1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - With the supply pressure from the rubber tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events boosting synthetic rubber, the subsequent rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict between the United States and Iran [1]. Polyolefins - The pricing power returns to hedging merchants, the basis strengthens, and the transaction volume increases. PP and PE continue to see a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. PP is destocking, while PE inventory is accumulating. In April, it is expected that the spot market will tighten and the basis will strengthen, driven by the "strong cost + reduced supply" logic [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The cost - end support has weakened, but the downside space is expected to be limited. It is generally viewed as oscillating, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1,150 - 1,250. Short positions can be held. - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased, the demand is sluggish, the cost support has weakened, and there is still inventory - removal pressure. It is also viewed as oscillating. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has generally declined. The market is affected by the weakening of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about high - price demand suppression. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, but the supply shortage still provides fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the futures are weakly oscillating, the supply has increased slightly, the inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand increment is less than expected. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. - For PVC, the futures have fallen significantly, the export demand is poor, the market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a strong bottom support. It may be weakly adjusted in the short term [5]. Urea - The urea futures are weakly oscillating, the spot price is stable, the supply has decreased slightly, the inventory is at a relatively low level, but the supply is still loose. The demand is in a transition period, and the market lacks clear upward or downward drivers. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, with the main contract focusing on the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading theme is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillating pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. Attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with a short - term tight - balance supply - demand situation. The supply side is expected to see an increase in far - month imports, while the demand side is generally positive, but the MTO profit is weakening. Two major risks need to be watched: geopolitical easing and continuous compression of MTO profit [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand is expected to improve, and the short - term price may fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high. - For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening slightly, but the supply - demand situation is still tight. The short - term absolute price fluctuates with the oil price, and the same strategy as for pure benzene is recommended [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand is weak in the short term, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the price has support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the oil price trend. - For PTA, the short - term self - driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. The same strategy as for PX is recommended. - For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the price has upward momentum. However, attention should be paid to the risk of a pull - back. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weakening, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The same strategy as for PX is recommended, and the PF processing margin can be expanded at a low level below 800. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and the processing margin is expected to be strong. The PR unilateral strategy is the same as for PTA, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to be strong [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of most natural rubber varieties have declined slightly, with the Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropping 0.31%, and the Thai standard mixed rubber price falling 0.63%. The basis of full - latex has increased, and the non - standard price difference has also increased [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 4.70%, the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8.44%, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 120.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand in January increased by 11.09%, while that in Indonesia and India decreased. The tire export volume in February decreased by 12.40%, and the natural rubber import volume decreased by 28.46%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 0.85%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 9.23% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined, with the L2605 closing price dropping 2.16%. The L59 spread, PP59 spread, and LP05 spread have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Data**: The PE device operating rate has decreased by 4.79%, the downstream weighted operating rate has increased by 5.75%. The PE enterprise inventory has increased by 3.45%, and the social inventory has decreased by 6.58%. The PP enterprise inventory has decreased by 16.19%, and the trader inventory has decreased by 8.18% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash are stable. The glass 2605 contract has dropped 2.02%, and the soda ash 2605 contract has dropped 2.49%. The 05 basis of glass and soda ash has increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 5.22%, and the weekly production has decreased by 5.22%. The float - glass daily melting volume has decreased by 0.62%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume has decreased by 2.28%. The glass factory inventory has decreased by 1.09%, and the soda ash factory inventory has decreased by 0.10% [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The main LPG contract PG2605 has dropped 4.04%, and the PG05 - 06 and PG05 - 07 spreads have decreased. The South China spot price has decreased by 0.28%, and the deliverable spot price has decreased by 1.24% [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio has decreased by 4.34%, the port inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the port storage capacity ratio has increased by 0.67%. The upstream - main refinery operating rate has decreased by 3.54%, and the downstream - PDH operating rate has decreased by 3.09% [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda has decreased by 4.3%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - method PVC has decreased by 3.9%. The SH2605 and V2605 contracts have also declined [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate has increased by 0.8%, and the PVC total operating rate has increased by 1.0%. The alumina industry operating rate has increased by 0.1%, and the Longzhong sample PVC pipe operating rate has increased by 5.1% [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The main contract has dropped 2.71%. The 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 spreads have changed [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production has decreased by 0.36%, the production capacity utilization rate has decreased by 4.17%, and the factory - warehouse inventory has decreased by 13.40% [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude has dropped 3.18%, WTI crude has dropped 1.46%, and SC crude has dropped 1.80%. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads have increased [7]. - **Refined Oil Products**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have all declined. The refined - oil cracking spreads in the United States, Europe, and Singapore have also decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices have declined, with the MA2605 closing price dropping 2.71%. The MA59 spread has decreased by 3.90%, and the MTO05盘面 profit has increased by 44.94% [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The methanol enterprise inventory has decreased by 10.71%, the port inventory has decreased by 8.42%, and the social inventory has decreased by 9.05%. The upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate has increased by 1.74%, and the downstream - external - procurement MTO device operating rate has increased by 10.42% [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude and WTI crude have changed. The price of pure benzene and styrene has declined. The EB05 - BZ05 spread has increased by 4.6% [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 3.3%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased by 4.6%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate has increased by 6.4%, and the styrene operating rate has decreased by 0.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed. The prices of PTA, MEG, and polyester products have also fluctuated [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The MEG port inventory has increased by 3.5%, and the arrival expectation has decreased by 33.3%. The Asian PX operating rate has decreased by 2.8%, and the PTA operating rate has increased by 3.6% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian producing areas is at a low level throughout the year, and the shortage is extreme. The price of glue water has been continuously pushed up in the short term. The tapping rhythm in Yunnan, China, is normal, but the amount of new rubber in the initial stage is limited, and the global supply shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term. The upstream cost supports stock prices. However, as time goes by, the supply pressure will gradually appear. On the demand side, there is still moderate restocking imagination for some agents of un - price - increased brands at the end of the month, and the overall shipment is still supported to a certain extent. However, the terminal demand has no obvious positive guidance, and the market continues to digest inventory. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US - Iran conflict [1]. Crude Oil Industry - The control of the Strait of Hormuz and the security of the energy supply chain have not been alleviated. With the participation of the Houthi armed forces, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. The main line of oil prices is geopolitical support + policy suppression. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there is substantial progress in the negotiation and whether the Mandeb Strait will be blocked. If the situation continues to deteriorate or there are new variables, the crude oil supply will be in a substantial shortage in the near future, and the crude oil still has the momentum to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the suppression of global inflation and the economy by high oil prices, the acceleration of energy substitution, and the continuous uncertainty brought about by geopolitical conflicts [2]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures opened higher and fell slightly at the end of the session. The spot was purchased on demand. The core driver of the current market comes from the supply gap caused by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The downstream demand is resilient, and the valuation is low globally. The export volume has increased, and the domestic and foreign prices have risen synchronously. On the supply side, the profit of coal - to - methanol remains good, but there are slightly more unexpected overhauls recently. In the port market, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has escalated again, and there are doubts about the recovery of shipping capacity. The port inventory is expected to decline significantly for the 05 contract. On the demand side, the downstream olefins are driven by the rising oil price, the profit of the inland coal - integrated plant has strengthened, and the demand for MTO in the port also has a warming expectation. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved, but in a high - volatility market environment, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of sharp unilateral fluctuations and the callback risk brought about by the easing of the geopolitical situation [9]. Urea Industry - On the 30th, the urea futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price remained stable. Some urea plants were shut down briefly this week, and the supply decreased slightly. Driven by the previous buying sentiment, the urea inventory was at a relatively low level, which supported the price. However, the supply pattern was still loose, and the daily output of the industry was at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons. Coupled with the continuous release of reserve supplies, the market supply was still abundant. On the demand side, the agricultural demand entered the connection gap period and gradually weakened. The industrial downstream procurement was mostly cautious and purchased on demand. The overall demand was relatively flat. The market lacked a clear driving force for rise or fall, and it was expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract should focus on the range of 1,830 - 1,900, and pay attention to the progress of downstream demand and policy dynamics [4]. Caustic Soda and PVC Industry - **Caustic Soda**: On the 30th, the caustic soda futures fell sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The supply of caustic soda increased slightly this week, the number of overhaul devices was small, the industry's operating rate increased, and the profit increased significantly. The chlor - alkali enterprises actively increased the device load, and the inventory accumulated. The price of liquid chlorine also rose synchronously. The previous bullish sentiment in exports ebbed, which led to a sharp correction in the market, and negative sentiment gradually emerged. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, and the non - aluminum demand has improved, but the overall supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is still weak. After the sentiment ebbs, the market has declined. Without other driving factors, it is expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [5]. - **PVC**: On the 30th, the PVC futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market maintained a weak range oscillation. There is no demand gap in Asia, especially in the Asian region. Affected by the large number of low - price exports in the early stage and the wait - and - see sentiment of foreign customers towards high prices, the recent export demand has been poor. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market has not been prominent. The non - cost - driven price increase resistance caused by the geopolitical influence in the early stage is relatively large, and the high - price sales of spot goods are difficult. The chemical sentiment has faded, and the PVC price has adjusted accordingly. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC have improved slightly, and the cost side has a large price increase. The price bottom has strong support. Affected by the ebb of the chemical commodity sentiment, it may be weakly adjusted in the short term. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual shutdown rhythm of the devices [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is mainly stable, and the transaction is average. On the supply side, many production lines were shut down for overhaul last week, and the overall supply decreased slightly. It is expected that the production lines will resume this week, and the load will increase. On the demand side, the downstream still purchases on a rigid - demand basis. The float glass is continuously reducing production capacity, and many production lines of photovoltaic glass were shut down last week, showing an overall weak trend. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is basically the same as the previous period, and the de - stocking intensity has weakened. In terms of cost and profit, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) has decreased, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method has been slightly adjusted. As the spring plowing gradually ends, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is strengthened. At the same time, with the strong support of the current spot cost, it is expected that the soda ash will generally oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and take profit on the 5 - 9 reverse spread [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market has average trading, and the spot price is mainly stable. On the supply side, a 600 - ton production line in Guizhou was shut down over the weekend, and it is expected that there will still be production lines for cold repair this week, and the output will continue to decline. On the demand side, the demand for deep - processing and low - e glass remains weak, and the downstream purchases as needed. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is high year - on - year, and the enterprises have great pressure to de - stock. The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. At the same time, the glass is currently close to par, and the support of FG605 at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of about 1,030 is strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the future. If there is no improvement in downstream demand or de - stocking intensity, the price may decline further. Attention can be paid to the inventory and warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The start - up of some Asian refineries has been substantially affected, the load of some domestic and foreign refineries has decreased, and combined with the planned overhaul of some devices, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The prices of downstream products have risen actively, and the load has been maintained, so the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. It is reported that the United States intends to negotiate with Iran, but Iran is still tough, and it is expected that there will still be repetitions. The oil price fluctuates greatly at a high level. In the short term, pure benzene may fluctuate with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the spread between EB05 and BZ05 (currently 1,727) when it is high [7]. - **Styrene**: A set of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul has been postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng has restarted. Currently, the overall supply is maintained. On the demand side, although the downstream load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, and PS factories plan to reduce the load, and the high - price procurement is weak. The supply - demand of styrene has weakened month - on - month, but with the previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene is still tight. Recently, due to the reduction of supply caused by the reduction of refinery load, the price of raw material ethylene has risen sharply, and the profit of styrene has been continuously compressed. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene fluctuates with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is the same as for pure benzene [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: As the Strait blockade time prolongs, the risk of raw material supply interruption for PX factories in Asia is increasing. Some refineries in other Asian countries have continued to reduce their loads, but some domestic devices have postponed their overhauls due to sufficient raw materials. Relatively speaking, the risk of supply interruption in China is slightly smaller. The downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity. In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, but the overall supply - demand expectation of PX in April is tight. Coupled with the current low valuation and the continuous geopolitical situation, the PX price still has support. Strategically, it is recommended to go long at a low position and pay attention to the oil price trend [11]. - **PTA**: Although the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on Asian PX factories, the overall load of PTA has been maintained. However, affected by the high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales have been poor. In April, PTA is expected to have an inventory build - up, and the basis has been weak recently. The downstream cost transmission is not smooth, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity, and the demand side may drag down the raw materials. Overall, PTA has limited self - driving force in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. Strategically, it is the same as for PX, and attention should be paid to the oil price trend [11]. - **MEG**: In the second quarter, the impact of the Middle East situation on ethylene glycol will continue to ferment, and the cost support of ethylene glycol is still strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the influence of the Middle East conflict, the main contradiction in the fundamentals in the second quarter is the significant decline in the domestic and foreign ethylene glycol supply. Many oil - based ethylene glycol devices have reduced their loads, and the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased significantly in the second quarter. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the transportation of goods from Iran, Kuwait, and the east coast of Saudi Arabia, so the import volume is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the port inventory will enter the de - stocking channel. The de - stocking amplitude of ethylene glycol social inventory in the second quarter is considerable. Driven by the Middle East situation, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise in the second quarter. Strategically, before the restoration of oil transportation in the Middle East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is recommended to buy EG call options lightly at a low position [11]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand of short - fiber has weakened month - on - month due to the increase in supply. The Middle East situation is repeated, the oil price remains high, the terminal is reluctant to follow the price increase, and the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber market is in a tug - of - war. The market is cautious and wait - and - see at a high level, and some short - fiber factories and downstream have the intention to moderately reduce production. In the short term, the short - fiber has weak self - driving force and mainly fluctuates with the raw materials. Attention should be paid to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission. Strategically, it is the same as for PX; when the PF disk processing fee is below 800, it is recommended to expand the spread [11]. - **Bottle - chip**: In April, with the warming of the weather and the limited long - term procurement of the downstream at the end of the first quarter this year, the demand is expected to increase in April. It is expected that there will be high - price rigid - demand restocking or concentrated low - price procurement of bottle - chips by the downstream. At the same time, affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the supply of polyester raw materials is in short supply, and it is expected that the cost of crude oil and polyester raw materials will remain high in April, and the supply of bottle - chips is limited. Therefore, the supply - demand of bottle - chips in April is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PR is the same as for PTA; it is expected that the processing fee of the PR main contract disk will be strong, and it is recommended to buy PR call options lightly at a low position [11]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP futures fell on the 30th. The upstream price was inverted, the market was priced by futures - spot traders, and the basis strengthened slightly passively. The trading on Monday was generally neutral. LLDPE and PP continue to have a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. PP is de - stocking, and PE inventory is accumulating. Dynamically, the supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, expected decline in imports, and increase in exports makes the end - of - contract inventory of the 05 contract at a low level. Geopolitical premium and cost support, as well as the reduction in the supply side, still dominate. In April, refineries have shifted from preventive production cuts to substantial production cuts, and raw material interruption and high - price procurement have pushed up costs. The domestic device overhauls and the contraction of overseas imports have further solidified the already tight supply pattern. The core is the underlying logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" that dominates the pricing power. It is expected that the spot will tighten and the basis will strengthen in April [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 0.30% to 16,350 yuan/ton; the full - latex basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.64% to 15,800 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference increased by 8.64% to - 740 yuan/ton; the FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 1.28% to 20.50 Thai baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue water in the international market increased by 2.58% to 79.50; the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 1.49% to 13,600 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue water in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 2.07% to 14,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.61% to - 745 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.94% to 770 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 44.44% to - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 11.09% to 549.00 (unit not specified); Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161.10 (ten tons); India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108.10; in December, China's production decreased by 84.50 to 51.20; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased slightly to 78.24%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires for automobiles increased slightly to 70.75%; in December, the domestic tire production increased by 4.65% to 10,656.3; in February, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 12.40% to 5,607.0 (ten thousand pieces); in February, the total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 28.46% to 46.15; in February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 25.00% to 60.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, with no change from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week. Demand remained low. The polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, at a high level. The silicon wafer production was at a loss, while the battery cell production was profitable, and the component production was also profitable. The silicone inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of 2,430 yuan/ton, an overall operating rate of 68.6%, unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 44,900 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 2,487 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi had a freight and profit of 623.12 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate was 59.5%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 670 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous week. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,390 - 8,570 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for March was predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.38GW, a 3.39% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 269,800 tons, a 2.42% decrease from the previous week. The silicon wafer production was at a loss. The production schedule for March was 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase from the previous week, and the production was profitable. The production schedule for March was 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for March was 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory was 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. The component production was profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income was - 810 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of N - type dense material was 38,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase, while the demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to increase in the short - term and decline in the medium - term. Overall demand showed a continuous decline. Cost support remained stable. The polysilicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,475 - 37,625 [8]. Overall Logic - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [11]. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint [3][5][7] - Industrial silicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview [14] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of decline compared to the previous values. Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. Inventory data showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. Production and operating rate data also showed different changes [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview [16] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of increase or remained unchanged compared to the previous values. Prices and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. showed different trends, and inventory data also changed [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends [18] - Showed the historical trends of the main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon [19]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory [21] - Presented the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the registered warrant volume [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends [25] - Showed the historical trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of sample enterprises [26][27][28]. 7. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends [30] - Presented the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends [33] - Showed the historical cost trends of 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the cost differences between them [34][35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [37] - Analyzed the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, and actual consumption [38]. 10. Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [40] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [41]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - DMC Price and Production Trends [43] - Showed the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly production, and price [44]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Downstream Price Trends [45] - Presented the historical price trends of 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [46][47][48]. 13. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Import - Export and Inventory Trends [49] - Showed the historical trends of DMC monthly import, export, and inventory [50][52]. 14. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation [54] - Presented the historical trends of scrap aluminum recycling, scrap aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, Chinese unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [55]. 15. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends [57] - Showed the historical trends of monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [58]. 16. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels) [60] - Presented the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [61]. 17. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends [64] - Showed the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [65]. 18. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [67] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [68]. 19. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends [70] - Presented the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - silicon wafers [71]. 20. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends [73] - Showed the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [74]. 21. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends [76] - Presented the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component production, and component export [77]. 22. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends [79] - Showed the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [80]. 23. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm) [82] - Showed the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. 24. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends [83] - Presented the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, distributed photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [84]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The real - world and expected scenarios are in a state of game, leading to a differentiated performance in the sector. The cost side disturbances may be repeated, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply - side disturbances. The bullish expectations for the peak season are cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - world side remains to be verified. If the geopolitical conflict persists, price support will be strong; if it eases, prices may face a correction [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The ongoing US - Iran conflict and the tight liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures and spot prices of iron ore. However, the overall de - stocking is difficult to achieve due to the loose supply - demand situation, which suppresses the upside valuation of prices. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillatory performance. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and recent fluctuations may increase [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term arrival of scrap steel remains stable overall, and the demand from long - process steelmaking is slowly recovering. The fundamentals continue to be in a weak equilibrium, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, and the resumption of iron - making production may be faster. There is still support from the spot cost side. After the first round of spot price increase is implemented, it is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the cost side of coking coal [3][11] - **Coking Coal**: The trading logic of coking coal futures is shifting from energy substitution to warehouse - receipt delivery. With the decline in restocking demand, continuous import pressure, and the approaching delivery of the main contract, the futures price may be under pressure. However, geopolitical disturbances will still support the futures price, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectations of rising manganese ore import costs and electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products are difficult to disprove. However, considering the loose supply - demand situation, high inventory, and difficult cost transfer in the manganese - silicon market, there is still a risk of correction in the medium - to - long - term valuation above the cost level [3][14][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the expectation of increasing electricity costs for high - energy - consuming products is difficult to disprove. However, the problem of over - capacity in the silicon - iron industry is serious. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand relationship. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of correction when the futures valuation is significantly higher than the comprehensive cost of manufacturers [6][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand situation is still in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][14] 3.5 Steel - The cost performance is differentiated, and the futures price operates in an oscillatory manner. The spot transaction has improved, the steel mill profitability has increased, and the production is gradually returning to normal. The downstream demand is slowly releasing, and the inventory is decreasing, but the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The impact of the decline in Iranian steel supply is limited in the short term. The futures price still has downward pressure, but cost - side disturbances may be repeated [8] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 30, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index increased by 0.96%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.33% on that day, decreased by 1.20% in the past 5 days, increased by 6.47% in the past month, and increased by 2.87% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week, and the demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The industry is expected to be bearish, and the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply last week was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week, and the March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 27, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase week - on - week; the sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease week - on - week; the main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule increased, remaining at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week. The March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month [9]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends in the short and medium - term, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 27, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease week - on - week, at a high level in the same period of history, which is bearish [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to increase. The demand shows a short - term increase and a medium - term callback. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous values. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged. The inventory showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable. The inventory decreased, and the export volume increased [16]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: The report presents the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon over a long - term period [18]. - Industrial silicon inventory: It shows the inventory trends of different regions and types of industrial silicon over a long - term period, including delivery warehouses and ports, and sample enterprises [21]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: It shows the trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises in different regions over a long - term period [25]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends: It shows the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas over a long - term period [30]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: It shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan over a long - term period [33]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables: It shows the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [37][40]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products of organic silicon over a long - term period [43]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends of aluminum alloy over a long - term period [55]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components over a long - term period [65]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price, import - export, and production trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand over a long - term period [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component cost - profit trends: It shows the cost and profit trends of