据了解，8月上旬东三省深加工企业平均玉米库存天数约为39天，部分企业新粮上市前暂无缺口，即新 粮上市前新增玉米采购量较为有限。从季节性特点来看，黑龙江东部农场将于9月中旬前后新粮陆续上 市，届时当地深加工企业原料将得到有效补充。 8月上旬东北深加工企业收购价格持续上涨，并与市场价价差持续收窄。展望后市，预计在9月中旬东北 新粮上市前，深加工企业以消耗合同粮及库存为主，新增玉米采购量偏低，叠加其他产区新季玉米上市 影响，东北市场玉米行情承压下行的几率较大。 具体来看，8月上旬东北深加工企业玉米收购月均价涨至年内最高点，但仍处于近年同期较低位。卓创 资讯监测数据显示，截至8月10日，东北产区样本深加工企业8月玉米收购月均价为2242元／吨，较7月 全月均价略高2元／吨，较去年8月全月均价低31.5元／吨，跌幅1.39%。受供应收紧令企业不断提价促 收影响，今年以来，东北深加工企业玉米收购月均价持续走高。 今年玉米价格整体走高，给深加工企业带来明显压力。具体表现在，1-6月，东北深加工企业月度玉米 总收购量呈现下降趋势，7月环比有所反弹。卓创资讯监测数据显示，7月份东北样本深加工企业玉米收 购总量为96万吨，环比增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The c2509 contract is affected by multiple negative factors such as high production, sufficient supply from imported corn, substitution by wheat and other grains, high new - crop planting area, and expected good yield. The new - crop's minimum planting cost on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift down [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - The corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the new - crop corn is growing well. The current main variable in future supply is the weather during the growing period, especially rainfall. This week, the national corn market continued to be weak, with both futures and spot prices falling significantly. Different regions have different supply and demand situations. The new - crop production expectation and cost center shift down drive the futures price down [7][8]. Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The estimated import volume for the 2024/25 period is 5 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 period [16][17]. Substitutes - Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure from imported substitutes is decreasing. The main domestic substitutes are wheat and millet, and the imported substitutes are mainly imported sorghum and barley. The wheat market is oscillating, and the current corn - wheat price difference in North China is in the substitutable range, so the substitution pressure on corn is high. In June 2025, the import volume of barley and sorghum decreased year - on - year, reducing the substitution pressure [26][28]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is generally average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, parent - stock white - feather broilers, and egg - laying chicken seedlings is at a high level, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit is at a low level, the broiler breeding profit is seasonally high, and the egg - laying chicken breeding loss has expanded [32][34]. Deep - processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has risen significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has recovered to a neutral level, about 54.8%. The production of corn starch has also increased, but the downstream提货 volume is relatively low. The production profit of corn starch is severely in the red, and the profit of corn alcohol enterprises is still in the red [54][55]. Inventory Trade Channel Corn Inventory - The inventory in trade channels and downstream is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 1, the inventory in the four northern ports continued to decline, with the total inventory dropping to about 1.9 million tons. The domestic trade inventory in southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises reached a new high in the past eight years, about 1.32 million tons [78][80]. Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of feed enterprises continues to decrease, with the available inventory days at around 30 days, and the inventory in North China and South China is relatively high [79]. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally, with the national inventory at about 3.64 million tons, at a neutral level [79]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch, including the basis of different contracts in Jinzhou Port and Jilin area, and the spread between different contracts of corn and starch [114][124]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On August 7, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [132].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily Report" and is issued by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on August 8, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The southern port's grain inventory is being depleted slowly, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the warehouse receipt pressure is high. Although the supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, the time for the 09 contract is limited. Due to the harvest pressure of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the 11 and 01 contracts of corn are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6] Group 4: Price and Market Data Spot Prices - Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Harbin price in Heilongjiang Province is 2195 yuan/ton, unchanged. Among them, the price in Hebei Province decreased by 10 yuan [5] - Corn starch spot prices are 2750 yuan/ton in Jilin Province and 2434 yuan/ton in Henan Province, both unchanged [5] - Wheat spot prices are 2435 yuan/ton in Anhui Province, down 1 yuan, and 2434 yuan/ton in Jiangsu Province, unchanged [5] Futures Prices - The closing price of the corn main contract is 2267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract is 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] International Data - The closing price of US corn is 402.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2231.87 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported US corn is 198.13 yuan/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.18 [5] Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490 [5] Inventory Data - North port corn inventory is 210.6 tons, Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 88.2 tons, and foreign - trade corn inventory is 0.7 tons. Northeast deep - processing corn inventory is 215.9 tons, and North China deep - processing corn inventory is 114.9 tons [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The remaining grain is in short supply. Northeast grain has the demand for external transportation, and the volumes of grain collection and shipment at the north port have declined. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decrease, and the estimated port collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area has no obvious change, the new - season corn is growing well, and the supply of imported grains is expected to decrease this year due to continuous policy restrictions [5] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting the feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The price difference between wheat and corn is at a low level, feed mills are increasing their wheat purchases, the wheat substitution ratio is increasing, and they are maintaining a cautious attitude towards corn purchases. The deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, and the deep - processing demand is shrinking [5] Inventory - The north port inventory has been depleted to a low level, the southern port grain inventory is being depleted slowly, the feed enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the deep - processing corn inventory has declined this week [5]

