Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] Core View - The glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend in oscillations. However, there is a possibility of continued downward pressure after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and the cold - repair situation of production lines [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract oscillated and was slightly bullish during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, and the daily - line MA combination formed a golden cross, indicating a short - term slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, and the support was near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 217,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,924 lots. The intraday high was 1088, the low was 1060, and the closing price was 1087, up 19 yuan/ton or 1.78% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The overall price of the float glass market moved up, but the operations of enterprises in different regions varied. Some enterprises with low inventory raised prices to test the market, while some enterprises made prices negotiable to promote sales. However, downstream operations remained cautious [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 67 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% compared with the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). One glass production line was restarted and ignited this week, but no glass has been produced yet [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% compared with the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, up 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, up 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, down 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for cold - repair of some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further shrink. However, the real - estate development investment and the availability of funds in the real - estate industry have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, so the real - estate demand has not improved. In general, the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support to the market, leading to a rebound in the futures price. But the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may fluctuate. However, there is a possibility of continued pressure and decline in the later period. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情 Review - Futures market: The glass main contract fluctuated intraday, closing with a doji. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing pattern, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart, and the support was near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 176,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 59 lots. The intraday high was 1076, the low was 1054, and the closing price was 1067, down 6 yuan/ton (0.56%) from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: In North China, overall shipments were good, and prices of some specifications were raised; in East China, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream buyers mainly purchased based on rigid demand; in Central China, most enterprises kept prices stable, while a few raised prices, and downstream buyers were rational in purchasing; in South China, most enterprises maintained stable prices, except for a few with large inventories offering discounts [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1010, with a basis of - 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average operating rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There were no production line water - discharges or ignitions this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes (0.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days in terms of conversion were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and the shipments of some enterprises were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions diverged. The executable order days in the south increased slightly, with some orders lasting more than 20 days, while the orders in the north and central regions declined [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for some production lines to undergo cold - repair before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, this month, both real - estate development investment and capital availability continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand. In general, the pre - festival stocking expectations of downstream enterprises and the anti - involution sentiment provide short - term support to the market, but the supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The glass market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply side has an expectation of further contraction, but the real - estate demand has not improved. Pay attention to the trend near the pressure level and subsequent macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened high and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a tightening signal for short - term fluctuations. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support is near the middle track line. The trading volume increased by 322,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 84,061 lots. The intraday high was 1092, the low was 1059, and the closing price was 1087, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.45% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, manufacturers' overall shipments are good due to mid - stream pick - up and pre - holiday stocking; in East China, the trading atmosphere has significantly slowed down, with weak purchasing enthusiasm and a strong wait - and - see atmosphere; in Central China, the situation is okay, with most prices raised by 40, and downstream purchases are rational; in South China, except for individual prices rising by 20, other enterprises remain stable [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1010, and the basis is - 77 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 203,000 heavy boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day compared with the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and individual shipments were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can last for more than 20 days; the orders in the north and central regions have declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still some production line cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further contract. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability this month have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken near the end of the month. A production line in Gansu was restarted and ignited today, and the anti - involution voice emerged again last week, with the sentiment strengthening and the market rebounding. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. First, pay attention to the trend near the pressure level. Subsequently, pay attention to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. Although there is an expectation of further contraction in supply due to long - term losses in glass production lines and cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, the real - estate demand has not improved, and the decline in off - season demand may exceed the supply contraction. The market sentiment has strengthened, leading to a rebound in the market, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level, as well as macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band contracted, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the lower line. The trading volume increased by 17,568 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 18,652 lots. The intraday high was 1070, the low was 1051, and the closing price was 1064, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market was stable, with manufacturers having decent sales and downstream purchases being rational; in East China, the market was dull with mainly rigid - demand purchases, and some manufacturers offered discounts, with a general trading atmosphere; in Central China, there were few changes, with cautious purchases and stable prices; in South China, overall transactions were good, and some prices were increased [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1010, and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry's average opening rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - tapping or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous period. This week, the downstream's purchasing sentiment was average, and some areas were affected by the weather with weak sales, resulting in an overall inventory increase [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the deep - processing orders in the north and south regions showed different trends. The executable days of southern orders increased slightly, and some orders could last for more than 20 days, while the orders in the northern and central regions declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further supply contraction. