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鸡蛋:近弱远强,反套格局
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 01:57
Report Core View - The egg market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with an inverse spread situation [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of egg2512 is 2,987 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.84%, a trading volume change of - 41,269, and an open interest change of - 14,044 [1] - The closing price of egg2601 is 3,499 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a trading volume change of 18,793, and an open interest change of 10,793 [1] Spread Data - The egg12 - 1 spread is - 242 (previous day: - 202) [1] - The egg12 - 5 spread is - 512 (previous day: - 444) [1] Spot Price Data - The spot prices in Liaoning, Shanxi are 3.00 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Hebei is 2.69 yuan/jin (previous day: 2.71 yuan/jin); the spot price in Hubei is 3.11 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.18 yuan/jin) [1] Industrial Chain Data - The corn spot price is 2,154 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,176 yuan/ton); the soybean meal spot price is 3,040 yuan/ton (previous day: 3,060 yuan/ton) [1] - The pig price in Henan is 11.68 yuan/kg (previous day: 11.98 yuan/kg) [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a neutral view, and the value range is within the [- 2,2] integer interval [1]
鸡蛋:调整阶段
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the egg market, indicating it is in an adjustment phase, and provides detailed fundamental and trend - related data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2512 is 3,217 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 1.93, and trading volume increased by 208,649 with an open interest increase of 7,887. The closing price of egg2601 is 3,509 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 1.23, and trading volume increased by 69,827 with an open interest increase of 6,222 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg12 - 1 spread is - 168 (previous day: - 193), and the egg12 - 5 spread is - 292 (previous day: - 348) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shanxi remained unchanged at 2.90 yuan/jin, 2.69 yuan/jin, and 2.80 yuan/jin respectively. The Hubei spot price rose from 3.24 yuan/jin to 3.29 yuan/jin. The corn spot price dropped from 2,176 yuan/ton to 2,154 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal spot price dropped from 3,050 yuan/ton to 3,030 yuan/ton. The Henan pig price dropped from 11.98 yuan/kg to 11.88 yuan/kg [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view on the market [1].
中下游库存偏低需补库 预计玉米短期价格波动较小
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-23 07:06
Core Viewpoint - Corn futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with potential for further price fluctuations and varying market sentiments among different institutions [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - As of March 15, corn futures main contract showed a strong oscillation, peaking at 2141.00 yuan, and closing at 2138.00 yuan with a 0.33% increase [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates that there may be a possibility of corn prices reaching new lows due to the anticipated pressure from a bumper harvest this year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, there is a possibility for corn prices to decline further, influenced by adjustments in futures prices and concentrated supply in the Northeast region [2] - Guangzhou Futures suggests that while corn spot prices are weakening due to increased supply, the lower inventory levels in the mid and downstream sectors may limit the downside potential for prices [3] - Caida Futures notes that with the new corn season entering a concentrated harvest phase, there is an increase in supply, but seasonal supply pressures are suppressing price increases, leading to short-term price volatility [4]
生猪、玉米周报:生猪行情持续下行,玉米关注下方支撑-20251013
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 05:10
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Live Pigs and Corn" [1][2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Tian Jinlian [3] Group 2: Live Pig Market Market Performance - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,140 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, down 1.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [4] - Profit: As of October 10, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.26, down 0.18 week - on - week [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Group farms continued to increase supply, and although some retail farmers had the psychology of delaying sales, the overall market supply did not decrease [4] - Demand: After the holiday, demand declined, and market transactions were weak [4] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the live pig market is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of farmers and the performance of secondary fattening [4] Group 3: Corn Market Market Performance - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2601 contract closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [5] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2,308.43 yuan/ton, down 60.2 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] - Port: Prices at major ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all declined [5] Industrial Consumption - Deep - processing: From October 2 to October 8, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, an increase of 31,700 tons week - on - week [6] - Starch: The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons; the weekly output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up from the previous week [6] - Alcohol: The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 54.96%, up 3.49 percentage points; the weekly production was 111,840 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 6.78% [6] Inventory - Processing Enterprises: As of October 8, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.334 million tons, an increase of 14.64% [6] - Ports: As of October 10, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 320,000 tons [6] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is gradually being listed, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased [7] - Demand: The operating rate of the industry is gradually increasing, and there is still an expectation of further improvement [7] - Outlook: In the short term, corn prices are still under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton on the futures market [7]
鸡蛋:轻仓过节
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:58
