扬子晚报网1月6日讯(记者范晓林薄云峰实习生潘伊笑)新年头两个交易日A股不负众望，沪指刷新10年来新高，多家券商也纷纷有话要说。整体来看，券 商对2026年A股的行情保持乐观，认为"转型牛""长牛""结构牛"等升势远未结束，A股牛市有望在2026年持续。 | ◀ 上证指数 ▶ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1A0001 | | | | 4041.59 + | | | | +18.17 +0.45% 加自选 | | | | 最高 4042.65 今开 4026.02 | 成交量 | 1.01亿 | | 昨收 4023.42 最低 4025.09 | 成交额 | 1788.84亿 | | 量比 4.05 委比 8.72% | 振 幅 | 0.44% | | m 直播 春季行情机会, 反弹核心关注谁? 商业... | | | | 分时 王日 周Ｋ | 月K | 更多。 0 | | 领先4046 最新4041.59 +18.17 +0.45% | | | | 4048.77 0.63% | | | | 4423.42 0.00% | | | | ப | | | | 3998.07 -0.63 ...

2026年首个交易日，A股喜迎"开门红"！ 第三，A500ETF等宽基产品持续吸引资金流入，人民币汇率走强助推外资回流，险资"开门红"2026年新增保费将用于权益投资也为市场提供增量资金，共 同营造了宽松的流动性环境。 第四，美国科技巨头宣布脑机接口设备将于2026年量产，国内商业航天龙头IPO进程加速等科技产业利好频出，显著提振市场风险偏好，推动成长板块领 涨。 景顺长城基金也表示，今日市场大涨，由于假期外围市场上涨以及春季行情预期共同驱动，具体来看：第一，A股假期休市期间，外围市场普遍上涨，港 股恒生指数和恒生科技在1月2日分别上涨2.76%、4.0%，与半导体产业高度相关的韩国综合指数也再度大涨创出新高，离岸人民币汇率升至6.96关口，创 下近两年新高水平。外围市场的良好表现促使A股明显高开，半导体板块表现突出。 数据显示，A股指数放量大涨，沪指不仅重新站上4000点关口，更是自2025年12月17日至今，沪指日K线已录得12连阳，创1992年3月以来最长连阳纪录。 同时，今日市场成交额大幅放量5000亿元至2.57万亿元，创下近两月新高。行业层面，仅有石油石化、银行、交通运输和商贸零售微跌，传媒、医药 ...

【导读】沪指12连阳创出33年纪录，机构解读：A股春季行情或仍有上行空间 中国基金报记者 方丽 曹雯璟 同时，今日市场成交额大幅放量5000亿元至2.57万亿元，创下近两月新高。行业层面，仅有 石油石化、银行、交通运输和商贸零售微跌，传媒、医药生物、电子领涨市场。 春季行情是否开启？后市将如何演绎？中国基金报记者第一时间采访了博时、招商、广发、 景顺长城、长城、泉果、恒生前海等基金公司。他们认为，由于假期外围市场上涨以及春季 行情预期共同驱动了"开门红"，A股春季行情或仍有上行空间，看好消费电子、顺周期、AI等 领域。 多因素引发"开门红" 元旦假期港股市场大涨。2025年12月中国制造业PMI超预期回升至扩张区间，人民币汇率走 强助推外资回流等因素，共同推动2026年A股市场"开门红"。 招商基金表示，今日A股市场上涨是多重因素共振的结果：第一，受元旦假期港股市场大涨提 振，恒生科技指数1月2日上涨4%。AI应用加速落地事件催化频繁与AI产业催化不断，AI科技 周期向上背景下港股科技、半导体板块领涨。 2026年首个交易日，A股喜迎"开门红"！ 数据显示，今日A股指数放量大涨，沪指不仅重新站上4000点关口 ...

