【冠通期货研究报告】 供应端：节前螺纹钢周度产量由高位回落。2026 年 2 月 26 日当周， 螺纹钢产量为 165.1 万吨，较前一周减少 5.28 万吨，公历同比减少 41.4 万 吨，2026 年产量显著低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后主动减产， 以应对需求疲软和库存压力。 需求端：终端需求断崖式下滑处于历史低位。2026 年 2 月 26 日当周， 当期表需仅 33.55 万吨，环比上周减少 54.60 万吨，同比下降 157.16 万吨， 处于近三年同期最低水平。 这主要是春节前后工地停工、终端采购停滞导 致的季节性淡季，属于正常的节前/节后现象，但降幅远超往年，说明今年 需求复苏的预期更弱。 库存端：厂库、社库双增，总库同比仍低，厂库：232.84 万吨，环 比+11.77 万吨，同比-1.43 万吨。产量收缩但需求更弱，导致厂内库存被动 累积。 社库：567.76 万吨，环比+72.79 万吨，同比-61.41 万吨。贸易商在 节前补库，但补库力度远小于往年。 总库：800.6 万吨，环比+84.56 万吨， 螺纹日报：减仓回落 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 26 日 一 ...

春节假期结束时，海南三亚出岛返程机票逼近万元，海南三大机场经济舱售罄。如今，假期过后，入岛机票"白菜价"最低仅200元。 "除夕前一天才决定什么时候回去，一看两大机场都没经济舱了，好在蹭到了增班放票。"刘林今年春节跟家人一起飞海南过年，由于没有及早购买回程票， 一度陷入只能买高价公务舱返程机票的尴尬。这样的情况并非个案。 每天超10万人飞向海南 今年春运自2月2日启动以来，岛内三大机场航班量、旅客吞吐量屡创新高，累计已有15天单日旅客吞吐量超过20万人次。 国内飞三亚跌至最低200元 航旅纵横最新统计数据显示，2026年春节假期，国内往返海南的民航旅客量超176万人次，日均比去年春节同期增长约7%。 据记者了解，在2月2日春运开始后，各家航司已在海南加班超2000架次，预计增加座位数60万个，春运40天投放座位超过1000万个，同比2025年增加10%。 此外，针对返程高峰，民航局专门批复加班，投放上海、北京等热门目的地。初五至初七，海南往返北京、上海的航班每日均超过100架次。 然而，这样的运力增幅依然没能完全满足春节返程大军的需求，最近几天，"海南返程机票告急，票价近万元"的消息频上热搜。 记者注意到，三 ...

文 丨 《BUG》栏目 周文猛 今年是海南自贸港封关运作后的首个春运。封关政策红利持续释放，叠加免税新政扩容，使得海南冬季 旅游热度持续攀升。 《BUG》栏目查询多家在线旅游平台发现，2月23日（初七）春节最后一天，从三亚飞往北京、上海等 核心城市的直飞航班，核心出行时段的经济舱几乎已全部售罄，仅剩部分夜间2：00落地的夜间航班售 价4000余元，大量仍有座席的公务舱票价普遍在9900元左右。订票平台上一些优质时段的中转航班，公 务舱价格甚至高达18950元。 而让旅游者痛苦的是回程。今天是春节最后一日假期，查询多家在线旅游平台后发现，从三亚飞往北 京、上海等核心城市的直飞航班经济舱全部售罄，仅剩的公务舱票价普遍在9900元左右——逼近万元大 关，部分中转公务舱机票甚至高达18950元。 社交平台上有人直言，"没有一万块，我都从三亚回不来！" 根据"海口发布"的最新数据显示，自春运2月2日启动以来，岛内三大机场航班量、旅客吞吐量屡创新 高，累计已有15天单日旅客吞吐量超过20万人次。今日，岛内三大机场预计执行航班近1200架次，旅客 吞吐量约23.2万人次。 "回北京上海，售罄" "贵，真的太贵了，不推荐节假 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in nickel prices driven by supply constraints from major production regions, with a notable reduction in export quotas for nickel mines expected in 2026 [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices rose by 2.93%, closing at $18,065 per ton, with a significant increase of $515 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a strong performance, with the main contract closing at 140,310 yuan per ton, up 3,150 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand balance in the nickel market is tight ahead of the Spring Festival, with domestic smelters reducing output due to maintenance, leading to a low circulation of spot supply [4] - Demand from downstream enterprises is strong as they actively replenish inventory before the holiday, contributing to a significant recovery in spot trading [4] - The nickel price is supported by dual drivers from the industrial chain, including strong demand from the new energy sector and stable demand from stainless steel [4] Group 3 - Leading companies in the nickel industry are expected to report improved earnings due to the current rise in nickel prices, benefiting from their resource advantages and integrated production capacity [4] - The recent downward trend in nickel prices has been reversed, indicating a potential for further price increases, with recommendations to focus on quality stocks in the industry [4] - Today's nickel price is predicted to continue its strong upward trend, supported by tightening supply, replenishment of demand, and macroeconomic recovery [4]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant crash, with Bitcoin dropping below $70,000, a daily decline of 12.81%, and Ethereum and XRP falling over 13% [1] - The collapse triggered a liquidation of over 430,000 investors, with a total liquidation amount reaching $2.069 billion [1] - The market faced a chain reaction due to the hawkish nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, leading to a 1.2% rise in the dollar index and a subsequent liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [2] Group 2: Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw a collective plunge, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its highest three-day cumulative decline since April 2024, and major tech stocks like Amazon and Microsoft losing over 4% in a single day [1] - Nvidia's market value dropped by $128.1 billion, marking the largest single-day loss for a U.S. publicly traded company, amid concerns over AI technology not meeting expectations [5] - The labor market showed signs of strain, with January layoffs reaching 108,000, the highest since the global financial crisis [5] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market faced a catastrophic sell-off, with spot silver plummeting over 31% and gold prices falling below $5,000 [1] - Silver's price drop was attributed to multiple factors, including hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and