Report Core View - The report suggests a light - position strategy for eggs during the holiday [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Egg2510 closed at 2,918, with a daily decline of 1.15%, trading volume decreased by 1,203, and open interest decreased by 18,679 [1] - Egg2601 closed at 3,352, with a daily decline of 0.24%, trading volume increased by 1,842, and open interest decreased by 3,186 [1] Spread Data - The Egg10 - 12 spread was - 262 on the latest day, compared to - 233 the previous day [1] - The Egg10 - 1 spread was - 434 on the latest day, compared to - 414 the previous day [1] Spot Price Data - Liaoning's spot price remained at 3.40 yuan/jin [1] - Hebei's spot price dropped from 3.11 to 3.07 yuan/jin [1] - Shanxi's spot price remained at 3.15 yuan/jin [1] - Hubei's spot price dropped from 3.69 to 3.60 yuan/jin [1] Industry Chain Data - The corn spot price dropped from 2,317 to 2,300 yuan/ton [1] - The soybean meal spot price remained at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - The Henan pig price dropped from 12.58 to 12.43 yuan/kg [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [1]
鸡蛋:旺季将过,轻仓过节
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:56
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report is titled "Eggs: Peak Season Nearing End, Lighten Positions for the Holiday", suggesting a cautious stance on egg investment as the peak season is approaching its end [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Egg 2510 is 2,940 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.24%, and trading volume decreased by 3,697 and open interest decreased by 11,346. The closing price of Egg 2601 is 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and trading volume increased by 660 and open interest increased by 1,614 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The Egg 10 - 12 spread is -233 (previous day: -224), and the Egg 10 - 1 spread is -414 (previous day: -391) [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.40 yuan/jin, 3.20 yuan/jin, 3.35 yuan/jin, and 3.78 yuan/jin respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,317 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price remains at 2,940 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price remains at 12.58 yuan/kg [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].
鸡蛋:等待双节印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The report is titled "Eggs: Waiting for the Double Festival Confirmation", but no specific core view is elaborated in the provided content [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Egg 2510 is 2,957 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.17%, a trading volume decrease of 12,594, and an open - interest decrease of 6,401. The closing price of Egg 2601 is 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 7,297, and an open - interest increase of 2,124 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The Egg 10 - 12 spread is - 222 (previous day: - 242), and the Egg 10 - 1 spread is - 397 (previous day: - 413) [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.50 yuan/jin, 3.38 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.96 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,317 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 2,900 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,920 yuan/ton), and the pig price in Henan is 12.68 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged [2]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].
鸡蛋:旺季不旺
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:48
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The egg market is experiencing a situation where the peak season is not prosperous [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 2,949 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.80%, a trading volume change of -21,136, and an open interest change of -9,742. The closing price of egg2601 is 3,362 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a trading volume change of -9,578, and an open interest change of -569 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 10 - 12 spread is -242, and the egg 10 - 1 spread is -413, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.50 yuan/jin, 3.38 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.96 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous day's 2,317 yuan/ton. The soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous day's 2,950 yuan/ton. The pig price in Henan is 12.68 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous day's 12.73 yuan/kg [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1].
鸡蛋:博弈延续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View - There is no explicit core view presented in the report, mainly focusing on the fundamental data tracking of eggs. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,043 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 53,681, and an open - interest decrease of 54,902; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,349 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decrease of 0.71%, a trading volume increase of 4,549, and an open - interest increase of 4,652 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 126 (previous day: - 153), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 306 (previous day: - 334) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.30 yuan/jin, 3.11 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.40 yuan/jin), and 3.69 yuan/jin respectively [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.53 yuan/kg (previous day: 13.58 yuan/kg) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].
鸡蛋:近端博弈情绪偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:24
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The near - end game sentiment for eggs is relatively strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,011 with a daily increase of 2.62% and a trading volume change of 196,012 and an open - interest change of - 62,505; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,436 with a daily increase of 2.44%, a trading volume change of 28,519 and an open - interest change of - 3,877 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 242 (previous day: - 236), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 425 (same as the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Shanxi are 3.20 yuan/jin, in Hebei is 2.80 yuan/jin, and in Hubei is 3.22 yuan/jin, all remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.18 yuan/kg) [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [- 2,2] interval, indicating a neutral sentiment. The classification of strength includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].