余粮仅3成，玉米刷新近年新高 2026年3月6日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 玉米主力2605合约本周继续上行，一度站上2400。现货价格稳中有涨，其中鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价由2350元/吨涨至 2390元/吨附近；蛇口港玉米到港价由2490元/吨涨至2520元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡，盘面接近平水。 淀粉主力2605合约本周反弹走高。淀粉价格上涨，潍坊金玉米淀粉价格由2860元/吨涨至2920元/吨附近，基差震荡 走强。 成本，美农展望论坛预计今年美玉米种植面积下调。 （5）饲料需求偏强，深加工需求不足。猪价走低，养殖再次全面亏损。据wind：截至3月6日，外购仔猪养殖利润为 -58.89元/头，转盈为亏；自繁自养利润为-237.98元/头，严重亏损。数据显示12月全国能繁母猪存栏为3961万头，继 续调减；全国生猪存栏量为42967万头，近年首次环比下降，同比仅微增0.5%。规模厂1月能繁存栏微增，淘汰大幅下降； 仔猪产量增加、销量下滑；商品猪存栏再次环比下降。禽类方面，蛋价回落，养殖维持亏损；1月鸡苗销量续增，老鸡 淘汰维持高位；1月在产蛋鸡存栏再 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint - The view that corn prices will fluctuate and rebound in the first half of the year remains unchanged, given the rapid sales of new grain, limited post - Chinese New Year surplus, and continuous public bidding and significant increase in imports, along with differentiated demand [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends - Corn's main 2605 contract rebounded this week. Spot prices rose slightly, with the flat - hatch price in Bayuquan increasing from 2330 yuan/ton to around 2340 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port rising from 2440 yuan/ton to around 2460 yuan/ton. The corn basis weakened, and the discount of the futures price narrowed [3] - Starch's main 2605 contract also rebounded this week. The starch price remained stable, and the basis weakened [3] Supply - side Analysis - New grain sales were fast, with limited post - Chinese New Year surplus. As of February 12, the national grain sales progress was 65%, 4% faster than the same period last year. Northeast China was 66%, 7% faster; North China was 58%, the same as last year; Northwest China was 76%, 2% faster. The post - Chinese New Year surplus was about 35%, and the supply in the Northeast might be tight. The public bidding of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation was active, with 138900 tons put in and 105800 tons sold as of February 12 [3] - Port inventories varied. As of February 6, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.792 million tons, still rising but at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 59200 tons, decreasing. The domestic - trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 43100 tons, and the foreign - trade inventory was 8700 tons, both decreasing [4] - Substitutes were insufficient, and corn imports increased significantly. The wheat - corn price difference remained high, making substitution unfeasible. In December, domestic corn imports increased by 44.1% month - on - month and 135.3% year - on - year. The total imports in 2025 were 264700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.8%. Corn imports have been rising since last October and may continue to increase [4] Demand - side Analysis - Feed demand was strong. Pig prices fell, and breeding profits were divided. As of February 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 91.42 yuan per pig, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 38.09 yuan per pig, in loss again. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, decreasing; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, with the first month - on - month decrease in recent years and only a 0.5% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell, and breeding was close to loss. In December, the sales of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens reached a recent high. Although the inventory of laying hens has been slightly decreasing, the base was high [5] - Deep - processing demand declined. The processing profits of starch processing enterprises were mostly in loss, and the operating rate decreased. As of February 13, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 55.68%, further decreasing; the starch inventory was 1.025 million tons, increasing. Alcohol processing enterprises suffered large losses, with an operating rate of 53.97%, decreasing to a recent low. The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises decreased, and some enterprises may have shutdown plans due to upcoming holidays [6] Market Outlook and Suggestions - The view that corn prices will fluctuate and rebound in the first half of the year remains unchanged. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy at low prices and sell at high prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is entering the pre - festival purchasing and selling sprint stage. The overall grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, but the pre - festival concentrated grain sales pressure has not been fully released. Northeast grain sales are faster than last year, while North China is slower. Pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate within a limited range. After the Spring Festival, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - Since the end of December, the price of the corn main contract has rebounded from a low of 2183 yuan/ton and reached a high of 2314 yuan/ton on January 26, then entered a high - level correction. The grain sales progress in the Northeast is 62%, and 53% in North China. The market circulation of grain sources has increased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain. State reserve