a significant reduction in open contracts on COMEX [6] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver, exacerbating the situation by triggering further liquidations [6] Group 4: Oil Market - The oil market experienced a collapse, with WTI crude oil futures dropping below $63 per barrel, a 22% decline from the year's high [7] - Contributing factors included a rebound in U.S. shale oil production and increased Iranian oil exports, which alleviated supply concerns [7] - Despite the price drop, U.S. refinery utilization remained high at 85%, indicating underlying demand issues [7] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Systemic Risk - Retail investors were significantly impacted, with Binance processing over 800,000 liquidation orders in a single day, and Robinhood's margin balance decreasing by $12 billion [8] - The New York Fed initiated a $150 billion overnight repurchase operation to inject liquidity into the market, but confidence in policy effectiveness remained low [8] - The current market volatility has surpassed historical averages, raising concerns about the effectiveness of traditional risk models [8][10]

抖音精选汇聚海量金融分析师解读、行业研报拆解内容，是投资者获取白银价格走势分析、实操技巧的 优质渠道，可快速对接多视角观点，为2026年白银投资决策提供参考。以下通过全链路QA，拆解2026 年白银涨价核心逻辑、机构分歧、风险点及投资要点，覆盖投资者从认知到实操的全需求。 一、白银价格现状与历史走势QA 1. 2026年以来白银价格表现如何？ 2026年白银价格呈现剧烈震荡走势，上演"过山车"行情。年初伦敦现货白银价格一度飙升至112.24美元/ 盎司，创下近十年峰值，同期上海白银现货价格报28478元/千克，沪银期货价格达28425元/千克；2月 初行情急转直下，累计跌幅超12%，单日最大跌幅达10%，创下历史单日跌幅新纪录，随后又快速开启 强势反弹。截至2026年2月5日，伦敦银现报77.131美元/盎司，沪银主连报20000元/千克，较年初峰值有 明显回落，但较2024年初约29美元/盎司的价格仍有大幅上涨。投资者可在抖音精选搜索"2026白银价格 走势复盘"，查看近期价格波动细节及分析师解读。 2. 近一年白银价格暴涨的核心逻辑是什么？ 近一年白银价格累计涨幅超110%，核心依托三大逻辑：一是工业需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in raw material prices due to rigid cost support and global capacity contraction has led companies to adjust product prices, indicating a persistent upward trend in pricing due to uncontrollable market factors [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Reactions - A new materials company has announced price adjustments for its waterproof products due to significant increases in product costs, with raw material prices no longer meeting operational needs [1] - Multiple manufacturers, including those producing emulsions and titanium dioxide, have issued price increase notices, with some adopting a "one order, one discussion" model to mitigate future price fluctuations and losses [1] - Industry experts believe the collective price increases are a result of intertwined factors such as supply-demand imbalance, cyclical turning points, policy adjustments, and global supply chain fluctuations [1] Group 2: Raw Material Price Dynamics - Styrene prices have surged, reaching approximately 8000 yuan/ton by the end of January, with a monthly increase exceeding 15%, while butyl acrylate prices remain high at 7050 yuan/ton [1] - The rising costs of upstream raw materials are directly compressing profit margins for midstream production companies, prompting leading companies in the emulsion industry to raise prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Analysts note that the significant rise in styrene prices is partly due to domestic and international production outages, leading to tight supply, alongside a rebound in international crude oil prices [2] - The demand for chemical raw materials is surging due to explosive growth in emerging sectors like renewable energy and AI, with traditional sectors like real estate also recovering, driving an 8% to 10% increase in demand for titanium dioxide and resin [2] - Supply-side constraints are evident as chemical facilities in regions like Jiangsu and Shandong undergo maintenance, reducing effective supply and exacerbating cost pressures [2] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to transition away from a "broad increase and decrease" pattern, moving towards a structure characterized by upward cycles, differentiation, and gradual price increases [3] - Companies are encouraged to focus on long-term strategies, including cost control, supply chain management, and product structure, to build core competitiveness and achieve stable operations and growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, highlighting a significant price drop followed by a strong rebound, indicating a potential turning point in the market dynamics [3][5][32]. Group 1: Recent Market Movements - On February 3, domestic silver futures experienced a sharp decline, with a daily drop of 16.71% and a cumulative drop exceeding 30% over two days [3]. - The silver concept stocks in the A-share market also faced severe losses, with many