新华财经北京1月5日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下： 中国证券报 ·赋能新质生产力助力长钱长投全链条织密投保"安全网" 2026年资本市场关键制度将持续升级 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》1月1日起正式施行、修改后的《证券期货行政执法当事人 承诺制度实施规定》2月1日起施行、上市公司董秘监管规则公开征求意见……2026年开年，一系列资本 市场关键制度持续升级，释放出深化改革的强烈信号。市场人士预期，2026年资本市场改革将进一步全 面深化，包括服务发展新质生产力、助力长钱长投、全链条织密投保"安全网"等在内的一系列改革有望 加快推进。 ·基金销售新规六举措切实让利投资者预计每年为投资者节省约300亿元 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》日前修订发布，自2026年1月1日起正式施行。规定共六章 29条，核心围绕六大举措切实让利投资者，包括合理调降公募基金认（申）购费、销售服务费率水平， 切实降低投资者成本等。在市场人士看来，作为公募基金费率改革"三步走"的收官之策，此次聚焦销售 环节的费率调整，实现全行业销售费用整体降幅达34%，预计每年为投资者节省约300亿元。叠加前两 阶段降费成果，累计年让利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the selection of 26 potential stocks across various categories, driven by favorable earnings expectations and market conditions [2][5][11]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a structural bull market in 2026, transitioning from a technology-driven focus to a more balanced growth across sectors [5][6]. - Major indices are projected to see significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to rise by 12% by the end of 2026 [7]. - The overall market sentiment is supported by positive macroeconomic policies, improving fundamentals, and a steady influx of capital [6][9]. Group 2: Earnings Growth - Forecasts indicate that the net profit growth rates for the CSI 300 index are expected to reach 9.18% and 9.23% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the ChiNext index is projected to grow by 30.52% and 22.98% [9]. - The profitability of non-financial companies in the A-share market is anticipated to stabilize, driven by rising producer prices [9]. - Goldman Sachs predicts a more optimistic profit growth of 14% and 12% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. Group 3: Selected Potential Stocks - Data Treasure has identified 26 potential stocks for 2026, categorized into six cyclical stocks, five AI technology stocks, five undervalued dividend stocks, five domestic recovery stocks, and five overseas chain stocks [2][11]. - The cyclical stocks are expected to benefit from price increases due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and recovering producer prices [11][13]. - AI technology stocks are selected based on their anticipated strong performance in the TMT sector, with companies like SiTwei-W and Hohhot Information being highlighted [14]. Group 4: Investment Themes - The investment themes for 2026 include AI technology, high-end manufacturing, cyclical recovery, and domestic consumption recovery, with dividend stocks serving as a stable foundation [12][17]. - The focus on dividend stocks is reinforced by their high predicted dividend yields, with companies like Jianghe Group expected to have a dividend yield close to 6% [15]. - The potential stocks exhibit diverse characteristics, balancing growth potential and defensive qualities to navigate market volatility [17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend driven by earnings in 2026, with a consensus among institutions on a "balanced and strong" market structure, focusing on sectors like AI technology, high-end manufacturing, cyclical stocks, undervalued dividend stocks, and domestic demand recovery [1][21][27] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market in 2025 showed a structural rally, with major indices rising over 18% and 29 out of 31 sectors experiencing gains [1][21] - Institutions predict a shift from a technology-dominated market to a more balanced bull market across various sectors in 2026 [5][27] - Major foreign investment banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have optimistic projections for the A-share market, with targets for the CSI 300 index set at 5200 points, indicating a 12% increase from 2025 [7][30] Group 2: Earnings Growth - Earnings growth for the CSI 300 index is forecasted at 9.18% and 9.23% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the ChiNext index is expected to see growth rates of 30.52% and 22.98% [11][32] - The STAR 50 index is projected to have a remarkable earnings growth of 88.46% in 2026 and 33.54% in 2027 [11][32] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A total of 26 potential stocks for 2026 have been identified, categorized into cyclical stocks, AI technology stocks, undervalued dividend stocks, domestic recovery stocks, and overseas expansion stocks [1][14] - The cyclical stocks are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [14][35] - AI technology stocks selected are based on strong future earnings growth predictions, including companies like Siwei Technology and Huahai Qingke [15][36] Group 4: Institutional Sentiment - Institutions are generally optimistic about the A-share market, with many reports indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [5][27][28] - The average number of rating agencies covering the identified potential stocks is close to 17, indicating strong institutional interest [40][42] - Stocks like Yanjing Beer and Hisense Home Appliances have received attention from over 20 rating agencies, reflecting their attractiveness to institutions [40][42]

2025 年 12 月 PMI 数据点评 12 月 PMI：重回扩张有何不寻常？ glmszqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 事件：12 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 12 月中国采购经理指数运行情况。12 月份， 制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.1%，比上月上升 0.9 个百分点，升至扩张区 间。 12 月制造业 PMI 的"逆季节性"上升实属不易。不仅是时隔 8 个月、PMI 重回 扩张区间；更为关键的是，比起"春节效应"褪去后的 3 月 PMI 脉冲式升高，这 次 12 月 PMI 的"逆季节性"上升似乎含金量更足——受寒潮来袭、国内外节假 日等特殊因素影响，12 月 PMI 通常会季节性下降，但今年却环比逆势大幅上升 0.9pct、录得 50.1%的好成 ...

