· 专题报告 新陈交替，震荡筑底 观点： C01 震荡偏弱 报告日期 2025-09-29 季度报告 若无明显政策和天气变化，新季玉米卖压预期和种植成本下降的情 况下，预期 C01 将震荡筑底，关注贸易商囤粮节奏和政策变化。待新粮 卖压进一步兑现后，C09 可择机逢低多配。 ⚫ 风险提示 天气、政策 往期相关报告 | 1.新陈交替，盘面重回弱势 | | --- | | 2025.09.16 | | 2.新季玉米卖压预期，盘面弱势寻 | | 底 2025.08.25 | | 3.进口玉米拍卖消息冲击，盘面承 | | 压 2025.07.02 | 1 D ⚫ 全球主要出口国玉米库消比回升： 在种植面积上调和高单产预期 下，2025/26 年度美玉米库消比由 2024/25 年度的 8.65%上调至 13.14%；全球主要的玉米出口国库消比由 7.71%上调至 9.73%。 ⚫ 新季玉米预期丰产，种植成本下降：2025/26 年度全国种植面积预 期同比略减，由于种植期天气条件适宜，预期单产水平同比明显 提升，全国整体维持丰产预期。新季玉米集港成本预期进一步下 降至 1950-2100 元/吨附近。目前盘面距离成本线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of corn supply and demand in Heilongjiang, highlighting the low remaining grain levels among farmers and traders, as well as the quality of new corn and planting costs [3][4]. Group 1: Grain Supply Situation - In Heilongjiang's western region, farmers have less than 10% of their grain remaining, while traders hold about 20% [3]. - Specific areas like Daqing and Lindian have relatively abundant grain supplies compared to regions like Kedong and Keshan, which have less [3]. - Overall, the remaining grain levels are significantly lower than last year, with a faster selling pace observed [4]. Group 2: New Grain Quality and Planting Costs - The quality of new corn is reported to be good, with some areas showing even better quality than last year due to favorable weather conditions [3]. - Planting costs have decreased by 20%-30% compared to last year, with land rental prices ranging from 9,000 to 12,000 yuan per mu [3]. Group 3: Trader Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Traders are generally optimistic about future prices, with many holding onto their grain in anticipation of price increases [4]. - The market has seen price increases due to multiple government storage announcements, and the upcoming selling pressure from farmers is expected to be less than anticipated [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions, trader sentiment, and policy changes in the coming months [4]. Group 4: Company Insights - Company A, a comprehensive agricultural enterprise, reports low inventory levels with plans to purchase natural dried grain in March [11]. - Company B, a large deep processing enterprise, has a two-month inventory and is adopting a market-responsive purchasing strategy [13]. - Company C, focused on high-value corn products, notes limited remaining grain and a cautious approach to pricing [16]. Group 5: Regional Variations - Different regions exhibit varying levels of grain supply, with some areas having nearly depleted stocks while others maintain a more substantial inventory [18][28]. - The article highlights the role of drying towers in grain storage, with some having significant remaining stocks while others are nearly empty [25][28]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The article suggests that March and early April will be critical for observing selling pressure and market dynamics as temperatures rise [17]. - The anticipated selling pressure may not meet expectations, potentially leading to a smoother upward price trend if conditions remain favorable [4].