1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is currently in a phased adjustment, but the price is expected to remain strong in the first half of the year due to decreasing grain sources and rigid demand. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain sufficient inventory, while traders should buy low and sell high [3][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2605 contract has been under pressure and adjusted after reaching a nearly 2 - year high of 2443. The spot price is relatively stable, with the Pingcang price in Bayuquan dropping slightly from 2405 yuan/ton to around 2400 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port remaining around 2530 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened slightly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount. The starch main 2605 contract has also adjusted this week, with the starch price rising slightly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu Corn has increased from 3010 yuan/ton to around 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis has strengthened in a volatile manner [3] Supply - side Situation - As of March 19, the national grain sales progress was 78%, 6% slower than the same period last year. The remaining grain of farmers is gradually running out, and the grain sources are shifting to downstream players such as traders. However, the enthusiasm for central grain reserve public bidding has declined, with a cumulative release of 404,000 tons and a transaction volume of 354,000 tons as of March, with a transaction rate of 87.8%. In addition, the directional invitation auction of imported corn continues [3] Inventory Situation - As of March 13, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 2182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the weekly shipping volume was 752,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 285,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the foreign trade corn inventory was 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The corn inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have stopped falling and rebounded. As of March 20, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3,769,000 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the lowest in the same period in recent years. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.27 days, a month - on - month increase [4] Substitute and Import Situation - Although the wheat price has also risen, the corn price has risen more, and the wheat - corn price difference has further narrowed. If the narrowing increases, there may be substitution. Since last October, the import of corn in China has increased significantly, and it may continue to increase in the future to adjust the domestic corn supply and demand [4] External Market Situation - The US corn in the external market is oscillating strongly. The continuous rise of energy under the US - Iran conflict has boosted the ethanol price, and the demand may increase. However, the energy price increase has put pressure on many countries' economies, so beware of subsequent reversals. The planting area of new - season US corn may be reduced, and attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's planting area intention report at the end of March [4] Demand - side Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig prices have fallen, and the breeding industry is in full - scale loss. The industry has adjusted the target inventory of breeding sows to 36.5 million heads. Although the current high inventory still supports feed demand, the long - term growth of feed demand may be affected due to the possible further reduction of production capacity. In the poultry industry, egg prices have fallen, and the breeding industry continues to lose money. The sales volume of chicken seedlings in February continued to increase, and the elimination of old chickens decreased. The inventory of laying hens in February may have increased [5] - **Deep - processing demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises has improved. Affected by the sharp rise in starch prices, the processing profit of starch processing enterprises has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased. As of March 20, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 58.8%, a month - on - month increase, and the starch inventory was 1,203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. Alcohol processing enterprises are still in a loss, with an operating rate of 58.77%, a month - on - month increase. The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises have increased [5] Market Outlook - The remaining domestic grain is close to 20%, and the supply in the Northeast is tight. The grain sources are shifting to the downstream, but there are supplements from public bidding and import auctions. The corn market is under phased pressure. However, as the grain sources gradually decrease and the demand is rigid, the price is expected to remain strong in the first half of the year [6]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International conflict sentiment boosts prices, and limited domestic grain reserves, especially in the Northeast, lead to a strong upward trend in corn prices However, government measures like public bidding and import auctions, along with demand differentiation, create resistance to further price increases It is advised that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods according to demand and maintain sufficient reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The corn main 2605 contract hit a nearly 2 - year high of 2443 this week and then retreated under pressure The spot price rose slightly, with the Bayuquan corn flat - hatch price increasing from 2390 yuan/ton to around 2405 yuan/ton, and the Shekou Port corn arrival price rising from 2520 yuan/ton to around 2530 yuan/ton The corn basis fluctuated, and the futures price was close to the spot price The starch main 2605 contract oscillated upward this week, reaching a new high of 2766 The starch price soared, with the Weifang Jinyu corn starch price increasing from 2920 yuan/ton to around 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened [3] 3.2 New Grain Sales - The new grain sales are slow, with only 26% of the national grain remaining As of March 12, the national grain sales progress was 74%, 6 percentage points slower than the same period last year In the Northeast, it was 75%, 5 points slower; in North China, 67%, 9 points slower; in Northwest China, 82%, 5 points slower As prices rise, farmers are more reluctant to sell due to limited remaining grain, and downstream procurement has slowed