components such as silicon material, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [83]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations over a long - term period [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals show a stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [10]. - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina raw materials is sufficient, the theoretical smelting profit is good, and the production enthusiasm is high. The domestic operating capacity is approaching the "ceiling", and the supply will maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the aluminum processing industry is expected to continue to grow. The inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and the inventory inflection point is expected to be confirmed. [7] - **Alumina**: The raw material supply from Guinea is stable, but the ore price remains firm due to shipping pressure, providing cost support. The domestic supply is in a relatively high state, and the demand from domestic electrolytic aluminum production is stable at a high level, while overseas demand may be gradually released, increasing export demand. [8] - **Cast Aluminum**: The high price of overseas scrap aluminum and freight costs have led to a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The production of cast aluminum plants is restricted by raw material supply and cost pressure. With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand in the aluminum alloy consumption field is expected to improve, and there may be restocking demand. [10] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of March 27, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 23,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% from March 20; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 3,254.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.39% from March 20. The alumina futures price was 2,883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from March 20. The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 22,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from March 20. [13][17] - **Ratio and Spread**: As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.27, a decrease of 0.57 from March 20. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was - 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 530 yuan/ton from March 20; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 71,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,275 yuan/ton from March 20. [14][23] - **Inventory and Position**: As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 555,917 lots, a decrease of 5.06% from March 20; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 40,656 lots from March 20. [20] - **Spot Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% from March 20; in Shanxi, it was 2,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 20; in Guiyang, it was 2,775 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 20. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from March 20. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 23,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from March 20, and the spot discount was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week. [27][32] 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 423,075 tons, a decrease of 2.23% from March 19; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 454,571 tons, an increase of 0.56% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,294,000 tons, a decrease of 0.38% from March 19. As of March 27, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 408,197 tons, an increase of 1.15% from March 20; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 272,825 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from March 19. [37] - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 24.23 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons month - on - month. In February 2026, the import volume of bauxite was 16.953 million tons, a decrease of 11.95% month - on - month and an increase of 18.05% year - on - year. From January to February, the import volume of bauxite was 36.2058 million tons, an increase of 18.7% year - on - year. [40] - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton. In February 2026, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, a decrease of 17.09% year - on - year; the export volume was 55.23 tons, a decrease of 15.26% year - on - year. [46] - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 15.18 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year - on - year. In February 2026, the alumina import volume was 1.81 million tons, a decrease of 30.49% month - on - month and an increase of 334.19% year - on - year; the export volume was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 21.05% month - on - month and a decrease of 28.57% year - on - year. From January to February, the cumulative alumina import was 441,400 tons, an increase of 468.96% year - on - year. [48][49] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 7.534 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year. In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.916 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 2.12%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the operating rate was 98.93%, an increase of 0.04% from last month and a decrease of 1.56% from the same period last year. In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 201,500 tons, an increase of 0.65% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative import was 390,400 tons, an increase of 7.97% year - on - year; the export volume in February was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to February was 23,300 tons. The global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 218,200 tons from January to January 2026. [52][56] - **Aluminum Products**: In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%; from January to February, the cumulative output was 9.486 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In February 2026, the aluminum product import volume was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%; the export volume was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to February, the aluminum product import volume was 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; the export volume was 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. [59][60] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In February 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The output of recycled aluminum alloy was 270,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.47%. [63] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% year - on - year; from January to February, the cumulative output was 2.765 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year - on - year. In February 2026, the aluminum alloy import volume was 65,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.25%; the export volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. From January to February, the aluminum alloy import volume was 156,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.46%; the export volume was 37,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.33%. [65][66] - **Real Estate**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from last month and a decrease of 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to February 2024, the new housing construction area was 50.839 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.13%; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99%. [69] - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to February 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. In February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1,805,165, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%; the production volume was 1,672,445, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. [72] 4. Option Market Analysis - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility. [78]