and local reserve corn supplies are increasing, which may put pressure on prices. Downstream enterprises are near the balance of profit and loss and have limited acceptance of high - priced corn, and pre - festival inventory - building demand is approaching the end [8] - The overall structure shows a Contango structure, with 05 contract at a discount to 09, and 09 at a discount to 01 [9] 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose supply in the corn market lays the foundation for low prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". The national corn output in 2026 is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons compared with 2024. Imported corn auctions and wheat substitution have made the market supply more balanced. The planting cost in the Northeast has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu. After calculation, the port collection price is about 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13][14] - There are still regional and structural contradictions in corn production. About 20 - 30 million tons of North China corn has quality problems, which has increased the demand for Northeast corn. The current grain sales progress in the Northeast is about 65%, and 55% in North China. Farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain, and the increase in state and local reserve corn supplies may put pressure on prices [17] - In December 2025, China imported 800,000 tons of corn, a year - on - year increase of 1.35%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%. It is expected that the import volume in early 2026 will remain low, and the import volume in 2025/2026 is estimated to be 4 million tons, an increase of 2.18 million tons compared with the previous year [19] - In 2025, wheat production increased by about 4% year - on - year. Due to weak demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the estimated substitution volume is between 20 - 30 million tons. As the price difference between corn and wheat reverses, wheat substitution is expected to decrease [24] 3.2.2 Downstream demand remains rigid but has no incremental growth, with limited boosting effect - In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of December 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, and the sow inventory was 39.61 million. The pig price is below the cost, and the short - term demand for corn feed is mainly rigid. The recent breeding profit has rebounded slightly, with the profit of purchasing piglets at 47.8 yuan/head and the profit of self - breeding sows at 96.27 yuan/head as of January 30 [29] - In the deep - processing sector, after the price increase of new - season corn, the cost has increased significantly, and enterprises are in a loss state. The total regional processing profit is - 49.11 yuan/ton. Enterprises' enthusiasm for inventory replenishment is affected, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand [30] 3.2.3 Inventory is at a phased low, increasing price elasticity - As of January 30, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.63 million tons, and the inventory in the Guangdong port was 660,000 tons. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the depletion of farmers' surplus grain and traders' hoarding. The decline in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory makes the market more sensitive to price fluctuations [36] 3.3 Market Outlook - The pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate in a narrow range. After the Spring Festival, due to temperature rise and farmers' storage pressure, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The U.S. corn export inspection volume has decreased significantly, while Brazil's corn planting and harvesting rates show mixed trends, indicating potential shifts in the global corn market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Corn Export Data - As of the week ending January 29, 2026, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,136,352 tons, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and a 10% decline compared to the same week last year [1]. Group 2: Brazil Corn Production and Planting Rates - Brazil's first corn planting rate reached 95.2% as of January 31, up from 93.6% the previous week and comparable to 95% the same time last year [1]. - The first corn harvesting rate in Brazil was reported at 8.6%, an increase from 7.4% the previous week but lower than 10.5% from the same period last year [1]. - The second corn planting rate in Brazil was at 12%, significantly up from 5.9% the previous week and slightly higher than 5.3% last year [1]. - AgRural has raised its forecast for Brazil's corn production for the 2025/26 season by 600,000 tons to 13.66 million tons [1]. Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guodu Futures, the approach of the Spring Festival has accelerated the sales of grassroots inventory, with quality issues in North China grain sources and low inventory levels supporting corn prices [2]. - Financial Futures noted that while grassroots inventory consumption and pre-holiday stocking by downstream sectors support corn prices, the recovery of deep processing enterprise inventories and weakened price increase motivation may lead to short-term price fluctuations [3].