down Also, Sinograin's public bidding has increased, with 253,000 tons put up for auction in March so far, and 250,000 tons sold, with a 99% transaction rate Imported corn targeted auctions continue [3] 3.3 Inventory Status - Port inventories vary, and downstream enterprises are reducing inventories As of March 6, the North Port corn inventory was 1.951 million tons, rising month - on - month, and the weekly shipping volume was 341,000 tons, also rising month - on - month The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 524,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 172,000 tons, increasing month - on - month As of March 13, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 337,700 tons, at a record low for the same period in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.06 days, also decreasing [4] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - The substitution advantage of wheat is insufficient, and corn imports have increased significantly Although the wheat price has also risen, the corn price has increased more, further narrowing the wheat - corn price difference Corn imports have been on the rise since last October and may continue to increase to balance domestic supply and demand [4] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The US corn futures on the external market are oscillating strongly The ongoing US - Iran conflict has boosted ethanol demand due to rising energy prices, and the increase in fertilizer prices may raise planting costs, supporting the price [4] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand is strong, and deep - processing demand is improving Pig prices are falling, leading to overall losses in pig farming As of March 6, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 58.89 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 237.98 yuan per head, in severe loss In the poultry industry, egg prices have declined, and farming continues to make losses High inventory still supports current feed demand, but long - term feed demand growth may be negatively affected due to potential capacity reduction Deep - processing enterprise demand has improved The processing profit of starch processing enterprises has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased to 55.73% as of March 13 The alcohol processing enterprises are still in the red, but the operating rate has increased to 55.61% The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises have also increased [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the slowdown in new grain sales, the remaining grain is limited and tight in the Northeast; public bidding and import auctions supplement the supply. Demand is differentiated, and corn prices will continue to oscillate and rebound in the first half of the year, with a cautious outlook for the upside. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain sufficient reserves; traders should buy low and sell high [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - The corn main 2605 contract continued to rise this week, once reaching 2400. The spot price rose steadily. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan increased from 2350 yuan/ton to around 2390 yuan/ton; the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port increased from 2490 yuan/ton to around 2520 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, and the futures price was close to the spot price. The starch main 2605 contract rebounded and rose this week. The starch price increased, and the starch price of Weifang Jinyu increased from 2860 yuan/ton to around 2920 yuan/ton, with the basis oscillating and strengthening [4] 3.2 Grain Sales Progress - As of March 5, the total national grain sales progress was 70%, 5% slower than the same period last year. Among them, the progress in the Northeast was 71%, 4% slower; in North China, it was 62%, 8% slower; in the Northwest, it was 80%, 5% slower. After the Spring Festival, the grain sales rhythm slowed down due to limited remaining grain. However, as the temperature warms up, ground - stored grain may be sold in a concentrated manner. The supply in the Northeast is still tight, and Northeast corn is in high demand due to grain quality differentiation. As the grain source further transfers to the middle and lower reaches, it is expected that the ability to hold grain for higher prices will further increase [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of February 27, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 172.7 tons, a month - on - month decline and at a low level in recent years; the weekly shipping volume was 23.2 tons, continuing to decline. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to rise to 74.3 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 14.9 tons month - on - month. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises decreased. As of March 6, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 343.7 tons, continuously decreasing and at the lowest level in recent years; the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.25 days, also continuously decreasing recently. At high prices, downstream enterprises are cautious in their procurement [5] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - The wheat price rose slightly, and the corn price increased, narrowing the wheat - corn price difference, but there is still no substitution advantage at present. Since last October, China's corn imports have increased significantly and may continue to increase in the future to adjust the domestic corn supply and demand [5] 3.5 External Market Situation - Due to the conflict between the United States and Iran, the rising energy prices may boost the price of bio - fuels, which in turn boosts the price of U.S. corn. In addition, the increase in fertilizer prices may raise the planting cost, and the U.S. Agricultural Outlook Forum expects the planting area of U.S. corn to decrease this year [5] 3.6 Demand Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig prices are low, and the pig - raising industry is in full - scale loss again. As of March 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 58.89 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss; the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 237.98 yuan per head, in serious loss. The national inventory of breeding sows in December was 39.61 million, continuing to decrease; the national inventory of live pigs was 429.67 million, showing the first month - on - month decline in recent years and only a slight year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In January, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, and the culling