商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 鸡蛋：轻仓过节 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,918 | -1.15 | -1,203 | | -18,679 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,352 | -0.24 | 1,842 | | -3,186 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -262 | | -233 | | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -434 | | -414 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.40 | | 3.40 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.07 | | 3.11 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.15 | | 3.15 | | | | 湖北现货价格 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report is titled "Eggs: Peak Season Nearing End, Lighten Positions for the Holiday", suggesting a cautious stance on egg investment as the peak season is approaching its end [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Egg 2510 is 2,940 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.24%, and trading volume decreased by 3,697 and open interest decreased by 11,346. The closing price of Egg 2601 is 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and trading volume increased by 660 and open interest increased by 1,614 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The Egg 10 - 12 spread is -233 (previous day: -224), and the Egg 10 - 1 spread is -414 (previous day: -391) [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.40 yuan/jin, 3.20 yuan/jin, 3.35 yuan/jin, and 3.78 yuan/jin respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,317 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price remains at 2,940 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price remains at 12.58 yuan/kg [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend intensity is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].

| | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,957 | -0.17 | -12,594 | -6,401 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,354 | -0.36 | -7,297 | 2,124 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -222 | | -242 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -397 | | -413 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.50 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.38 | | 3.38 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.45 | | 3.45 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.96 | | 3.96 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,300 | | 2,317 | | | 豆粕现货价格 | | 2,900 | | 2,920 | | | ...

| | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,949 | -1.80 | -21,136 | -9,742 | | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,362 | -0.56 | -9,578 | -569 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -242 | | -219 | | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -413 | | -384 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.50 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.38 | | 3.38 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.45 | | 3.45 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.96 | | 3.96 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,300 | | 2,317 | | | | 豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View - There is no explicit core view presented in the report, mainly focusing on the fundamental data tracking of eggs. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,043 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 53,681, and an open - interest decrease of 54,902; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,349 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decrease of 0.71%, a trading volume increase of 4,549, and an open - interest increase of 4,652 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 126 (previous day: - 153), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 306 (previous day: - 334) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.30 yuan/jin, 3.11 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.40 yuan/jin), and 3.69 yuan/jin respectively [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.53 yuan/kg (previous day: 13.58 yuan/kg) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The near - end game sentiment for eggs is relatively strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,011 with a daily increase of 2.62% and a trading volume change of 196,012 and an open - interest change of - 62,505; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,436 with a daily increase of 2.44%, a trading volume change of 28,519 and an open - interest change of - 3,877 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 242 (previous day: - 236), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 425 (same as the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Shanxi are 3.20 yuan/jin, in Hebei is 2.80 yuan/jin, and in Hubei is 3.22 yuan/jin, all remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.18 yuan/kg) [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [- 2,2] interval, indicating a neutral sentiment. The classification of strength includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, stating that in the near - term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens, and in the long - term, market sentiment remains weak [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2509 is 2,920 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.21%, a trading volume change of - 22,993, and an open interest change of - 10,271. The closing price of egg 2601 is 3,434 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a trading volume change of 2,423, and an open interest change of 7,456 [2] - **Spread Data**: The egg 9 - 10 spread is - 113 (previous day: - 131), and the egg 9 - 1 spread is - 514 (previous day: - 558) [2] - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.20 yuan/jin, 2.64 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 3.04 yuan/jin respectively, with some prices decreasing compared to the previous day [2] - **Feed and Related Product Prices**: The latest corn spot price is 2,328 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 3,050 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.78 yuan/kg [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the egg market is weak, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,259 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.36% and a trading volume decrease of 1,695 and an open interest decrease of 11,879. The closing price of egg2510 is 3,298 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.96% and a trading volume increase of 36,432 and an open interest increase of 21,483 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -263, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is -39, compared to -299 and -82 of the previous day respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.93 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 3.71 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, down from 2,368 yuan/ton of the previous day. The soybean meal spot price is 2,890 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The live pig price in Henan is 14.33 yuan/kg, up from 13.93 yuan/kg of the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish outlook, and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly report on live pigs and corn from July 22 - 28, 2025, published by Caida Futures [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the live pig futures rose significantly and then fell back. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - As of July 25, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig breeding profit was 62.16 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.73 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 52.73 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 [5] Price Trend and Policy Impact - The national live pig spot price rose first and then fell last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the typhoon, the breeding side reduced supply and resisted price cuts. As the weather impact weakened, group enterprises increased their slaughter, and terminal demand was weak, causing the price to decline slightly [5] - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry, proposing to implement capacity control measures, reduce the number of breeding sows, and control fat pig slaughter weight. This news boosted the live pig futures to break through 15,000, reaching a new high for the year [5] Short - term Outlook - In the short term, farms have completed their slaughter plans well, but demand is weak, which restricts the live pig market. Prices may fluctuate, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [5] Group 3: Corn Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell back. The C2509 contract closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - The national average corn spot price was 2,407.84 yuan/ton, up 2.84 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] Port Prices - As of July 25, in Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 - 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [6] Industrial Consumption and Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week [7] - The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 36,300 tons from the previous week; the weekly corn starch output was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 45.46% [7] - The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 38.63%, up 0.29% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 78,620 tons, an increase of 590 tons from the previous week [7] - As of July 23, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [7] - As of July 25, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.18 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 950,000 tons [7] Market Outlook - The national corn spot market stopped falling and rose slightly last week. After continuous grain sales and a decrease in imported corn auctions, traders were reluctant to sell, and enterprise purchase prices mainly increased [8] - Corn starch enterprises are entering the summer maintenance stage, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a continuous decrease in corn consumption. Feed enterprises are digesting previous inventories, and their demand for corn procurement is relatively weak [8] - Overall, trader inventories have decreased significantly, the overall shipment pace has slowed down, market supply has decreased, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. However, considering the limited restocking demand of downstream enterprises, corn prices are expected to stabilize, and the rebound space of the futures is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that corn futures have shown slight upward movement, with a closing price of 2311 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 0.26% [1] - The trading volume for corn futures decreased by 215,569 contracts compared to the previous week, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] - Argentina's corn sales have slowed down, with 23.16 million tons sold as of July 16, which is lower than the previous year's sales of 25.31 million tons [2] Group 2 - The USDA reported that approximately 9% of U.S. corn planting areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week but higher than 4% from the same time last year [2] - Short-term market dynamics show both support and pressure for corn prices, with ongoing imports and limited upward momentum in the futures market [3] - Long-term projections suggest that domestic supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitution effects, but price increases may be limited by policy grain releases and competition from wheat [3][4] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a tightening supply situation due to reduced willingness to sell and ongoing consumption of stocks, which supports current prices [4] - The price gap between corn and wheat remains high, leading to increased demand for wheat and limiting corn's market potential [4] - Overall, the market is expected to face a supply-demand tug-of-war in the short term, with a cautious approach recommended for trading strategies [4]