Core Insights - The pig industry is entering its peak season, but the market has not yet emerged from a "cold winter" with significant losses continuing despite increased sales volume [1][4] - Major listed pig companies have reported a general increase in slaughter volume, with some companies achieving their annual targets ahead of schedule, yet the average sales price has dropped nearly 30% year-on-year [1][4] Company Performance - Major listed pig companies have collectively slaughtered over 150 million pigs from January to November 2025, with companies like Wens Foodstuff and Zhengbang Technology completing their annual targets early [1][4] - In November, Muyuan Foods sold 6.602 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, while Wens Foodstuff reached a new high with 4.3535 million pigs sold, marking a 49.71% year-on-year increase [6][3] - Zhengbang Technology and Aonong Biological showed significant growth, with Zhengbang selling 868,300 pigs in November, up 63.04% year-on-year, and Aonong selling 160,000 pigs, up 72.21% year-on-year [3][6] Pricing Trends - Despite increased sales volume, the low pig prices have negatively impacted revenue for listed companies, with Muyuan's average sales price at 11.56 yuan/kg, down 28.73% year-on-year, and Wens' price at 11.71 yuan/kg, down 29.92% [3][6] - The price drop has led to a more significant decline in revenue for companies like Tangrenshen, which saw a 34.16% year-on-year decrease in sales revenue despite a 7.78% drop in sales volume [3][6] Market Dynamics - The long-term low performance of the pig market is attributed to an imbalance in supply and demand, with a high absolute number of breeding sows still present despite adjustments [4][7] - Experts indicate that while the pig market is expected to enter its peak consumption season, the overall price trend is likely to remain weak due to continued supply pressure from a high number of new piglets born earlier in the year [4][7]

其次，外调渠道受限，也导致了过剩产能难以向外疏解。作为生猪主产区，外调是广西缓解本地供应压 力的重要途径，但当前外调渠道面临双重阻碍，无法有效疏解过剩产能。与广东市场相比，尽管广西猪 价存在2.0-2.5元／公斤的价差，但两地执行的"点对点"调运政策制约了调运规模。 对于北方销区而言，价差优势则被高额运费抵消。据卓创资讯监测，当前广西与北方地区的猪价价差为 1.6元／公斤上下，广西至华北主销区的生猪运输距离超2000公里，加上检疫、损耗等成本，总成本较 高，两地区价差不足以覆盖调运成本。贸易商外调基本无利润可图，甚至可能亏损，导致北方外调渠道 也基本停滞，本地过剩生猪只能依赖区内消化，进一步压低区域猪价。 多重压力下，近期广西生猪价格持续走低，成为全国猪价"洼地"。据卓创资讯统计，目前广西地区猪价 已成为22个省份的最低价，并且较全国平均水平低1.0-1.4元／公斤，部分低价地区甚至已经跌破成本 线。 分析来看，养殖端计划出栏量增加、调运受限、环保行动、以及猪病的发生等多重因素，共同导致广西 猪价低迷。 首先从出栏情况来看，当前广西猪价承压的首要原因，在于供应端的持续放量。9月广西养殖端生猪计 划出栏量环比增 ...