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关注整治“内卷”:整治“内卷”,能源化工有望蓄力
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-20 14:12
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to address "involution" in the refining and coal chemical sectors, focusing on optimizing industrial layout and curbing the disorderly expansion of backward production capacity. It highlights the importance of eliminating inefficient capacity in industries such as refining and steel, while also advocating for scientific assessment of new capacity projects in coal chemical and alumina sectors to prevent blind construction [3][10] - The report indicates that the coal sector is under scrutiny for environmental protection and safety inspections, with a significant reduction in coal imports expected in the coming months. The China Coal Association has called for strict control over the import and use of low-calorie inferior coal to maintain order in coal imports [4][20] Summary by Sections Refining & Coal Chemical - The report discusses the government's initiative to tackle "involution" competition, which includes enhancing local constraints and breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation. It suggests increasing capacity regulation, adjusting refining structures, and promoting the integration and reduction of capacity in the refining sector [10] - The 2025 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference focused on strategies to overcome growth challenges and eliminate "involution" competition, proposing measures such as capacity control and the elimination of backward production capacity [10] Coal Sector - The report notes the launch of the third round of central ecological and environmental protection inspections, emphasizing the need for thorough safety checks in coal mines, particularly in Shanxi province, where recent accidents have raised concerns [15][18] - It highlights a significant decrease in coal import volumes, with a reported 3.337 million tons imported in the latest week, reflecting a 2.6% week-on-week decline and a 43% year-on-year drop. Cumulative imports for the year have decreased by 25.8% [20]