Group 1: Market Data - The USDA reported private exporters sold 125,000 tons of corn to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 marketing year, with the U.S. corn marketing year starting on September 1 [1] - As of July 27, the corn good-to-excellent rating was 73%, down from 74% the previous week, but still the best for this time of year since 2016, and higher than last year's 68% [1] - The top producing state, Iowa, had a good-to-excellent rating of 87%, up from 86% the previous week [1] Group 2: Drought Monitoring - As of July 29, 7% of U.S. corn was in drought areas, down from 9% the previous week and up from 5% the same time last year [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with consumption continuing to recover and port inventories quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure [3] - There has been a sharp reduction in corn imports from January to June, with high import margins suggesting potential for increased imports in the future [3] - The current strong spot prices for corn indicate that near-term contracts may have support at lower levels, and there are opportunities to consider out-of-the-money call options [3] Group 4: Price Dynamics - According to Greeen Dahan Futures, short-term price pressure on corn may arise due to the inverted pricing of wheat and corn in Shandong [4] - Mid-term expectations for new season corn trading are increasing, with a year-on-year decrease in planting costs putting pressure on long-term contract expectations [4] - Long-term pricing logic remains focused on import substitution and planting costs, with a key emphasis on policy direction [4]

Core Viewpoint - Corn futures experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract closing at 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of July 27, 2025, the USDA reported that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same time last year [1] - The favorable rating for U.S. corn indicates a strong production outlook, which continues to exert pressure on international corn prices [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the Northeast production area, trade inventories have dropped to low levels, with traders showing moderate enthusiasm for low-price sales [1] - Grain enterprises have medium to long-term orders but are primarily engaging in essential purchases, leading to a lack of market activity and minimal price fluctuations [1] - The presence of wheat as a substitute, along with policies regarding imported corn auctions and delayed deliveries, has contributed to a cautious overall market sentiment [1] Group 3: Price Trends and Strategy - This week, corn prices declined again, maintaining a generally weak trend [1] - The suggested trading strategy is to focus on short-term transactions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices were in a low - level oscillation. Abroad, as of July 22, the drought - affected area of US corn remained at 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate remained at 74%, in line with expectations. As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn were 1.38 million tons, also in line with expectations, and the US corn futures oscillated weakly. Domestically, wheat harvesting is basically over, and reserve depots in many places have entered the market to purchase, supporting wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season between harvests. Recently, auctions of imported corn have continued, but the transaction rate has gradually declined. Meanwhile, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises is generally low, and the short - term corn spot price has stopped falling. In terms of demand, current feed enterprises have relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking. Feed enterprises purchase as needed. Corn processing is also entering the off - season, and processing profits remain at a low level. The strategy is that with multiple factors at play, the US corn market oscillates weakly. In China, the purchase by reserves supports the firm wheat price. The short - term low supply of corn supports the spot price, while the continued auction of imported corn and the existing bearish sentiment in the market lead to an oscillating corn futures market. In the medium - to - long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter. However, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high, and corn prices may rise first and then fall [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 419.00 cents per bushel, down 9.00 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 2.10%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,311 yuan per ton, down 3 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.13% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 External Market - Weather: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is average, and the temperature is low [14] - Growth: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and higher than 67% in the same period last year. As of the same week, the silking rate was 56%, up from 34% the previous week but lower than 58% last year and the five - year average. The dough stage rate was 14%, up from 7% the previous week, lower than 16% last year but higher than the five - year average of 12%. As of the week ending July 22, about 9% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 4% last year [23] - Export: As of the week ending July 17, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 643,000 tons, up from 98,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 734,000 tons, up from 566,000 tons the previous week [27] 3.2.2 Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises: As of July 24, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.87 days, down 0.47 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 0.68% [31] - Deep - processing Enterprises: From July 17 to July 23, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week. Affected by weak downstream demand, the processing profit of corn starch weakened again. As of July 23, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [36][40] - Port Inventory: As of July 18, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 340,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 940,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 10,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 481,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week; the imported barley was 395,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the starch - to - corn spread, the corn basis, and the wheat - to - corn spread are mentioned [45][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that corn futures have shown slight upward movement, with a closing price of 2311 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 0.26% [1] - The trading volume for corn futures decreased by 215,569 contracts compared to the previous week, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] - Argentina's corn sales have slowed down, with 23.16 million tons sold as of July 16, which is lower than the previous year's sales of 25.31 million tons [2] Group 2 - The USDA reported that approximately 9% of U.S. corn planting areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week but higher than 4% from the same time last year [2] - Short-term market dynamics show both support and pressure for corn prices, with ongoing imports and limited upward momentum in the futures market [3] - Long-term projections suggest that domestic supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitution effects, but price increases may be limited by policy grain releases and competition from wheat [3][4] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a tightening supply situation due to reduced willingness to sell and ongoing consumption of stocks, which supports current prices [4] - The price gap between corn and wheat remains high, leading to increased demand for wheat and limiting corn's market potential [4] - Overall, the market is expected to face a supply-demand tug-of-war in the short term, with a cautious approach recommended for trading strategies [4]