rate decreased significantly; the production of piglets increased, but the sales volume decreased; the inventory of commercial pigs decreased month - on - month again. In the poultry industry, egg prices declined, and the poultry - raising industry remained in loss. In January, the sales volume of chicken chicks continued to increase, and the culling of old chickens remained at a high level; the inventory of laying hens decreased month - on - month again in January but was still at a high level. Due to the losses, breeding enterprises may be cautious in restocking again. The current high inventory still supports feed demand, but in the long run, the capacity may continue to be reduced, which is unfavorable for the growth of feed demand [6] - **Deep - processing demand**: The processing profits of starch processing enterprises are mostly in the red, and the operating rate of enterprises has recovered compared with before the Spring Festival. As of March 6, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 54.52%, a month - on - month increase but at a low level in recent years. The starch inventory was 121.9 tons, continuously increasing. Alcohol processing enterprises suffered significant losses, and the operating rate was 54.08%, a month - on - month decline and at the lowest level in recent years. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises recovered, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises increased [6]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint - The view that corn prices will fluctuate and rebound in the first half of the year remains unchanged, given the rapid sales of new grain, limited post - Chinese New Year surplus, and continuous public bidding and significant increase in imports, along with differentiated demand [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends - Corn's main 2605 contract rebounded this week. Spot prices rose slightly, with the flat - hatch price in Bayuquan increasing from 2330 yuan/ton to around 2340 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port rising from 2440 yuan/ton to around 2460 yuan/ton. The corn basis weakened, and the discount of the futures price narrowed [3] - Starch's main 2605 contract also rebounded this week. The starch price remained stable, and the basis weakened [3] Supply - side Analysis - New grain sales were fast, with limited post - Chinese New Year surplus. As of February 12, the national grain sales progress was 65%, 4% faster than the same period last year. Northeast China was 66%, 7% faster; North China was 58%, the same as last year; Northwest China was 76%, 2% faster. The post - Chinese New Year surplus was about 35%, and the supply in the Northeast might be tight. The public bidding of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation was active, with 138900 tons put in and 105800 tons sold as of February 12 [3] - Port inventories varied. As of February 6, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.792 million tons, still rising but at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 59200 tons, decreasing. The domestic - trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 43100 tons, and the foreign - trade inventory was 8700 tons, both decreasing [4] - Substitutes were insufficient, and corn imports increased significantly. The wheat - corn price difference remained high, making substitution unfeasible. In December, domestic corn imports increased by 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The total imports in 2025 were 264700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.8%. Corn imports have been rising since last October and may continue to increase [4] Demand - side Analysis - Feed demand was strong. Pig prices fell, and breeding profits were divided. As of February 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 91.42 yuan per pig, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 38.09 yuan per pig, in loss again. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, decreasing; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, with the first month - on - month decrease in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell, and breeding was close to loss. In December, the sales of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens reached a recent high. Although the inventory of laying hens has been slightly decreasing, the base was high [5] - Deep - processing demand declined. The processing profits of starch processing enterprises were mostly in loss, and the operating rate decreased. As of February 13, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 55.68%, further decreasing; the starch inventory was 1.025 million tons, increasing. Alcohol processing enterprises suffered large losses, with an operating rate of 53.97%, decreasing to a recent low. The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises decreased, and some enterprises may have shutdown plans due to upcoming holidays [6] Market Outlook and Suggestions - The view that corn prices will fluctuate and rebound in the first half of the year remains unchanged. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is entering the pre - festival purchasing and selling sprint stage. The overall grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, but the pre - festival concentrated grain sales pressure has not been fully released. Northeast grain sales are faster than last year, while North China is slower. Pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate within a limited range. After the Spring Festival, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - Since the end of December, the price of the corn main contract has rebounded from a low of 2183 yuan/ton and reached a high of 2314 yuan/ton on January 26, then entered a high - level correction. The grain sales progress in the Northeast is 62%, and 53% in North China. The market circulation of grain sources has increased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain. State reserve and local reserve corn supplies are increasing, which may put pressure on prices. Downstream enterprises are near the balance of profit and loss and have limited acceptance of high - priced corn, and pre - festival inventory - building demand is approaching the end [8] - The overall structure shows a Contango structure, with 05 contract at a discount to 09, and 09 at a discount to 01 [9] 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose supply in the corn market lays the foundation for low prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". The national corn output in 2026 is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons compared with 2024. Imported corn