2025 年 8 月 25 日 研 究 鸡蛋：近端关注淘鸡节奏，远端情绪仍偏弱 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 2,920 | -0.21 | | -22,993 | -10,271 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,434 | -0.67 | | 2,423 | 7,456 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | -113 | | -131 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -514 | | -558 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.30 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.64 | | 2.64 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.00 | | 3.10 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the egg market is weak, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,259 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.36% and a trading volume decrease of 1,695 and an open interest decrease of 11,879. The closing price of egg2510 is 3,298 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.96% and a trading volume increase of 36,432 and an open interest increase of 21,483 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -263, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is -39, compared to -299 and -82 of the previous day respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.93 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 3.71 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, down from 2,368 yuan/ton of the previous day. The soybean meal spot price is 2,890 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The live pig price in Henan is 14.33 yuan/kg, up from 13.93 yuan/kg of the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish outlook, and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly report on live pigs and corn from July 22 - 28, 2025, published by Caida Futures [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the live pig futures rose significantly and then fell back. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - As of July 25, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig breeding profit was 62.16 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.73 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 52.73 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 [5] Price Trend and Policy Impact - The national live pig spot price rose first and then fell last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the typhoon, the breeding side reduced supply and resisted price cuts. As the weather impact weakened, group enterprises increased their slaughter, and terminal demand was weak, causing the price to decline slightly [5] - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry, proposing to implement capacity control measures, reduce the number of breeding sows, and control fat pig slaughter weight. This news boosted the live pig futures to break through 15,000, reaching a new high for the year [5] Short - term Outlook - In the short term, farms have completed their slaughter plans well, but demand is weak, which restricts the live pig market. Prices may fluctuate, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [5] Group 3: Corn Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell back. The C2509 contract closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - The national average corn spot price was 2,407.84 yuan/ton, up 2.84 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] Port Prices - As of July 25, in Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 - 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [6] Industrial Consumption and Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week [7] - The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 36,300 tons from the previous week; the weekly corn starch output was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 45.46% [7] - The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 38.63%, up 0.29% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 78,620 tons, an increase of 590 tons from the previous week [7] - As of July 23, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [7] - As of July 25, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.18 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 950,000 tons [7] Market Outlook - The national corn spot market stopped falling and rose slightly last week. After continuous grain sales and a decrease in imported corn auctions, traders were reluctant to sell, and enterprise purchase prices mainly increased [8] - Corn starch enterprises are entering the summer maintenance stage, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a continuous decrease in corn consumption. Feed enterprises are digesting previous inventories, and their demand for corn procurement is relatively weak [8] - Overall, trader inventories have decreased significantly, the overall shipment pace has slowed down, market supply has decreased, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. However, considering the limited restocking demand of downstream enterprises, corn prices are expected to stabilize, and the rebound space of the futures is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that corn futures have shown slight upward movement, with a closing price of 2311 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 0.26% [1] - The trading volume for corn futures decreased by 215,569 contracts compared to the previous week, indicating a reduction in market activity [1] - Argentina's corn sales have slowed down, with 23.16 million tons sold as of July 16, which is lower than the previous year's sales of 25.31 million tons [2] Group 2 - The USDA reported that approximately 9% of U.S. corn planting areas are affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week but higher than 4% from the same time last year [2] - Short-term market dynamics show both support and pressure for corn prices, with ongoing imports and limited upward momentum in the futures market [3] - Long-term projections suggest that domestic supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitution effects, but price increases may be limited by policy grain releases and competition from wheat [3][4] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a tightening supply situation due to reduced willingness to sell and ongoing consumption of stocks, which supports current prices [4] - The price gap between corn and wheat remains high, leading to increased demand for wheat and limiting corn's market potential [4] - Overall, the market is expected to face a supply-demand tug-of-war in the short term, with a cautious approach recommended for trading strategies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of the live hog market is insufficient, and the corn futures price has broken through the support level and declined. The live hog price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, while the corn price will experience a high - level correction and the futures price will continue to seek support downward [3][5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Live Hogs - Futures: Last week, the live hog futures fluctuated within a range. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg week - on - week. As of July 11, the self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 6.28, up 0.05 week - on - week [5] - Market situation: The national live hog spot market showed a pattern of stability in the north and decline in the south last week, with prices rising first and then falling. Currently, local rainfall affects live hog transportation and some second - fattening is still entering the market, but as farms gradually resume normal slaughter in the middle of the month and terminal demand is insufficient in high - temperature weather, the market lacks substantial positive factors. The short - term supply - demand game will continue, and the live hog price is expected to remain volatile [5] Corn - Futures: Last week, the corn futures broke through the support level and declined. The C2509 contract closed at 2,306 yuan/ton, down 2.21% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, down 14.7 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also declined [6] - Industrial consumption: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, down 18,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 536,700 tons, down 8,000 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, down 5,500 tons from the previous week. The DDGS industry's operating rate was 42.96%, down 1.92% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 87,430 tons, down 4.27% from the previous week [7] - Inventory: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88%. As of July 11, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.56 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 890,000 tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot price fell from a high level last week. The auction of imported corn cooled down, and the grain - holding entities accelerated their shipments. The market's bullish sentiment weakened, and the enterprise purchase price was stable to weak. The deep - processing profit continued to be in the red, the downstream industry's operating rate remained low, and the wheat substitution effect continued, resulting in a decline in corn's feed demand. In the short term, the corn price will correct from a high level, and the futures price will continue to seek support downward [8][9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The expectation of a rebound in the egg market during the peak season has been fulfilled [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,442 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and a trading volume change of -70,386 and an open interest change of -28,472; the closing price of egg2510 is 3,376 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.42%, and a trading volume change of -2,996 and an open interest change of 253 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -138, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is 66 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.40 yuan/jin, 2.44 yuan/jin, 2.50 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively; the corn and soybean meal spot prices are 2,370 yuan/ton and 2,830 yuan/ton respectively; the pig price in Henan is 14.83 yuan/kg [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of values from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

Report Summary Core View - The report suggests laying out short positions for far - month contracts of eggs [1] Key Points from Different Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,821 with a daily increase of 0.39%, trading volume up by 23,556 and open interest down by 24,067; the closing price of egg2509 is 3,689 with a daily increase of 0.68%, trading volume up by 24,726 and open interest up by 13,625 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 745 (previous day: - 740), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 868 (previous day: - 870) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In different regions, the latest spot prices are as follows: 2.60 yuan/jin in Liaoning (previous day: 2.90), 2.53 yuan/jin in Hebei (previous day: 2.56), 2.70 yuan/jin in Shanxi (previous day: 2.90), 2.93 yuan/jin in Hubei (previous day: 3.00) [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The latest corn spot price is 2,339 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,313), the latest soybean meal spot price is 2,820 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,860), and the latest pig price in Henan is 14.98 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.93) [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers within [- 2,2] where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The far - month outlook for eggs is weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,857 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 3.28%, a trading volume decrease of 3,008, and an open interest decrease of 1,336; for egg2509, the closing price is 3,630 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.98%, a trading volume increase of 9,781, and an open interest increase of 11,347 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 712 (previous day: - 682), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 773 (previous day: - 726) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In terms of egg spot prices, the price in Liaoning is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Hebei, it is 2.60 yuan/jin (previous day: 2.62 yuan/jin); in Shanxi, it is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hubei, it is 3.09 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.07 yuan/jin). Corn spot price is 2,310 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,313 yuan/ton), and the soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,940 yuan/ton). The pig price in Henan is 14.63 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.43 yuan/kg) [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the hog and corn markets by Caida Futures, dated May 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hog price is expected to remain weakly stable, with supply likely to increase and consumption support insufficient [5] - The corn market may experience a short - term high - level adjustment, with limited upside space and weakening upward momentum [7] Summary by Category Hog Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures contract LH2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous week. The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of May 9, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan/head week - on - week. The pig - grain ratio was 6.44, down 0.15 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The hog spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. After the holiday, the supply of standard hogs from small farmers was limited, and the large - scale farms did not increase their slaughter volume. However, the downstream demand declined. The market supply - demand game continued. The sentiment of resistance to selling at a low price among farmers remained, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased, and the consumption support was insufficient. The supply is expected to increase in the future [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures contract C2507 closed at 2,375 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The national average spot price of corn was 2,363.53 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - **Industrial Consumption**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2197 million tons of corn, down 21,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 636,700 tons, up 11,900 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output of corn starch was 325,500 tons. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 41.22%, down 4.12% from the previous week, and the weekly production of DDGS was 83,880 tons, down 9.10% [6] - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.946 million tons, with a decrease of 5.18%. As of May 9, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 4.25 million tons, and the corn inventory in the Guangdong port was 1.53 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The corn spot market was strong. In the Northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level was almost exhausted, and the auction of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had obvious premium. In the North China, the arrival volume of corn at the deep - processing plants was low, and the purchase price increased significantly. The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise, but the high price of raw materials might limit the production enthusiasm. The operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the rising space of corn will be limited by the need to clear warehouses for new wheat [7]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, stating that the negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, and it is waiting for the confirmation from the culling of laying hens. The trend intensity is rated as 0, indicating a neutral view [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg 2507 is 2,833 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the trading volume decreased by 62,198 and the open interest decreased by 10,284. The closing price of egg 2509 is 3,655 yuan/500 kilograms with a daily decrease of 0.49%, and the trading volume decreased by 22,386 while the open interest increased by 5,704 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 680 (previous day: - 678), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 822 (previous day: - 837) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.70 yuan/jin, 2.56 yuan/jin, 2.80 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively. The spot prices of corn and soybean meal are 2,303 yuan/ton and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively. The price of live pigs in Henan is 14.08 yuan/kg [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), indicating a neutral view on the market [1].