Group 1: Corn Market Overview - As of January 15, the corn selling progress in Northeast China reached 52%, which is 3% faster than the same period in 2025, with a weekly increase of 3% [1] - The average weekly price of corn nationwide as of January 16 was 2317 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] - The total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.332 million tons as of January 9, a decrease of 206,000 tons week-on-week, and significantly lower than the 4.618 million tons in the same period of 2025 [1] Group 2: Livestock and Feed Industry - As of January 15, the profit from self-bred pigs was 25.77 yuan/head, an increase of 26 yuan/head from the previous week, while the profit from purchased piglets was -100.5 yuan/head, up by 29 yuan/head [2] - The average inventory days for feed enterprises nationwide was 31.15 days, an increase of 1.05 days week-on-week, but down 6.71% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Corn Processing and Demand - The total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises across 12 regions was 3.59 million tons as of January 14, a 1.41% increase week-on-week, yet still the lowest in nearly three years [3] - From January 8 to January 14, major processing enterprises consumed 1.3559 million tons of corn, a decrease of 2.59 million tons from the previous week, and lower than the 1.41 million tons in the same period of 2025 [3] - The profit from corn-to-ethanol processing in Heilongjiang was -742 yuan/ton, lower than -377 yuan/ton in 2025, indicating increased processing losses despite a slight rise in starch prices [3] Group 4: Future Corn Price Outlook - Most institutions predict limited corn production growth in 2025, with imports expected to be between 5 to 6 million tons, which is relatively low [4] - The current market shows reluctance to chase high spot prices, indicating uncertainty about future corn prices, as evidenced by the lower increase in spot prices compared to futures [4] - The price gap between Northeast and Southern corn is near historical highs, and factors such as policy releases and wheat auctions are expected to limit the upward potential of corn prices in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Starting from November 2025, corn prices in North China entered a narrow consolidation phase, with limited selling from farmers and demand-driven purchasing from downstream, leading to constrained price fluctuations. As the Spring Festival approaches, farmer selling activity is expected to gradually increase, but downstream stocking demand remains limited, resulting in a relatively loose supply-demand balance and a forecasted slight decline in corn prices before the festival [3][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From November 2025, the main corn price in North China adjusted between 2206.43 and 2228.57 yuan/ton, experiencing a rise followed by a decline [3][15]. - As of January 8, 2026, the average selling progress of farmers in North China was 39%, which is 5 percentage points slower than the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in selling activity after an initial surge due to favorable weather during the harvest [6][17]. - The supply of corn from farmers is limited, and the new supply is slightly tight, providing some support for corn prices [6][17]. Group 2: Farmer Selling Activity - After the New Year in 2026, there was a slight increase in selling enthusiasm among farmers in some areas of North China, but overall selling volume is expected to be lower than in previous years [8][19]. - The moisture content of corn in some regions remains above 16%, limiting the supply of quality dry corn and affecting inventory levels in the trade sector [8][19]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - In the feed sector, due to declining grain quality and tight supplies of dry corn, North China relies heavily on corn from Northeast China, which is facing slow outbound movement [9][20]. - As of December 2025, the average inventory days for feed enterprises in North China increased to 35.63 days, up by 12.31 days from the end of October, indicating a gradual increase in corn inventory [9][20]. - Despite some demand for inventory buildup before the Spring Festival, enterprises are generally cautious about current prices, leading to limited stocking volumes [9][20]. Group 4: Processing Sector - After the new crop is listed, the supply of wet corn in North China is relatively sufficient, but the supply of quality dry corn is significantly lower than in previous years [11][22]. - The processing enterprises are experiencing slow inventory increases due to the lowest theoretical processing profit levels in three years, which limits their acceptance of high prices [11][22]. - Overall, as farmer selling increases, the support for corn prices in North China is expected to weaken, with a forecasted price drop of 20-40 yuan/ton, potentially bringing the average price down to around 2200 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [13][22].

Core Viewpoint - Corn spot prices have shown a slight upward trend at the end of the year, driven by farmers' reluctance to sell and slow purchasing progress by traders, while demand remains rigid due to deep processing enterprises maintaining inventory levels [3][10]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Corn prices in Northeast China have ended their sideways movement, with mixed price changes from deep processing enterprises [4][11]. - The supply side shows that farmers are still reluctant to sell, leading to slow increases in market supply, which supports price stability in the short term [4][11]. - The port market is experiencing a divergence, with Northern ports showing stable to strong prices, while the Pearl River Delta is relatively weak [4][11]. Group 2: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The State Grain Trade Center announced a wheat auction scheduled for January 7, 2026, which may negatively impact corn prices as increased wheat supply could lead to downward pressure on wheat prices [5][12]. - As of now, over 200 million tons of autumn grain have been purchased nationwide, with corn purchases reaching 117 million tons, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years [5][12]. - The market is advised to closely monitor the progress of wheat auctions and the actual impact on corn prices, as well as the selling pace of farmers [5][12]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - Deep processing enterprises are accumulating inventory, while feed enterprises are slightly reducing their stock levels, indicating a weak overall demand [6][13]. - The market is expected to maintain stable corn prices in the short term, but long-term trends will depend on the pace of replenishment and farmers' selling attitudes as