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金信期货日刊-20250704
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 00:32
Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of Goldtrust Futures, dated July 4, 2025, analyzing multiple futures products including glass, stock index, gold, iron ore, soybean oil, etc. [1] Core Views - Glass futures prices rose on July 3, 2025. The key drivers are the production cut expectations of leading domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises starting from July, with a planned 30% collective reduction, expected to reduce the July supply to about 45GW. Also, policy factors and market sentiment contributed to the price increase [3][4]. - For stock index futures, the market sentiment is continuously easing. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [8]. - Gold futures are expected to rise in the long - term. Although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart the upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [12][13]. - Iron ore futures face an over - valuation risk due to the increase in supply, seasonal decline in molten iron production, and the resumption of inventory accumulation at ports. A wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [17]. - Glass futures still await the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. A short - term oscillatory and bullish approach is recommended [20]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate or be bullish in the short - term due to the long - term expectations of US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. However, a short - selling strategy is recommended when the price reaches the previous high pressure zone of 8050 - 8000 [23]. Product - Specific Summaries Glass Futures - Price trend: Continued to rise to a new high on July 3, 2025 [3]. - Drivers: Production cut expectations of leading photovoltaic glass enterprises, policy support, market sentiment, and cost support [4][5]. - Outlook: Still await real estate stimulus or major policies. Short - term oscillatory and bullish [20]. Stock Index Futures - Market sentiment: Continuously easing. - Outlook: Expected to continue to oscillate upward [8]. Gold Futures - Price adjustment: Adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. - Outlook: Long - term bullish, likely to restart the upward trend after reaching an important support level [12][13]. Iron Ore Futures - Market situation: Supply increased, molten iron production declined seasonally, and ports resumed inventory accumulation. - Outlook: High over - valuation risk, wide - range oscillation approach [17]. Soybean Oil Futures - Market factors: Long - term expectations of US biodiesel policy and uncertain Middle - East situation. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation or bullish, short - selling at the previous high pressure zone of 8050 - 8000 [23].