Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Without significant policy and weather changes, under the expectation of new - season corn selling pressure and decreased planting costs, C01 is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Pay attention to the inventory - building rhythm of traders and policy changes. After the selling pressure of new grains is further realized, C09 can be selectively bought at low prices [1]. - Global major corn - exporting countries' corn inventory - to - consumption ratios are rising. In the 2025/26 season, the US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio is raised from 8.65% in the 2024/25 season to 13.14%, and that of the world's major corn - exporting countries is raised from 7.71% to 9.73% [5][130]. - The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the planting cost is decreasing. The national planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year, but due to suitable weather during the planting period, the yield per unit is expected to significantly increase year - on - year. The new - season corn collection and port cost is expected to further drop to around 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [5][130]. - In the 24/25 season, domestic grain imports significantly decreased. Pay attention to policy changes in the 25/26 season [5][130]. - The inventory at the northern ports is at a low level, and the north - south trade profit is expected to recover. As the supply of old grains is coming to an end and new grains have not been widely listed, the corn inventory at the northern ports has gradually decreased to a low level, and the corn inventory at the southern ports has also decreased. After the inventory at the southern ports is digested, there is an expected demand for the outflow of grain sources from the Northeast, and the north - south trade price difference is expected to gradually recover [5][131]. - In 2025, the feed demand supports corn consumption. Pay attention to the capacity reduction situation in the breeding sector. From the perspective of the number of fertile sows and body weight, the current capacity reduction is not obvious. It is expected that the pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until February 2026, and poultry is expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting the feed demand. Feed enterprises' inventory levels have dropped to a low level, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [5][131]. - The deep - processing demand has decreased. Pay attention to the peak - season consumption. This year, the deep - processing corn consumption has significantly decreased compared with last year. Deep - processing enterprises have a deep loss in processing profit and have adopted a strategy of reducing the operation rate and waiting for inventory digestion. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation during the starch consumption peak season. The raw - material corn inventory level has dropped to a low level, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [5][131]. - The wheat - corn price difference is gradually moving out of the substitution range. As new - season corn is gradually listed, the wheat - corn price difference is gradually moving out of the substitution range. Recently, wheat procurement and storage have been continuously strengthened. Some areas in North China with excessive corn mycotoxins still have a willingness to purchase wheat, which supports the wheat price to a certain extent. Pay attention to the spot trend of wheat after the wheat procurement - support policy ends at the end of September [5][131]. - Pay attention to the procurement and storage policy. The procurement and storage policy is expected to boost the corn price during the grain - selling period. Pay attention to the release time and procurement price of the procurement and storage announcement in the 25/26 season [5][132]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 CBOT Corn Market Review - From January to late February 2025, the USDA January supply - demand report significantly lowered the yield per unit of US corn in the 2024/25 season, tightening the supply - demand of old grains and raising the price center of US corn. Drought in South America and international trade policies affected the market, causing the CBOT to oscillate upwards [6]. - From late February to the end of March 2025, the low soybean - corn price ratio led to an expectation of an increase in the planting area of new - season US corn. The sowing season in the US and improved weather in South America, along with international trade tensions, caused the CBOT to decline under pressure [6]. - From the end of March to mid - April 2025, rainfall in US corn - producing areas delayed the sowing progress. Trump's suspension of tariff measures on most countries except China led to a phased rebound in the CBOT [6]. - From mid - April to mid - August 2025, suitable weather during the growth period of US corn, an increase in the planting area, and an expectation of a loose global grain market supply - demand in the 25/26 season caused the US corn price to decline under pressure [6]. - From mid - August to now in 2025, less rainfall in US corn - producing areas affected the yield per unit, but strong export sales at low prices pushed the price to rebound at a low level [7]. 