玉米供需博弈

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短期供需博弈加剧 玉米期货上方空间不宜过分乐观
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-27 23:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that corn futures have shown slight upward movement, with a closing price of 2311 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 0.26% [1] - The trading volume for corn futures decreased by 215,569 contracts compared to the previous week, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] - Argentina's corn sales have slowed down, with 23.16 million tons sold as of July 16, which is lower than the previous year's sales of 25.31 million tons [2] Group 2 - The USDA reported that approximately 9% of U.S. corn planting areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week but higher than 4% from the same time last year [2] - Short-term market dynamics show both support and pressure for corn prices, with ongoing imports and limited upward momentum in the futures market [3] - Long-term projections suggest that domestic supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitution effects, but price increases may be limited by policy grain releases and competition from wheat [3][4] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a tightening supply situation due to reduced willingness to sell and ongoing consumption of stocks, which supports current prices [4] - The price gap between corn and wheat remains high, leading to increased demand for wheat and limiting corn's market potential [4] - Overall, the market is expected to face a supply-demand tug-of-war in the short term, with a cautious approach recommended for trading strategies [4]