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data is still deteriorating, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there is still an expectation of cold - repair for a few production lines, the supply contraction may not be able to offset the decline in off - season demand. The anti - involution sentiment has strengthened, leading to a market rebound. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that glass prices may remain weakly oscillating in the short - term, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rebounds. It attributes this to the potential contraction of supply due to some production lines' cold - repair plans, but the demand decline in the real - estate sector is expected to be more significant, with the contraction of production capacity possibly falling short of the demand drop. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货市场**：The glass futures main contract oscillated downward during the day, showing a short - term weakly oscillating signal. The trading volume decreased by 7.1 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 6,499 lots. The intraday high was 1,072, the low was 1,055, and the closing price was 1,056, down 34 yuan/ton or 3.12% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **现货市场**：The market in North China was sluggish with weak transactions; in East China, it was stable, with improved shipments in Shandong but restricted shipments in Anhui due to snow; in Central China, there was little fluctuation and weak shipments due to weather; in South China, it was stable, with downstream rush - work but average inventory - stocking willingness [1]. - **基差**：The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of - 36 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **供应方面**：As of January 15, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.0523 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, but one previously ignited production line started producing glass, and with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2]. - **库存方面**：The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and there is still an expectation of further decline [2]. - **需求方面**：The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions are diverging, with an increase in the executable order days in the south and a decline in the north and central regions [2][3]. - **利润方面**：The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3]. Main Logic Summary The long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, the real - estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, and the real - estate demand has not improved. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, glass factory orders are limited, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there are still cold - repair expectations for a few production lines, the contraction of production capacity may be less than the decline in demand. It is advisable to short on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The glass futures market is likely to continue oscillating in a relatively low - level range due to insufficient long - and short - term drivers. The core contradiction in the market is the game between "rising cold - repair expectations" and "the reality of high inventory." In the short term, prices may continue to oscillate within a range, and in the medium term, they are still restricted by weak terminal demand and slow inventory depletion [2][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Glass futures prices fell near the previous low. With the expectation of production cuts, short - position main players actively reduced their positions last week. From December 24th (Wednesday) to Friday, prices rebounded slightly, rising from a minimum of 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday to 1057 yuan/ton at Friday's close [2]. 2. Weekly Position Changes - As of December 26th (last Friday), the long - position of the 2605 contract was 609,514 lots, an increase of 6,210 lots compared to the previous week; the short - position was 792,345 lots, an increase of 466 lots compared to the previous week [5]. 3. Spot Market - In the traditional off - season, terminal demand is weak, and recent enterprise shipments are sluggish. As of December 25th, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 65,000 heavy boxes. South China and East China had better inventory reduction, while North China and Central China had a slight inventory increase. A production line in Dongguan, Guangdong with a daily output of 900 tons was shut down for cold repair on December 24th. The glass supply has decreased, and the previous centralized cold - repair of production lines has improved the supply - demand situation to some extent, but the weak demand remains the current keynote [6]. 4. Production Profit Changes - From December 19th to December 25th, the weekly average profit of natural - gas glass was - 186.4 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 21.88 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 14.26 yuan/ton compared to the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 7.21 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 7.14 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7]. 5. Market Outlook - From December 22nd to December 26th, the main contract of glass futures rebounded moderately in oscillation, but the spot market was under continuous pressure, and the divergence between futures and spot prices intensified. The short - term price may continue to oscillate within a range, and the medium - term is still restricted by weak terminal demand and slow inventory depletion [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term volatility" [1] Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of glass may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band in the short term. Future focus should be on macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a volatile signal. The trading volume increased by 615,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,426 lots. The intraday high was 1,066, the low was 1,026, and the closing price was 1,057, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions were flexible with narrow price fluctuations, and some small - plate prices declined. In the Central and East China markets, there were few changes, and enterprises mainly sold at stable prices. In the Northwest market, trading was light, and some processing plants had sporadic holidays, restricting production and sales. In the Southwest market, prices were temporarily stable, and some enterprises planned to raise prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1,010, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold - repair [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, there were few changes in the central and eastern regions, orders in South China increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days decreasing slightly month - on - month [2] - **Profit**: As of December 25, the profit from natural - gas - based production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - based production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - based production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply - side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the elimination of some enterprises' production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has boosted short - term market sentiment. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real - estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on spot prices. Overall, short - term prices may maintain a volatile trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price of glass may maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as potential production line cold repairs improving the supply - demand situation, but weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass futures main contract opened higher and closed lower, with a weaker intraday trend. The trading volume decreased by 412,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 19,672 lots. The intraday high was 1,059, the low was 1,042, and the closing price was 1,047, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: In the North China market, the trading was average, and some prices declined with increased market wait - and - see sentiment; in the Central China market, the prices were stable with some enterprises' quotes loosening; in the East China market, the procurement was rational with a large proportion of rigid demand and stable prices; in the South China market, the transactions were good, and producers mostly maintained stable prices; in the Southwest market, the transactions slightly improved, while in the Northwest and Northeast markets, the demand was weak, the shipment speed slowed down, and the average price decreased [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1,010, and the basis was - 37 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the 18th. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong was shut down for cold repair yesterday, with a designed daily capacity of 900 tons, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repairs [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - Demand: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, the overall situation in the central and eastern regions changed little, the orders in South China still increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days slightly declining month - on - month [2] - Profit: As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply: Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the production capacity clearance of some enterprises. Under the influence of factors such as the expectation of macro - level reserve requirement ratio cuts, anti - involution sentiment, and the expectation of supply decline, there may be short - term support [4] - Demand: The real estate development investment and the funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, the completion and new construction are weak, and the real estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on the spot price [4] - Outlook: Although the cold repair of production lines may improve the supply - demand pattern in the short term, the terminal is weak, the inventory accumulates, and there is insufficient upward driving force. The short - term price may maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in macro - policies and the situation of production line cold repairs [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Glass Report - In November, multiple glass production lines in China were shut down for maintenance, reducing the daily melting volume by 6,050 tons (equivalent to about 121,000 heavy boxes). However, this did not support glass prices. Market anticipation had been digested, and high inventory led to price - suppressing promotional strategies. The glass market is undervalued, but the real - estate sector's downward pressure persists. Without unexpected changes, a bearish approach to the glass market is recommended [12][13] Soda Ash Report - In November, the soda ash industry's overall operating rate was stable, with high supply pressure. Demand was weak, with downstream enterprises purchasing on - demand and having low acceptance of new quotes. Heavy soda demand was affected by the expected cold - repair of float glass production lines. Due to cost support and industry - wide losses, the decline in spot prices is limited. The upcoming 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project in December may pressure the market. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate weakly, and a cautious and bearish approach is recommended [56][57] 3. Summary by Directory Glass Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the main contract closed at 1,010 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the basis was 60 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton week - on - week). The weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton). National float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). National float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [12] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread was - 122 yuan/ton (- 10), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (- 3), the 09 - 01 spread was 181 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [20] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit for producing float glass with natural gas was - 223 yuan/ton (up 4.27 yuan/ton), and the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton). The weekly average profit with coal was 6.52 yuan/ton (up 2.02 yuan/ton), and with petroleum coke was 21.36 yuan/ton (up 52.84 yuan/ton) [26][29] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass weekly production was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The downstream deep - processing orders were 10.1 days (up 0.2 days), and the Low - e glass operating rate was 45.40% (down 1.10%). From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters (down 6.80% year - on - year), and in October, it was 61.4721 million square meters (down 19.60% year - on - year). In October, automobile production and sales were 3.3587 million and 3.3221 million vehicles respectively (up 12.09% and 8.82% year - on - year), and from January to October, cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles [33][36][39][42] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, national float glass factory inventory was 59.442 million heavy boxes (down 2.92 million), and Shahe area inventory was 3.6488 million heavy boxes (down 0.5976 million) [46] Soda Ash Report Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 5, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda in Shahe was 1,132 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), the main contract closed at 1,162 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton), and the basis was - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton). The weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons. The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days) [56] Futures and Spot Market - As of December 5, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (- 22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 60 yuan/ton (+ 9), the 09 - 01 spread was 137 yuan/ton (+ 13), and the open interest was 1.9027 million lots [64] Profit and Cost - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 148.5 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton), and that of the combined - soda process was - 178.5 yuan/ton (up 41.5 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 809 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), the price of raw salt in the Northwest was 215 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,345 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan/ton) [71][74][77] Supply and Demand - As of December 5, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons), with a capacity utilization rate of 80.74%. Heavy soda production was 38.15 tons (down 0.16 tons), and light soda production was 32.24 tons (up 0.73 tons). The weekly production of float glass was 108.51 tons (down 1.88 tons), with 218 operating lines (down 2) and an operating rate of 73.63%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in October was 3.13 million tons [81][84][87] Inventory - As of December 5, 2025, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5386 million tons (down 0.0488 million tons), and the inventory - available days were 12.76 days (down 0.40 days). Heavy soda factory inventory was 81.08 tons (down 3.60 tons), and light soda factory inventory was 72.78 tons (down 1.28 tons) [91][94]