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中国资产暴涨!背后的“推手”是什么?
天天基金网· 2025-10-05 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in Chinese assets and the underlying factors driving this trend, emphasizing the importance of understanding how professional investors evaluate assets compared to amateur investors [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Evaluation - Professional investors focus on future cash flows rather than just asset prices, which distinguishes them from amateur investors who rely on price appreciation [7]. - The article references the cash flow discount model by economist Irving Fisher, highlighting its significance in assessing stocks and bonds [6][9]. Group 2: Comparative Valuation - As of September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index had a dividend yield of 2.48% and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.6, while the Hang Seng Index had a dividend yield of 2.24% and a P/E ratio of 12.3 [9]. - In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a dividend yield of 0.56% and a P/E ratio of 32, and the Nasdaq had a dividend yield of 0.3% with a P/E ratio of 44, indicating that Chinese assets may be undervalued compared to U.S. markets [9][10]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The article notes that leading A-share companies are improving their dividend payout ratios and share buyback activities, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns [9]. - For instance, Kweichow Moutai's dividend payout ratio is projected to increase from 52% in 2020 to 75% in 2024, while Mindray Medical's payout ratio is expected to rise from 45.7% to 65% in the same period [9]. Group 4: Internal Measurement - The article emphasizes the need for investors to establish a scientific measurement perspective when evaluating investments, particularly in light of foreign capital's attitude towards Chinese assets [13]. - It cites Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, which stresses the importance of understanding intrinsic value and future cash flows rather than relying solely on market trends [14][15].