1.2 DCE Corn Market Review - From early January to mid - March 2025, farmers' grain - selling progress advanced, and the purchasing mentality of the middle and lower reaches improved. The futures market had a premium over the spot market under the expectation of the procurement and storage policy [10]. - From mid - March to late June 2025, the impact of the procurement and storage policy gradually diminished. With reduced imports and good demand, the overall supply - demand was expected to tighten, and the market showed a bottom - rising and oscillating - upward trend. Various factors affected the fluctuation rhythm [10]. - From late June to late August 2025, slow inventory reduction at ports, high warehouse - receipt pressure, weak wheat prices, and the substitution of wheat for corn in feed led to insufficient downstream demand support. With suitable growth weather for new grains and an expectation of a bumper harvest and lower planting costs, the market shifted from trading the low carry - over of old grains to trading the high - yield expectation of new grains and declined under pressure [10]. - From late August to early September 2025, the supply of old grains tightened, new grains had not been widely listed, and the inventory at the northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises decreased to a low level. The spot market was relatively strong under the low carry - over of old grains, and rainfall in North China delayed the listing, causing the market to rebound [10]. - From early September to now in 2025, new grains have been gradually listed, the price of deep - processing in the north has been under pressure, and the market has returned to a downward trend due to the expectation of new - grain selling pressure and decreased planting costs [11]. 2. Global Major Exporting Countries' Corn Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios Are Rising - In the 2025/26 season, the global corn production is estimated to be 1.287 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 57.67 million tons, reaching the highest level in history. The US corn production is estimated to be 427 million tons, and the US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio is raised from 8.65% in the 2024/25 season to 13.14%. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of the world's major corn - exporting countries is raised from 7.71% to 9.73%, and the global corn supply is expected to recover [15]. 2.1 US Corn Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Is Raised, and Export Performance Is Good - According to the USDA September supply - demand report, the US corn planting area in the 2025/26 season is further raised to 98.7 million acres, an increase of 8.1 million acres compared with the 2024/25 season. Although the yield per unit is slightly lowered, it is still at a historically high level. As of September 21, the US corn excellent - rate is 66%, at a high level in the same period over the years. The US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 13.14%, an increase of 4.49% compared with the previous year [18][19]. - With the US corn price dropping to a low level, its cost - effectiveness advantage in the international corn market is emerging, and its export performance is good. Mexico and Japan are still the main purchasers of US corn. However, due to Sino - US trade frictions and China's domestic import - restriction policies, the export volume of US corn to China is expected to significantly decrease this year [21]. 2.2 South American Corn Maintains a Bumper - Harvest Expectation - Brazil's total corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 138.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous year. From January to September 2025, Brazil's corn export volume reached 24.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Brazil's first - crop corn is about to enter the sowing season, and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas. Argentina's corn has started sowing, and its planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.8 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, reaching the second - highest level in history [26]. 2.3 Ukraine's Corn Production Recovers - In the 2024/25 season, hot and dry weather led to a reduction in Ukraine's corn production. In the 2025/26 season, Ukraine's corn production is expected to recover. It is estimated to be 32 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons compared with the previous year, and the export volume is estimated to be 25.5 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons compared with the previous year [28][30]. 3. New - Season Corn Bumper - Harvest Expectation and Review of Recent Selling - Pressure Market Conditions - Recently, new - season corn has been gradually listed. The arrival volume of corn at the northern ports and the morning arrival volume of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises have increased. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have significantly reduced prices, and the price decline in North China has slowed down due to rainfall, but it is still expected to be under pressure after the weather clears. Overall, the 2025/26 season's national planting area is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year, but due to suitable weather during the planting period, the yield per unit is expected to significantly increase year - on - year, and the whole country maintains a bumper - harvest expectation. The corn planting cost is expected to further decline, and the new - season corn collection and port cost is expected to further drop to around 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [31][32]. - Reviewing the recent new - season selling - pressure market conditions, in 2023, after trading the tail - end increase of old grains, the market traded the expectation of new - season corn's bumper - harvest selling pressure, and the futures drove the spot price down to the cost range. In 2024, the market started to trade the expectation of new - season corn's bumper - harvest selling pressure in early July, and the corn price significantly dropped below the cost range. In 2025, under the expectation of new - season corn's autumn - harvest selling pressure and decreased planting costs, the corn futures and spot prices have been under pressure since late June. However, it is expected that the market will not significantly drop below the planting cost like last year because traders' inventory - building enthusiasm is expected to increase year - on - year [40]. 