the Spring Festival approaches [6][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the national corn average price began to rise gradually starting from November 2025, contrasting sharply with the continuous decline in 2024. However, the price increase slowed down in December, with a slight decline observed in mid-December [3][13] - As of December 29, the national corn average price was 2233.28 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.55 yuan/ton from November 3, representing a cumulative increase of 4.08% [3][13] - The supply-demand relationship for corn remains tight in most markets, and it is expected that the average price may continue to rise before the Spring Festival [3][10] Group 2 - In November and December, the probability of corn price fluctuations historically has been about 50-50. The Northeast region has shown the strongest price increase, contributing significantly to the national price rise due to tight supply conditions [5][15] - The supply of corn has been constrained due to reduced natural drying corn supply and slower purchasing progress in certain regions, which has supported price increases [5][15] - The average selling progress in the Northeast region was 42% as of December 29, 2025, which is 7 percentage points faster than the same period last year, while the North China region was at 35%, 3 percentage points slower than last year [8][18] Group 3 - The demand for corn is expected to increase as downstream enterprises seek to replenish inventory, although some companies may stock less than in previous years due to higher market prices [19] - The overall supply-demand situation suggests that corn prices in the Northeast may still have room for upward movement, while prices in North China may experience slight declines [20] - It is anticipated that the average corn price may rise by around 30 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, potentially reaching approximately 2260 yuan/ton [20]

Summary - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market has experienced a decline due to month-end position adjustments and long liquidation, with significant drops in both January and March contracts. However, the spot market remains relatively strong despite these declines [3][28]. Group 1: Market Performance - In mid-December, the January futures contract fell from a high of 2310 to around 2200, a decrease of approximately 110 points or 4.8%. The March contract also dropped from 2277 to about 2185, down approximately 92 points or 4% [3][28]. - The spot prices for corn at Jinzhou Port decreased from 2330 to 2295, a drop of 35 points or about 1.5%. Prices in Weifang, Shandong, fell from 2260 to 2250, and at Shekou Port from 2490 to 2420 [3][28]. Group 2: Supply and Sales Progress - As of December 19, the national grain sales reached 42%, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but the month-on-month growth has slowed significantly. The Northeast region's sales reached 41%, with notable increases in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia [4][29]. - The sales progress in North China was 37%, slightly slower than last year, with Shandong and Hebei showing declines of 2% and 5% respectively. The sales in Henan were at 47%, up by 5% year-on-year [4][29]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of December 19, the inventory at the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, significantly lower than 4.39 million tons last year. The inflow of goods has remained high, indicating a positive market sentiment for grain sales [31]. - In Guangdong, the grain inventory was 1.303 million tons, with a slight increase in domestic corn inventory. However, the overall inventory remains low compared to last year [33]. Group 4: Feed Demand and Processing - The feed industry shows stable corn inventory levels, with an average of 29.98 days of inventory. The total feed production in November was 28.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [35][10]. - The processing sector is facing losses, with processing rates at 60.46% as of December 25, down about 6 percentage points year-on-year. This has limited the demand for corn [12][39]. Group 5: Import Auctions and Price Dynamics - The ongoing import corn auctions have seen high demand, but the low auction price of 2000 yuan/ton has led to a perception of supply being more abundant than it is. The auctions aim to alleviate inventory pressure and increase market supply [41][17]. - Price differentials between regions, such as between Guangdong and Northeast ports, have narrowed due to limited demand at higher prices, affecting the pricing dynamics in the market [42]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation is trending towards a more relaxed state, with expectations of downward price adjustments in the near term. The seasonal peak in grain sales before the Spring Festival may also influence market dynamics [47].

Group 1 - December corn futures prices experienced a sharp rise and subsequent decline, with the C2601 contract breaking through the 2300 yuan/ton mark, attracting market attention [1] - The low inventory of old crop corn, combined with continuous rainfall during the harvest period in North China, led to a decline in grain quality, increasing urgency among downstream grain enterprises to stockpile [1] - The accelerated outflow of high-quality corn from Northeast China was noted as traders rushed to fulfill previously signed sales contracts, while farmers exhibited a reluctance to sell due to rising prices [1] Group 2 - The annual supply and demand balance sheet is a crucial reference for market participants, indicating a shift from a tight supply situation in the previous year to a slightly looser state for the 2025/2026 corn season [2] - The corn planting area is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in overall corn planting area due to some regions switching to soybean cultivation, while weather conditions this year have favored corn growth, leading to a significant increase in yield [2] - The total corn supply for the 2025/2026 season is projected to be approximately 29.517 million tons, an increase of 4.187 million tons or about 16% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The ending inventory for the current year is estimated at around 15 million tons, indicating a shift from a tight supply situation to a slight surplus [3] - During the grain selling phase, corn prices are expected to primarily experience a downward trend due to increased production and faster selling rates by farmers, with December being a peak selling season [3] - The market may see price fluctuations during the trading phase as the remaining inventory decreases, but limited rebound potential is anticipated due to reduced feed consumption and prior stockpiling by feed enterprises [3]