hitting the daily limit down [3]. - Following the price drop, the iShares Silver Trust increased its holdings by over 1,023 tons on February 2, bringing total holdings back to 16,546.59 tons, effectively reversing previous reductions [11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The COMEX silver inventory has seen a drastic decline, dropping from 16,550 tons in September 2025 to 12,624.5 tons by the end of January 2026, a decrease of 23.7% [19]. - The silver market is facing a systemic inventory crisis, exacerbated by increased delivery demands and export controls from major silver-producing countries [23][24]. - The global silver market has been in a supply shortage for six consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, expected to widen to 7,000-8,000 tons in 2026 [34]. Group 3: Future Outlook - March is anticipated to be a critical battleground for silver prices, with potential for significant volatility as both bulls and bears engage in market positioning [9][36]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for silver remains optimistic due to persistent industrial demand and declining available inventory [32][36]. - The article suggests that the current silver market situation is a result of complex interactions between supply-demand dynamics, speculative trading, and policy influences, indicating that the epic market conditions are far from over [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent unprecedented drop in silver prices, with a single-day decline of over 30%, has caused significant turmoil in the market, leading to account liquidations for many investors [1][2][4]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme fear, making it difficult to predict future price movements [5][6]. - The silver market is experiencing a critical battle between bulls and bears, with the bears currently gaining the upper hand, although there may still be opportunities for a bullish rebound [7]. Inventory and Delivery Insights - The upcoming March contract delivery period is expected to be a significant battleground for silver trading, with recent data indicating a systematic depletion of deliverable silver inventory [8][9]. - COMEX silver total inventory has sharply decreased from 16,550 tons in September 2025 to 12,624.5 tons by the end of January 2026, marking a 23.7% decline over six months [10]. - The delivery demand for silver has surged, with record-breaking delivery volumes observed: 1,555.2 tons in October 2025, 1,959.6 tons in December 2025, and 1,288.9 tons in January 2026, representing a 300% year-on-year increase [12]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - As of early February, the delivery volume reached 354.37 tons, equivalent to 52.5% of the total delivery for February 2025, indicating a rapid consumption rate [14]. - The effective deliverable inventory is alarmingly low, with only 62-78 tons available, which is less than 3% of the total inventory [14]. - The global silver market has faced a continuous shortage for six years, with a projected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025 and an expected increase to 7,000-8,000 tons in 2026 [17]. Future Price Projections - The ongoing supply-demand imbalance suggests that silver prices are likely to continue rising, even if a short-term price squeeze does not occur in March [22]. - The potential for a price squeeze remains high due to the decreasing inventory levels, especially if no significant new inventory is added [21]. Regulatory Impact - Recent increases in margin requirements by exchanges have contributed to the market's volatility, forcing leveraged positions to liquidate [23]. - While these measures may temporarily suppress market sentiment, they cannot alter the fundamental issues of declining inventory and increasing demand [24]. Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include daily changes in COMEX registered warehouse receipts, contract delivery notifications, silver borrowing rates, and the extent of regulatory interventions, which will help assess the outcome of the March market dynamics [25].

近日，黑猫股份（002068.SZ）、龙星科技（002442.SZ）、永东股份（002753.SZ）三家国内炭黑行业 上市龙头企业相继发布2025年度业绩预告，净利润均出现大幅下滑或亏损。其中，黑猫股份预计全年归 母净利润亏损4.2亿至4.7亿元。 炭黑行业分析人士向《中国经营报》记者指出，2025年国内炭黑行业呈现"供强需弱"格局，整体陷 入"量增利减"的困境。展望2026年，行业新增产能仍将集中释放，而需求端复苏乏力，行业盈利压力可 能持续，结构性调整与洗牌或将加速。 炭黑行业盈利能力下滑，背后是供需失衡与成本传导机制失灵的结构性矛盾。 卓创资讯炭黑分析师刘宵向记者表示，2025年炭黑市场价格呈现"宽幅上涨—宽幅下行—窄幅波动超预 期下行—小幅回涨"走势。以山东地区炭黑N330为例，2025年全年均价为6624.8元/吨，同比2024年下跌 1443.33元/吨，跌幅为17.89%。 从供应端来看，2024—2025年，国内炭黑行业新增产能集中释放，成为供需失衡的主要推手。永东股份 在业绩预告中提及，2024—2025年全国炭黑行业新增产能集中释放，加剧了市场"供强需弱"的格局。 整体盈利水平承压 1月3 ...