auctions and wheat substitution have made the market supply more balanced. The planting cost in the Northeast has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu. After calculation, the port collection price is about 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13][14] - There are still regional and structural contradictions in corn production. About 20 - 30 million tons of North China corn has quality problems, which has increased the demand for Northeast corn. The current grain sales progress in the Northeast is about 65%, and 55% in North China. Farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain, and the increase in state and local reserve corn supplies may put pressure on prices [17] - In December 2025, China imported 800,000 tons of corn, a year - on - year increase of 1.35%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%. It is expected that the import volume in early 2026 will remain low, and the import volume in 2025/2026 is estimated to be 4 million tons, an increase of 2.18 million tons compared with the previous year [19] - In 2025, wheat production increased by about 4% year - on - year. Due to weak demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the estimated substitution volume is between 20 - 30 million tons. As the price difference between corn and wheat reverses, wheat substitution is expected to decrease [24] 3.2.2 Downstream demand remains rigid but has no incremental growth, with limited boosting effect - In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of December 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, and the sow inventory was 39.61 million. The pig price is below the cost, and the short - term demand for corn feed is mainly rigid. The recent breeding profit has rebounded slightly, with the profit of purchasing piglets at 47.8 yuan/head and the profit of self - breeding sows at 96.27 yuan/head as of January 30 [29] - In the deep - processing sector, after the price increase of new - season corn, the cost has increased significantly, and enterprises are in a loss state. The total regional processing profit is - 49.11 yuan/ton. Enterprises' enthusiasm for inventory replenishment is affected, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand [30] 3.2.3 Inventory is at a phased low, increasing price elasticity - As of January 30, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.63 million tons, and the inventory in the Guangdong port was 660,000 tons. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the depletion of farmers' surplus grain and traders' hoarding. The decline in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory makes the market more sensitive to price fluctuations [36] 3.3 Market Outlook - The pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate in a narrow range. After the Spring Festival, due to temperature rise and farmers' storage pressure, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The U.S. corn export inspection volume has decreased significantly, while Brazil's corn planting and harvesting rates show mixed trends, indicating potential shifts in the global corn market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Corn Export Data - As of the week ending January 29, 2026, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,136,352 tons, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and a 10% decline compared to the same week last year [1]. Group 2: Brazil Corn Production and Planting Rates - Brazil's first corn planting rate reached 95.2% as of January 31, up from 93.6% the previous week and comparable to 95% the same time last year [1]. - The first corn harvesting rate in Brazil was reported at 8.6%, an increase from 7.4% the previous week but lower than 10.5% from the same period last year [1]. - The second corn planting rate in Brazil was at 12%, significantly up from 5.9% the previous week and slightly higher than 5.3% last year [1]. - AgRural has raised its forecast for Brazil's corn production for the 2025/26 season by 600,000 tons to 13.66 million tons [1]. Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guodu Futures, the approach of the Spring Festival has accelerated the sales of grassroots inventory, with quality issues in North China grain sources and low inventory levels supporting corn prices [2]. - Financial Futures noted that while grassroots inventory consumption and pre-holiday stocking by downstream sectors support corn prices, the recovery of deep processing enterprise inventories and weakened price increase motivation may lead to short-term price fluctuations [3].

Group 1: Corn Market Overview - As of January 15, the corn selling progress in Northeast China reached 52%, which is 3% faster than the same period in 2025, with a weekly increase of 3% [1] - The average weekly price of corn nationwide as of January 16 was 2317 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] - The total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.332 million tons as of January 9, a decrease of 206,000 tons week-on-week, and significantly lower than the 4.618 million tons in the same period of 2025 [1] Group 2: Livestock and Feed Industry - As of January 15, the profit from self-bred pigs was 25.77 yuan/head, an increase of 26 yuan/head from the previous week, while the profit from purchased piglets was -100.5 yuan/head, up by 29 yuan/head [2] - The average inventory days for feed enterprises nationwide was 31.15 days, an increase of 1.05 days week-on-week, but down 6.71% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Corn Processing and Demand - The total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises across 12 regions was 3.59 million tons as of January 14, a 1.41% increase week-on-week, yet still the lowest in nearly three years [3] - From January 8 to January 14, major processing enterprises consumed 1.3559 million tons of corn, a decrease of 2.59 million tons from the previous week, and lower than the 1.41 million tons in the same period of 2025 [3] - The profit from corn-to-ethanol processing in Heilongjiang was -742 yuan/ton, lower than -377 yuan/ton in 2025, indicating increased processing losses despite a slight rise in starch prices [3] Group 4: Future Corn Price Outlook - Most institutions predict limited corn production growth in 2025, with imports expected to be between 5 to 6 million tons, which is relatively low [4] - The current market shows reluctance to chase high spot prices, indicating uncertainty about future corn prices, as evidenced by the lower increase in spot prices compared to futures [4] - The price gap between Northeast and Southern corn is near historical highs, and factors such as policy releases