Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in glass futures prices, which rose nearly 3% after a period of decline, raises questions among investors about whether this is a temporary rebound or a sign of a reversal in trend [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The continuous decline in glass futures prices was primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with weak terminal demand persisting throughout the year and failing to meet expectations during the traditional peak season [3]. - As of November 17, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises across the country was only 9.9 days, indicating weak demand [3]. - High inventory levels are a significant factor suppressing prices, with national float glass factory inventories reported at 63.30 million weight boxes, significantly higher than the same period last year [3]. Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices in major production areas have been continuously adjusted downward, with prices in Hubei ranging from 990 to 1040 yuan per ton and in the Shahe area from 1020 to 1080 yuan per ton [4]. - The high inventory and weak demand conditions have made glass futures an attractive option for market shorts, leading to a situation where the 2601 contract experienced increased short positions and subsequent price declines [4]. Factors Influencing Price Rebound - The recent price rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in supply expectations, valuation corrections, and policy anticipations [4]. - Expectations of production line cold repairs in December and an unexpected shutdown of a production line in Hubei have led to speculation about tightening supply, prompting some shorts to cover their positions [4]. - Last week, a production line with a capacity of 600 tons per day underwent cold repairs, resulting in a week-on-week reduction of 0.38 million tons in glass production [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the glass futures market is characterized by significant divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments, with price fluctuations occurring near critical levels [4]. - The upcoming national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21 is expected to release policy signals that could boost market confidence [4]. - Despite the short-term rebound in glass futures prices, many analysts believe this is likely a rebound rather than a reversal, with two core variables to monitor: the extent of supply contraction and the strength of demand recovery [5]. Trading Strategies - The 2601 contract is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting limited downside potential and natural valuation recovery dynamics [5]. - Market participants are advised to consider shifting positions from the 2601 contract to the 2605 contract due to high inventory pressures [6]. - Companies are encouraged to use glass futures to hedge against price volatility and improve liquidity management [6].