聚焦五 大方向均衡配置，审慎应对海外扰动等潜在风险，把握结构性机会。 多重因素主导估值驱动行情 当前，A股市场受多重因素交织影响，整体格局复杂，核心特征表现为趋势清晰、短期扰动因素较多、 结构分化显著。 预计节后A股震荡走强 "春节后A股将延续震荡走强态势，核心逻辑源于趋势惯性、季节效应与政策环境的三重支撑。"袁闯表 示，宏观经济弱复苏格局延续，"双宽松"政策基调保持稳定，为市场构筑坚实支撑，指数下行空间预计 相对有限；同时监管层通过逆周期调节重点防范过热风险，市场整体呈现"稳中趋升"的特征。 袁闯建议，投资者应保持适度仓位应对市场机会、平衡波动风险，通过灵活配置攻防型资产适配自身风 险偏好。 春节后A股大概率迎来"红包行情"。袁闯认为，核心驱动力在于本轮行情的持续时长与上涨幅度仍显著 低于前五轮上涨行情的均值，后续仍有拓展空间。倘若春节消费数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, driven by a combination of trend inertia, seasonal effects, and policy environment support [3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, exhibiting a complex overall pattern characterized by clear trends, numerous short-term disturbances, and significant structural differentiation [1] - The core driving force for the market's upward trend is the self-propelling nature of the market, supported by regulatory measures to mitigate risks and prevent overheating [1][3] - Key support for the market's upward movement includes improving corporate profit outlooks, increased willingness of residents to invest savings, and ongoing policies to optimize industry competition [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - Short-term market fluctuations are influenced by holiday effects, with some funds opting to secure profits before the Lunar New Year, leading to a temporary decrease in trading activity [2] - The performance of U.S. tech giants, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical events indirectly affect the rotation of A-share industries [2] Investment Strategy - Post-Spring Festival, the investment logic will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical price increases [5] - Five main investment lines are suggested: 1. AI industry chain focusing on application breakthroughs [5] 2. High dividend assets in stable cash flow sectors [5] 3. Anti-involution sectors benefiting from improved competition [5] 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, particularly in health and travel sectors [6] 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "red envelope market" post-Spring Festival, with potential for further expansion due to the current market's performance being below historical averages [3] - The growth of the A-share market is anticipated to be independent of the overall yearly trend, with a focus on technology growth while balancing risks across multiple sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, driven by a combination of trend inertia, seasonal effects, and policy environment support [3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, exhibiting a complex overall pattern characterized by clear trends, numerous short-term disturbances, and significant structural differentiation [1] - The core support for the market's upward trend includes improving corporate profit prospects, increased willingness of residents to invest, and ongoing policies to reduce competition [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - The pre-Spring Festival period has led to a temporary decline in market activity as some funds opted to secure profits amid uncertainty, but this has not altered the core market trend [2] - Historical data shows that since 2009, the average spring market rally has lasted 57 days with an average increase of over 20% [2] Investment Strategy - Post-Spring Festival, the investment logic will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical sectors [4] - Five key investment themes are recommended: 1. Artificial intelligence industry chain, shifting focus from hardware to application [5] 2. High dividend yield assets, particularly in stable cash flow sectors like white goods and banking [5] 3. Anti-involution sectors benefiting from improved competition dynamics, such as coal and steel [5] 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, focusing on sectors with strong growth potential like health and tourism [6] 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals, anticipating a rebound in prices [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "red envelope market" post-Spring Festival, with potential for further expansion if consumer data exceeds expectations [3] - The overall market is projected to maintain a "stable and upward" characteristic, with limited downside potential for indices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in the Year of the Horse, supported by multiple favorable factors such as global liquidity easing, steady domestic economic recovery, improving corporate profits, and a supportive policy environment [1][5][8]. Market Outlook - The overall market is anticipated to continue a stable upward trend, potentially achieving a "three consecutive annual gains" for the first time in years, driven by corporate profits, market confidence, and a shift in deposit allocation [5][6]. - The market style is expected to transition from liquidity-driven to profit-driven, highlighting opportunities in technology growth, cyclical recovery, high-end manufacturing exports, and domestic demand recovery [1][3][8]. Sector Opportunities - Key investment themes include: 1. AI industry chain bottlenecks, particularly in infrastructure such as power, storage, and cooling [14]. 2. High-end manufacturing with global competitiveness, especially in engineering machinery, power equipment, and new energy vehicles [14][15]. 3. Cyclical leaders benefiting from supply-demand improvements due to policies against "involution" [14][15]. - The technology growth sector remains a core focus, with ongoing trends in AI and semiconductor hardware expected to drive investment opportunities [12][19]. Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment is viewed as stable, with systemic risks being low. The expectation of a positive macro policy in 2026 is anticipated to alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. - The overall investment environment is expected to improve, with a gradual increase in incremental capital entering the market, driven by the performance of active equity funds [7][8]. Market Style Evolution - The market is likely to experience a "rebalancing" of styles, with both technology and cyclical sectors coexisting and presenting investment opportunities [11][12]. - The anticipated economic recovery may lead to a significant "high-low switch," where funds shift from high-valued sectors to those at historical lows [12][18]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in AI-related narratives that could impact market stability [23][24][25].

宏观数据动态点评 春运"火"，长假"旺"？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 今年春运的"火"，能否映射出假期内需的"旺"？2026 年春运，在"史上最长" 春节假期的强劲驱动下，正以前所未有的热度拉开帷幕，流动规模有望创下新高。 这背后，是超长假期、天气晴好、运力保障等因素共同促成的"天时地利人和"。 然而值得注意的是，与客运系统持续高位运行形成对比，大宗商品与部分线下服 务消费的复苏节奏则显得相对平缓。这一"出行热、消费温"的冷暖图景，不仅 勾勒出年初内需复苏的真实轮廓，可能也为年后不久的全国两会政策基调提供了 重要注脚。 2026 年春运将迎来一幅"万马奔腾"的胜景。根据交通运输部官方预测，今年春 运 40 天全社会人员流动总量有望创历史新高，同时单日 ...

今日（1月29日），白酒等消费股迎来大反弹。截至收盘，贵州茅台大涨8.6%，成交额超260亿元。金种子酒、皇台酒业、迎驾贡酒、金徽酒等近20 股涨停。白酒板块全天成交金额超600亿。 消息面上，本周以来，多款飞天茅台价格涨幅明显，与1月26日相比，2026年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2026年飞天茅台散瓶上 涨了20元；2025年飞天茅台原箱（53度/500ml）上涨了55元，2025年飞天茅台散瓶上涨了20元。 华安证券在近日的研报中也指出，以食品饮料为代表的消费行业已经历持续5年之久的罕见下跌，背后是市场共识的彻底扭转，叙事逻辑由持续上涨 期的"核心资产"转为调整期的"传统资产，导致当前多数消费细分板块及头部企业已处在历史估值5%/10%以下分位水平。当前在风格的极致分化之 下，预计2026年后续消费头部企业的下跌空间将会有限、向上弹性将会更大。 从底层逻辑上看，随着更多关注内需和消费的政策出台，机构认为，2026年初，扩内需政策进入密集落地期，国家发展改革委、财政部联合印发《关 于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，商务部部署提振消费专项行动，从实物消费到服务 ...