and wheat auctions are expected to limit the upward potential of corn prices in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Starting from November 2025, corn prices in North China entered a narrow consolidation phase, with limited selling from farmers and demand-driven purchasing from downstream, leading to constrained price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approaches, farmer selling activity is expected to gradually increase, but downstream stocking demand remains limited, resulting in a relatively loose supply-demand balance and a forecasted slight decline in corn prices before the festival [3][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From November 2025, the main corn price in North China adjusted between 2206.43 and 2228.57 yuan/ton, experiencing a rise followed by a decline [3][15]. - As of January 8, 2026, the average selling progress of farmers in North China was 39%, which is 5 percentage points slower than the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in selling activity after an initial surge due to favorable weather during the harvest [6][17]. - The supply of corn from farmers is limited, and the new supply is slightly tight, providing some support for corn prices [6][17]. Group 2: Farmer Selling Activity - After the New Year in 2026, there was a slight increase in selling enthusiasm among farmers in some areas of North China, but overall selling volume is expected to be lower than in previous years [8][19]. - The moisture content of corn in some regions remains above 16%, limiting the supply of quality dry corn and affecting inventory levels in the trade sector [8][19]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In the feed sector, due to declining grain quality and tight supplies of dry corn, North China relies heavily on corn from Northeast China, which is facing slow outbound movement [9][20]. - As of December 2025, the average inventory days for feed enterprises in North China increased to 35.63 days, up by 12.31 days from the end of October, indicating a gradual increase in corn inventory [9][20]. - Despite some demand for inventory buildup before the Spring Festival, enterprises are generally cautious about current prices, leading to limited stocking volumes [9][20]. Group 4: Processing Sector - After the new crop is listed, the supply of wet corn in North China is relatively sufficient, but the supply of quality dry corn is significantly lower than in previous years [11][22]. - The processing enterprises are experiencing slow inventory increases due to the lowest theoretical processing profit levels in three years, which limits their acceptance of high prices [11][22]. - Overall, as farmer selling increases, the support for corn prices in North China is expected to weaken, with a forecasted price drop of 20-40 yuan/ton, potentially bringing the average price down to around 2200 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [13][22].

Core Viewpoint - Corn spot prices have shown a slight upward trend at the end of the year, driven by farmers' reluctance to sell and slow purchasing progress by traders, while demand remains rigid due to deep processing enterprises maintaining inventory levels [3][10]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Corn prices in Northeast China have ended their sideways movement, with mixed price changes from deep processing enterprises [4][11]. - The supply side shows that farmers are still reluctant to sell, leading to slow increases in market supply, which supports price stability in the short term [4][11]. - The port market is experiencing a divergence, with Northern ports showing stable to strong prices, while the Pearl River Delta is relatively weak [4][11]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The State Grain Trade Center announced a wheat auction scheduled for January 7, 2026, which may negatively impact corn prices as increased wheat supply could lead to downward pressure on wheat prices [5][12]. - As of now, over 200 million tons of autumn grain have been purchased nationwide, with corn purchases reaching 117 million tons, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years [5][12]. - The market is advised to closely monitor the progress of wheat auctions and the actual impact on corn prices, as well as the selling pace of farmers [5][12]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Deep processing enterprises are accumulating inventory, while feed enterprises are slightly reducing their stock levels, indicating a weak overall demand [6][13]. - The market is expected to maintain stable corn prices in the short term, but long-term trends will depend on the pace of replenishment and farmers' selling attitudes as the Spring Festival approaches [6][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the national corn average price began to rise gradually starting from November 2025, contrasting sharply with the continuous decline in 2024. However, the price increase slowed down in December, with a slight decline observed in mid-December [3][13] - As of December 29, the national corn average price was 2233.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.55 yuan/ton from November 3, representing a cumulative increase of 4.08% [3][13] - The supply-demand relationship for corn remains tight in most markets, and it is expected that the average price may continue to rise before the Spring Festival [3][10] Group 2 - In November and December, the probability of corn price fluctuations historically has been about 50-50. The Northeast region has shown the strongest price increase, contributing significantly to the national price rise due to tight supply conditions [5][15] - The supply of corn has been constrained due to reduced natural drying corn supply and slower purchasing progress in certain regions, which has supported price increases [5][15] - The average selling progress in the Northeast region was 42% as of December 29, 2025, which is 7 percentage points faster than the same period last year, while the North China region was at 35%, 3 percentage points slower than last year [8][18] Group 3 - The demand for corn is expected to increase as downstream enterprises seek to replenish inventory, although some companies may stock less than in previous years due to higher market prices [19] - The overall supply-demand situation suggests that corn prices in the Northeast may still have room for upward movement, while prices in North China may experience slight declines [20] - It is anticipated that the average corn price may rise by around 30 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, potentially reaching approximately 2260 yuan/ton [20]