中辉能化观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出现权力真空， 中东地缘升温，短期对油价起到支撑；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | 原油 | 季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页 | | | | 岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 油价受地缘扰动，短线反弹，中长期承压。中长期锚定成本端原油，油价 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 向下，液化气走弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率 | | ★ | 升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 基差走强，装置检修增加，上中游转为累库，关注市场情绪变动。停车比 | | L | 例上升至至 空头反弹 | 13%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2026年1月9日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前自 | 张跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3320 | 3320 | 0 | 193 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3180 | 30 | 83 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3300 | 0 | 173 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3168 | 3111 | 57 | 152 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3213 | 3156 | 57 | 107 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3127 | 3082 | 45 | 193 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | -10 | 元/旺 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | -90 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260109 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明显 | 8 | | PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260109 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：关注地缘扰动 | 21 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘上行，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：轻仓试多02做交割；04空单持 ...

3.1 众多因素支撑黄金长牛 美联储从 2024 年 9 月开始降息，截至目前已经降息 6 次，累计 175 个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔即将卸任，特朗普已经部分掌控了美联储人事，特别是美联 储理事的任命，且都属于鸽派阵营。在此背景下，2026 年即将上任的新任美联储主席，令押注降息延续的投资者充满期待。 | 货币政策方面 | | --- | | 机构名称 | 预测目标 | 时间框架 | | --- | --- | --- | | 高盛 | 4900 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年 12月 | | 瑞银 | 4500美元/盎司 | 2026年中期 | | 摩根大通 | 5055 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年第四季度 | | 美国银行 | 5000 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年 | | 法业银行 | 5000美元/盎司 | 2026 年底 | | 中令公司 | 突破 5000 美元 / 盎司 | 2026年 | 综合来看，2026 年黄金受降息加速、美债和美元信用的影响，黄金明年下半年的目标看向 5000~5200 美元。 具体来看，2026 年上半年可能会降息两次，即 3 月和 6 月各降息 25 个基点。受 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

近日，"委内瑞拉局势重击山东地炼"的说法在社交媒体兴起，记者调查发现，沥青价格出现了不同程度 的增长。中国石油大学（华东）经济管理学院、山东省能源经济管理研究中心负责人高新伟表示，地缘 冲突对相关炼化产业虽有影响，但并非"致命伤"。 "最近两天，沥青每吨涨了近100元。"1月6日，某地沥青供销商对以购买者身份咨询的齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹 点记者坦言。 据该供销商提供的报价，目前70/吨，90/吨。而就在几天前，两种沥青的价格还停留在2900元/吨、2950 元/吨。 据该供销商回忆，此次涨价是从1月4日开始，涨幅在300元左右。 记者查阅相关石化公示价格显示，2025年12月底，70#沥青的价格维持在2900元/吨。1月7日，70#沥青 价格为3050元/吨，同样出现涨价的状况。 这场始于今年年初的价格波动，其"震源"远在万里之外的南美。 据新华社消息，美方近期对委内瑞拉采取的大规模军事及制裁措施，已导致该国原油出口链条接近停 滞。截至1月5日，由于石油封锁压力，目前滞留在海上无法离港的委内瑞拉原油总量已超过1700万桶。 作为全球原油版图中的重要一环，委内瑞拉的供应动荡直接诱发了重质原油市场的连锁反应。 委内瑞拉 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 供给过剩再度主导市场，油价走弱。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出现权力 真空，中东地缘升温，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | 原油 | 季叠加 谨慎看空 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原 | | ★ | | 油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页 | | | | 岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | LPG | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 短期预期主导行情走势，关注装置变动节奏。停车比例上升至至 12%，LL | | L | 空头反弹 | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 更新时间：2026年01月07日08时19分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹热卷产量回升 ，五大品种总产量环比上升，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所下降，热卷的表观需求继续回 升，五大品种表观需求整体方。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且市场整体处于消费淡季，钢厂产量仍有可能延续下降的趋势 。近期煤焦期价大幅反弹， 对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来，宏观面信心增强，股市强势上破提振市场信心， 期 价有望维持震荡走势。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间 。 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易，空仓者不建议追涨杀跌，以震荡思路对待 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3111 | | 7 0.23% | -23 | -0.73% | | 期现货价格 | ...

对伊威胁叠加市场偏暖情绪下能化板块今 日偏强，但后续仍建议品种间分化对待。 行情综述： 油：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为原油边缘生 产国，约 1%的产量占比与 50-80 万桶/日的日均出口对全球原油供给 影响不大，并且委内瑞拉也没有 6 月以伊冲突中霍尔木兹海峡作为全 球原油关键航道的地理条件。美对委袭击事件落地后市场对加勒比地 缘担忧的靴子落地，或回归一季度过剩压力带来的下行驱动。 化工：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响出现重大 逻辑影响，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向 上驱动。沥青可作为当下的重点多头品种。而前期龙头品种 PX-PTA 在下游终端接受度较低带来短期负反馈下开启日线级别回调，短期观 望等待回调结束后下一阶段多单进场机会。苯乙烯面临全产业链高库 存压力，下游 3S 利润快速下降，一、二月累库速率或超预期，若近 期出口商谈消息带来的 1 月出口增量被证伪，那么苯乙烯未来极高的 港口库存带来的胀库压力叠加终端需求疲软下游的负反馈螺旋将驱 动苯乙烯价格回落。可作为当前阶段重点关注的空头品种。 （一）原油： 逻辑：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：A 股首个交易日迎"开门红" 【重点行情回顾】前一交易日，国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前，钯金涨 8.88%，铂金涨 6.48%，沪金、沪银均涨超 1%。新能源材料多数上涨，碳酸锂涨 7.74%。基 本金属全部上涨，沪铝涨 3.98%。国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，伦敦基本金属全线上涨；美油 主力合约收涨 1.8%，报 58.35 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 1.76%，报 61.82 美元/桶。 【市场资讯】1）证监会召开资本市场财务造假综合惩防体系跨部门工作推进座谈会。会议 认为，资本市场财务造假综合惩防体系建设已进入深化落实的关键阶段，必须坚持问题导 向和系统思维打好综合惩防"组合拳"。2）美国总统特朗普再对印度发出"加税"威胁。特朗 普表示，如果新德里不满足华盛顿限制购买俄罗斯石油的要求，美国可能会提高对印度的 关税。3）2026 年 FOMC 票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，目前美国利率水平 可能已接近对经济既不产生刺激、也不形成抑制的"中性利率"，未来美联储政策走向将取 决于最新经济数据。4）美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 制造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降 ...