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国信期货玉米周报:暂时进入平衡状态,有待新变量指引-20260320
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 09:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the spot price of corn was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in the Northeast and a stronger trend in Shandong, leading to a wider price gap between Shandong and the Northeast Futures fluctuated, dropping significantly on Friday due to increased auction of government - supported wheat but quickly recovering the losses The basis remained stable with little change week - on - week The current social inventory level is not high, which supports corn prices, but substitution factors limit the upside potential It is expected that corn prices will fluctuate, waiting for new variables to break the balance The recommended operation is to wait and see [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Analysis and Outlook 3.1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided in the content 3.1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - In the past week, the spot price of corn was mainly stable, with slight adjustments in the Northeast and a stronger trend in Shandong [7] 3.1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread - The price gap between Shandong and the Northeast widened [7] 3.1.4 Corn Selling Progress - This week, the grass - roots grain selling progress reached 78%, with only 20% of the remaining grain [7] 3.1.5 Corn Import - Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but substitute grains increased However, on an annual basis, the impact of imported grains is limited [7] 3.1.6 Feed and Livestock Demand - The domestic livestock and poultry inventory scale remained at a high level, and the short - term feed demand was resilient With the overall deterioration of pig profits, the pace of capacity reduction is expected to speed up in the future, and the long - term feed demand is pessimistic [7] 3.1.7 Feed and Livestock Demand: Feed Production - Not provided in the content 3.1.8 Deep - processing Demand - The deep - processing operating rate remained at a relatively low level This week, the starch profit recovered significantly, which was conducive to boosting the future deep - processing demand [7] 3.1.9 Substitutes - Recently, the price difference between wheat and corn dropped significantly, increasing the substitution of feed wheat for corn The government also increased the supply of government - supported wheat, and the suppression of wheat prices on the upside of corn prices increased [7] 3.1.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - The inventory at the northern ports increased, but the absolute level was still low [7] 3.1.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - The inventory at the southern ports decreased slightly [7] 3.1.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided in the content 3.2 Domestic Corn Starch Market Dynamics 3.2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided in the content 3.2.2 Corn Starch Spot - Not provided in the content 3.2.3 Corn - Starch Spread - Not provided in the content 3.2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided in the content 3.2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided in the content 3.2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided in the content 3.3 International Corn Market Dynamics 3.3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided in the content 3.3.2 US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not provided in the content 3.3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided in the content 3.3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided in the content