"2026年将迎来关键的中美政策周期共振，这不仅是宏观需求的重要推手，更将成为A股市场从流动性 驱动迈向盈利驱动新阶段的核心转折点。"近日，在谈及新一年的投资展望时，招商证券首席策略分析 师张夏提出了鲜明观点。 在他看来，以PPI回升为标志的盈利改善将引领市场进入牛市第三阶段，而内需复苏与科技自立构成的 双轮驱动主线，将定义全年的核心机遇。 中美需求共振，有望提振大宗商品需求 2026年A股会面临怎样的宏观环境？ 招商证券策略研究团队认为，过去依赖地产、基建信用扩张的增长模式已式微，2022年后广义政府支出 成为总需求波动的核心边际力量，股市走势与之高度相关。在"十五五"规划开局之年，政策定调积极， 预计财政支出将保持扩张，基建与重大项目集中落地有望带动投资，特别是基建增速回升，与潜在的房 地产企稳政策形成合力，共同对冲出口回落压力，推动内需回暖、总需求增速重回扩张。 与此同时，2026年正值美国中期选举年。"历史规律显示美国政府倾向于推行扩张性财政货币政策以提 振经济"，张夏指出，这与中国"十五五"开局形成中美需求共振，有望提振全球工业金属等大宗商品需 求。同时，在美元信用长期过度扩张、其全球储备货币地位相 ...

Core Insights - The satellite-related ETFs and tourism-related ETFs showed strong performance with gains exceeding 6% during the period from December 15 to 19, while cross-border ETFs faced declines [1][7] - The overall market experienced fluctuations, but there was a significant net inflow of over 87 billion yuan into ETFs, indicating a clear bottom-fishing sentiment among investors [8] - Broad-based ETFs attracted the most capital, with seven out of the top ten ETFs by net inflow being broad-based ETFs, including the A500 ETF and the ChiNext ETF [8] Performance Summary - The top-performing ETFs included: - Satellite ETF (E Fund) with a weekly gain of 7.04% and a turnover rate of 146.49% [9] - Tourism ETFs with gains of 6.77% and 6.71% respectively [9] - Other notable performers included the satellite industry ETF and the aerospace ETF, both showing gains above 5% [9] - Conversely, cross-border ETFs, particularly the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF and the S&P Oil & Gas ETF, experienced significant declines, with the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF down by 5.24% [10] Fund Flow Analysis - From December 15 to 19, several broad-based ETFs saw substantial net inflows, with the A500 ETF (E Fund) and the ChiNext ETF leading with net inflows of 27 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan respectively [11] - The inflow into cross-border ETFs and innovative bond ETFs was also notable, with several ETFs in these categories exceeding 10 billion yuan in net inflows [11] Trading Volume Insights - The trading volume for ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index was significantly high, with multiple ETFs achieving average daily trading volumes exceeding 70 billion yuan [12] - The top three ETFs by trading volume included the Hong Kong Securities ETF, A500 ETF (E Fund), and ChiNext ETF, with weekly trading volumes of 520 billion yuan, 290 billion yuan, and 191 billion yuan respectively [12] Market Outlook - Investment firms like Invesco Great Wall Fund maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, particularly in the equity sector, emphasizing technology as a key focus area for future growth [13] - Recommendations include a shift from defensive to aggressive positioning, with a focus on technology indices and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [13]

截至2025年12月18日 11:11，上证180指数(000010)下跌0.01%。成分股方面涨跌互现，上海机场(600009) 领涨6.70%，中国卫通(601698)上涨5.63%，中金公司(601995)上涨5.27%；生益科技(600183)领跌 4.86%，工业富联(601138)下跌4.75%，中信建投(601066)下跌2.77%。上证180ETF指数基金(530280)最新 报价1.19元。 消息面上，11月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，对工业增 长贡献率达56.4%，产业升级带动下的经济基本面改善为指数提供支撑。此外，证监会强化"扶优限 劣"分类监管，对优质机构优化风控指标、打开资本空间，助力金融板块估值修复。 招商证券认为，展望2026年作为中国"十五五"规划开局之年与美国中期选举年，将形成关键的政策共 振，推动PPI上行，A股从牛市II阶段向以盈利改善为驱动力的"牛市III阶段"过渡。在过往两年赚钱效应 不错和中高回报率资产荒的背景下，A股资金供需有望延续较大规模净流入，为实现慢牛带来流动性支 持。投资策略应把握"风格切换觅周期，双轮驱动看长 ...