Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The USDA raised the US corn export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels and lowered the ending stock forecast to 2.127 billion bushels in this month's supply and demand report. The global corn ending stock forecast was lowered to 288.98 million tons, which is lower than last month's 290.91 million tons and the analysts' average expectation of 290.48 million tons. The report data is slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, the import profit of Chinese buying ships remains good, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [3]. - In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of grass - roots farmers in the Northeast production area to sell grain is not high, the purchasing enthusiasm of drying towers has declined, and some drying towers have stopped purchasing. Feed enterprises have basically completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and deep - processing enterprises have gradually entered the stage of production suspension and purchase suspension. The market trading activity is not high, and the price is mainly stable [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, corn starch production enterprises have gradually started maintenance, and the industry operating rate has declined. However, logistics transportation has significantly shrunk, and industry inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 3.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90%. From the disk perspective, boosted by the strengthening of corn, starch has risen synchronously, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2,320 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (5 - 9) of 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,572 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (3 - 5) of - 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1,220,455 lots, an increase of 45,782 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 71,986 lots, a decrease of 19,866 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 196,629 lots, a decrease of 22,526 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 38,429 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 88,570 lots, and that of corn starch is 11,161 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 427.75 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1,740,882 contracts, an increase of 33,428 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 34,698 contracts, a decrease of 3,027 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2,022.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 52.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2,530.72 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 575 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 425.53 million tons, and the sown area is 36.44 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, and the sown area is 22.6 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, and the sown area is 7.5 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, and the sown area is 44.3 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 29 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory at southern ports is 704,000 tons, an increase of 199,000 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 5.127 million tons, an increase of 722,000 tons [2]. - The corn inventory at northern ports is 2.13 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 800,000 tons, an increase of 240,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3.0086 million tons, an increase of 30,700 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is 63 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 135,720 tons, a decrease of 2,820 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 71 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 58.03%, an increase of 0.6%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 55.68%, a decrease of 2.11% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.9%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, a decrease of 2.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.54%, an increase of 3.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.55%, an increase of 3.58% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the report will show that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending February 5, 2026, may range from 600,000 to 1.2 million tons [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that the estimated corn export volume of Brazil in February 2026 is 953,000 tons, higher than the estimate of 793,000 tons a week ago, lower than 3.25 million tons in January, and lower than 1.317 million tons in February 2025 [2].

免责声明 持续进行影响，种植户与贸易主体恐高心理陆续显现，开始释放粮源，且下游需求偏淡，企业库存有所回 升，追高采购意愿不强，价格继续小幅调整。盘面来看，前期连续回落后，近日玉米期价维持震荡，暂且 观望。 | 观点总结（ | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。截至12月17日，全国玉米淀粉 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 企业淀粉库存总量107.4万吨，较上周增加2.50万吨，周增幅2.38%，月增幅0.47%；年同比增幅22.32%。不过，元旦及春节备货 | | | | | 淀粉） | | | | | | 重点关注 | 或提振下游行业需求预期，且木薯淀粉涨幅过大后，部分下游客户重新采购玉米淀粉，进一步提升其需求增量。盘面来看，近来受 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | | | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | | | | 玉米回落影响，淀粉同步回落，短期观望。 | | | | | | | 研究员: 许方莉 | 期货从业资格号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US report is slightly bearish, with high short - term supply pressure due to the approaching end of the harvest. In the domestic market, the price in the Northeast region is rising due to reduced supply from the grassroots level, but the price - driving force is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market is not very active, and the futures price is generally in a strong oscillation, suggesting short - term observation [2]. - For corn starch, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and downstream demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased recently, and the futures price has risen with the corn market, suggesting short - term observation [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2535 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108473 hands, up 699 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is - 1400 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2220 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8180 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 67364 hands, down 202 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 437.75 cents/bushel; the total position is 1596361 contracts, up 46302 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 11046 contracts, down 92353 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2302.06 yuan/ton, down 22.83 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2031.22 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2560 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of the main contract is 25 yuan, down 23 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2503.61 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively, with changes of 0.55 million hectares, 0, and 0 respectively; the predicted yields are 427.11 million tons, 131 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively, with changes of 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; the inventory at northern ports is 134 million tons, up 10 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 272.7 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 110.9 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.31 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, up 0.5%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 60.89%, down 2.59% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.72%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.4%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, up 5.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.55%, up 5.57% [2]. Industry News - As of November 19, the sown area of Argentina's 2025/26 corn is 37.3% of the total expected area, only 0.7% more than a week ago, lower than 39.4% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture released a monthly crushing report. In August, the total consumption of US corn was 511 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month but down 4% year - on - year. The US 2025/26 corn yield per acre is estimated to be 186.0 bushels, with a production estimate of 1.6752 billion bushels, slightly lower than the September estimate [2]. Key Points to Focus On - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

| 观点总结（ | 随着前期检修企业陆续复工，近来玉米淀粉行业开机率有所回升，供应端压力增加。同时，下游需求仍处淡季，签单走货欠佳，玉 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 米淀粉供大于求格局明显。截至8月6日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量132万吨，较上周增加2.70万吨，周增幅2.09%，月增幅0 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | .69%；年同比增幅14.48%。盘面来看，今日淀粉震荡收跌，总体仍维持偏弱趋势，偏空思路对待。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 玉米系产业日报 2025-08-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 2 | 2281 | 吨) | 2648 | -3 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约) ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-05-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -19 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2344 | | 2704 | -31 | | | 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 1 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) | 103 | 吨) | -67 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -43939 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 1409659 | | 224813 | -12815 | | | 9751 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -158725 | | -2174 | 5494 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 2763 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 200368 | 手) | 20122 | 4172 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) -12 ...