Group 1 - Corn futures experienced a slight upward movement, with the main contract reaching a high of 2316.00 yuan and closing at 2314.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.22% increase [1] - The USDA reported that as of July 13, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 74%, matching market expectations and significantly higher than the previous year's 68% [2] - Domestic market conditions show a decline in auction transactions for imported corn, leading to lower market expectations and reduced purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises [2] Group 2 - The South American corn harvest is creating phase pressure on the market, while the increase in U.S. corn planting area and favorable growing conditions are contributing to a positive yield outlook [3] - The domestic market is facing pressure from wheat substitution and ongoing auctions of imported corn, which are expected to keep short-term prices under pressure [3] - Recommendations for trading strategies include cautious holding of short positions and considering selling wide spread strategies or out-of-the-money call options [3]

Market Review - The main corn futures contract closed down 0.09% at 2320 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that due to dry weather in unharvested areas, corn harvesting progressed rapidly, with 70.4% of the planted area harvested. Argentina is the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected corn production of 49 million tons for the 2024/25 season [2] - The USDA's weekly export sales report indicated that as of the week ending July 3, 2025, the net sales of U.S. corn for the 2024/25 season were 1,262,100 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 70% above the four-week average. For the 2025/26 season, net sales were 888,600 tons, down from 940,200 tons the previous week [2] - The latest USDA drought report showed that as of the week ending July 8, approximately 12% of U.S. corn planting areas were affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and up from 7% in the same period last year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, overall processing demand is unlikely to increase, while wheat and imported corn continue to supplement market supply, leading to a slightly pessimistic market sentiment and a minor price correction. However, the rising costs of storage funds may limit the decline. The 2509 contract is expected to follow the spot market with a focus on fluctuations, and attention should be paid to weather impacts on new crops in corn-producing areas [3] - Southwest Futures noted that domestic corn supply and demand are tending towards balance, with favorable policies and recovering consumption. The sale of old grain in major production areas is nearing completion, and port inventories are quickly returning, reducing inventory pressure and providing strong support at the bottom for corn prices. From January to May, corn imports sharply decreased, and import margins have increased, suggesting potential for higher import volumes in the future. The China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell corn through online auctions, and imported corn is beginning to be released. The narrowing price gap with substitutes may face upward pressure, indicating a cautious outlook [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices continued to decline. The fundamentals of US corn remain bearish, but the export net sales met expectations, leading to a slightly stronger trend. In the domestic market, wheat prices are supported by reserve purchases, and corn spot prices are temporarily stable, but the continuous auction of imported corn has weakened the futures market. In the medium to long term, corn prices may rise first and then fall, with a supply - demand gap in the third quarter and large supply pressure in the fourth quarter [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Points - The US corn fundamentals are bearish, with the drought - affected area dropping to 12% as of July 1. The export net sales of 147,000 tons last week met expectations, and the price showed a slightly stronger trend. In the domestic market, wheat harvest is basically over, and reserve purchases support wheat prices. Corn is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn has weakened the futures market. The current feed enterprise inventory is relatively abundant, and both the breeding and processing industries are in the off - season. In the long run, corn prices may rise first and then fall [6]. Market Review - As of July 4, the CBOT09 corn closed at 421.00 cents per bushel, up 9.75 points from last week, a weekly increase of 2.37%. The C2509 corn closed at 2,353 yuan per ton, down 31 points from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.30% [8]. Fundamental Analysis - **US Corn Weather**: There will be sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks [13]. - **US Corn Growth**: As of the week of June 29, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 73%, higher than the expected 70%, up from 70% the previous week and 67% in the same period last year. The silking rate was 8%, up from 4% the previous week, compared with 10% last year and a five - year average of 6%. As of the week of July 1, about 12% of the US corn - growing area was affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and 8% last year [13][21]. - **US Corn Export**: As of the week of June 26, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 533,000 tons, down from 741,000 tons the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 940,000 tons, up from 306,000 tons the previous week [13][25]. - **Domestic Inventory - Feed Enterprises**: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, down 0.63 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93% and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [13][29]. - **Domestic Inventory - Processing Enterprises**: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1763 million tons of corn, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week. The corn processing volume of starch enterprises was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from last week. The weekly corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week, and the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from last week. As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [13][31][35]. - **Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80,000 tons, and the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 300,000 tons, unchanged from last week; the imported sorghum was 505,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from last week; and the imported barley was 340,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from last week [13][37]. Spread Tracking No specific spread data analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - corn spread are mentioned [39][40][41].