由于母猪产能去化，生猪及猪肉供应减少，2025年四季度以来白条猪肉价格震荡走高，且一直持续至2026年1月份。展望2 月份猪肉市场，基本面供需双减的背景下，2月份白条猪肉价格或先涨后跌，均价环比上涨。 2025年白条猪肉价格在10月份触及低点后开启反弹，虽然11月呈现缓跌状态，但12月中下旬猪肉价格强势走高，反弹走势 延续至2026年1月份。根据卓创资讯数据监测，截止到2026年1月26日，1月全国白条猪肉市场月度平均成交价为16.56元／ 公斤，较2025年12月份上涨。 展望2月份，预计白条猪肉价格或先涨后跌，均价或环比上涨 从供应端来看，2025年4月份能繁母猪存栏量仍处于下降走势，因此2月份出栏量或减少，且大猪需求或继续增加，带动部 分养殖场压栏增重心态，或减少部分供应增幅。 分析来看，猪肉价格走高的主要是因为能繁母猪存栏量下降后，供应端兑现出栏量缩减叠加养殖端压栏增重，且同期需求 出现提升。 具体来看，从农业农村部监测能繁母猪数量可以看出，从2025年3月能繁母猪存栏量下降，且下降幅度较大，由4066万头降 至4039万头。根据生猪生长周期推算，2026年1月份生猪出栏量是2025年3月能繁母猪存栏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional seasonal characteristics of pork consumption are weakening, with the upcoming festive season not showing significant demand due to persistently low market prices [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The pork market is entering a festive consumption peak, but the characteristics of the traditional pre-Spring Festival peak may not be evident this year [1] - As of November 27, the national average pork price was 15.18 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.89% but a year-on-year decrease of 28.96% [1] - The highest price recorded in November was 15.76 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 14.74 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noted shift in consumer dietary structure and consumption concepts, leading to a gradual decline in traditional peak consumption periods such as "Golden September and Silver October" and winter sausage and cured meat production [1] - Analysts indicate that the seasonal characteristics of pork consumption are expected to further weaken by 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of imported frozen pork prices in China is showing a slight decline as of October 2025, primarily due to the continuous decrease in domestic fresh and frozen pork prices [1][3]. Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the average transaction price for imported pork products is as follows: - Foreleg: 17,416.67 RMB/ton, down 1.88% from the beginning of the month - Neck bone: 9,500 RMB/ton, unchanged - Ribs: 33,287.18 RMB/ton, down 2.21% - Pig heads: 10,600 RMB/ton, down 5.50% [1][3]. Domestic Pork Prices - Domestic fresh pork prices have rapidly declined, with the price of fresh No. 2 and No. 4 pork dropping to 17.38 RMB/kg by mid-October, reflecting decreases of 7.33% and 7.54% respectively from the start of the month. - By late October, the average transaction prices were: - Fresh No. 2 pork: 17.71 RMB/kg, down 5.56% - Fresh No. 4 pork: 17.75 RMB/kg, down 5.54% - Frozen No. 2 pork: 17.72 RMB/kg, down 5.03% - Frozen No. 4 pork: 17.76 RMB/kg, down 5.30% [3]. Market Dynamics - The price advantage of imported products is diminishing, leading to a cautious purchasing approach from downstream customers, who are reducing their procurement of imported products. - The sales speed of imported frozen pork is slowing down, with most imported pork products experiencing price declines. However, limited port inventory and the intention of importers to maintain prices have resulted in smaller price drops compared to domestic pork [3][5]. Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, the import volume of pork and pork by-products is expected to be limited, with small port inventories and manageable sales pressure for importers. - The demand during the peak consumption season in November and December may lead to a slight rebound in domestic pork prices, but overall levels are expected to remain low, indicating weak purchasing intentions for imported frozen products [5][6]. - It is anticipated that imported pork prices will continue to decline in November and December, but the extent of the decline is expected to be limited [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that pig prices are expected to stop declining and begin to rise in the later part of the fourth quarter, with narrow fluctuations anticipated [1] Production Insights - Since the second quarter, the number of newborn piglets has increased, leading to a peak in pig slaughter volume in the fourth quarter [1] - The previous backlog of large pigs is being cleared, and secondary fattening has decreased, resulting in a stable slaughter rhythm [1] - The increase in pork supply is expected to be lower than the increase in slaughter volume [1] Consumption Factors - With the drop in temperatures, southern regions are expected to start processing cured meat, which will boost pork consumption [1] Trade Dynamics - Due to the implementation of temporary anti-dumping measures on imported pork and pork by-products from the European Union, the volume of pork imports is likely to decline further [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pork market in September is likely to remain in a state of oversupply, leading to continued weak prices [3] - After the Spring Festival, the average transaction price of white strip pork in August was 17.72 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 4.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.10%, primarily due to oversupply [1] - The supply side shows that most large-scale farms are still actively selling, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is more cautious, indicating a potentially sufficient pork supply [1][3] Group 2 - On the demand side, the start of school in September has slightly boosted orders from wholesale markets, supermarkets, and direct sales stores, but this increase is not enough to match the supply growth [1] - The seasonal index indicates a seasonal decline in demand in September, which is unfavorable for pork prices [2]