4. Import Volume Decreased in the 24/25 Season, Pay Attention to Policy Changes in the 25/26 Season - Since 2019, after the domestic corn reserve inventory was basically depleted, the domestic corn production - demand gap has been supplemented by imported grains and domestic substitute grains. In 2024, China began to restrict the import volume of bonded - area corn and further clarified the control of the import scale of corn, sorghum, and barley. In 2025, major import enterprises were interviewed again to emphasize the control of the later - stage grain import quantity. In the 24/25 season, the domestic import of grains significantly decreased, which promoted the demand to return to domestic grains. From January to August 2025, China's imported corn arrival was only 877,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%; the imported sorghum was 2.9789 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49%; and the imported barley was 6.5907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Under the current Sino - US tariff policy, the import profit of US corn to the southern domestic market is negative, while Brazilian corn has an import profit, with the theoretical import profit of September - shipment corn being about 186 yuan/ton [47]. 5. Northern Port Inventory at a Low Level, North - South Trade Profit Recovering - As the supply of old grains is coming to an end and new grains have not been widely listed, the corn inventory at the northern ports has gradually decreased to a low level, and the corn inventory at the southern ports has also decreased. As of September 12, 2025, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 729,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 216,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 321,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. As of September 19, 2025, the domestic - trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 308,000 tons, a decrease of 293,000 tons compared with the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported sorghum was 374,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared with the previous week; and the imported barley was 905,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons compared with the previous week. After the inventory at the southern ports is digested, there is an expected demand for the outflow of grain sources from the Northeast, and the north - south trade price difference is expected to gradually recover [53]. 6. Feed Demand in 2025 Supports Corn Consumption, Pay Attention to Capacity Reduction in the Breeding Sector - According to the China Feed Industry Association, from January to August 2025, the feed production reached 216.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.92 million tons. Due to the decrease in imported substitute grains, the proportion of corn added in compound feed from January to August this year was generally higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the substitution of domestic wheat, the proportion of corn added decreased from May to August and is expected to continue until September [66]. - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the monthly change in the number of fertile sows in the second half of 2025 is small. As of July 2025, the national number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 0.02%. The de - stocking degree is limited, and no continuous capacity contraction has been formed. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on pig - production capacity regulation on September 16, aiming to reduce the number of fertile sows by 1 million by the end of this year, approximately to around 39.5 million. From the perspective of body weight, the national pig body weight has not decreased significantly, and the current national average slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, still at a high level in the same period over the years. Affected by breeding profits and low feed costs, secondary fattening continues to roll, which hinders the active weight reduction [68]. - From the perspective of pig slaughter volume, the slaughter volume has significantly increased month - by - month in the third quarter, reflecting the recovery of the piglet production capacity in spring. It is estimated from the number of piglet inventories that the pig slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase until February 2026, with a more obvious increase in October. Due to the high pig slaughter volume and body weight, the pig price is under pressure and declining, and the breeding profit is continuously shrinking. If the breeding profit continues to be in deficit for more than a quarter, it may promote enterprises to reduce capacity [69]. - In terms of poultry, the high inventory supports the feed demand. In the short term, meat poultry is expected to maintain a high inventory due to the large number of grandparent - stock introductions and the high inventory of in - production breeding chickens in the early stage. For egg - laying poultry, the inventory increased month - on - month in August, and the previous active replenishment will continue to be reflected in production until the end of the year. Under the expectation of a bumper harvest of new - season corn, feed enterprises have adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the inventory level has significantly dropped to a low level, with limited room for further reduction, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [80][90]. 7. Deep - Processing Demand Decreases, Pay Attention to Peak - Season Consumption - This year, the