1:玻璃主力合约日线 数据来源:国金期货行情软件 2 周持仓变化 成文日期: 20251230 报告周期:周报 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) E 隱 間 报 1 期货市场 玻璃期货价格跌至前低附近后,叠加减产预期,上周空头主力 主动减仓离场，从 12 月 24 日（周三）开始至周五连续三天小幅反 弹,价格从周二最低 1017 元/吨反弹至周五收盘 1057 元/吨,目前 玻璃多空驱动不足，期货行情或将延续相对低部区间震荡。 IVALUI 2605 合约截止 12 月 26 日（上周五），多单持仓 609514 手, 同上周增加 6210 手; 空单持仓 792345 手, 同上周增加 466 手｡ 3 现货市场 随着玻璃价格不断下行，上周三种燃料的生产利润均为负。12 月 19 日—12 月 25 日期间，天然气玻璃周均利润-186.4 元/吨，同上 周亏损增加 5 元/吨;煤制气浮法玻璃周均利润-21.88 元/吨,同上周 亏损增加 14.26 元/吨;石油焦浮法玻璃周均利润-7.21 元/吨,同上 周环比亏损增加 7.14 元/吨。 5 行情 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开高走，日内偏强。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 偏震荡信号，短线关注上轨线附近压力。成交量较昨日增 61.5 万手，持仓量较 昨日增 9426 手；日内最高 1066，最低 1026，收盘 1057，（较昨日结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.67%。 2，现货市场：华北市场成交灵活，价格窄幅波动，部分小板价格下跌；华 中、华东市场变化不大，企业多稳价出货；西北市场交投偏淡，加工厂零星放假， 产销受限；西南市场价格暂稳，个别企业存提涨计划。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1010，基差-47 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 利润方面，据隆众资讯统计，截止 12 月 25 日，天然气制利润-186.4（环比 -5 元/吨）、石油焦利润-7.2 元/吨（环比-7.14 元/吨）、煤制气利润-21.88 元/吨（环比-14.26 元/吨）。 三、主要逻辑总结 供应方面以天然气为燃料的产线长期亏损，以煤炭、石油焦为燃料的产线也 处于亏损状态，可能会加速部分企业产能出清。今日工信部再提整治"内卷式" 竞争 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 库存方面，样本企业总库存 5862.3 万重箱，环比+6.5 万重箱，环比+0.11%， 同比+29.63%。折库存天数 26.5 天，较上期持平。 需求方面，1-11 月份，全国房地产开发投资 78591 亿元，同比下降 15.9%； 其中，住宅投资 60432 亿元，下降 15.0%；1-11 月份，房地产开发企业到位资金 85145 亿元，同比下降 11.9%。全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值 9.7 天，环比 -4.2%，同比-22.6%。北部区域深加工订单环比继续下滑，中部及东部整体变化 不大，华南订单环比仍适度增加，西南区域内增降并存，订单均值环比小幅下滑。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 全国深加工样本企业散单仍集中在 3-7 天，部分工程类订单排期缩短至 15-20 天。 1，期货市场：玻璃主力高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。成交量较昨日减 41.2 万手，持仓量较昨日减 19672 手；日内最高 1059，最低 1042，收盘 1047，（ ...

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 多条产线冷修， 供需矛盾有所缓解 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/12/05 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 价格：截至2025/12/05，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1070元/吨，环比持平；玻璃主力合约收盘报1010元/吨，环比-31元/吨；基差60元/吨，环 比上周+31元/吨。 成本利润：截至2025/12/05，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-223元/吨，环比+4.27元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价4150元/吨，环 比-100元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in glass futures prices, which rose nearly 3% after a period of decline, raises questions among investors about whether this is a temporary rebound or a sign of a reversal in trend [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The continuous decline in glass futures prices was primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with weak terminal demand persisting throughout the year and failing to meet expectations during the traditional peak season [3]. - As of November 17, the average order days for deep processing sample enterprises across the country was only 9.9 days, indicating weak demand [3]. - High inventory levels are a significant factor suppressing prices, with national float glass factory inventories reported at 63.30 million weight boxes, significantly higher than the same period last year [3]. Market Conditions - In the spot market, prices in major production areas have been continuously adjusted downward, with prices in Hubei ranging from 990 to 1040 yuan per ton and in the Shahe area from 1020 to 1080 yuan per ton [4]. - The high inventory and weak demand conditions have made glass futures an attractive option for market shorts, leading to a situation where the 2601 contract experienced increased short positions and subsequent price declines [4]. Factors Influencing Price Rebound - The recent price rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in supply expectations, valuation corrections, and policy anticipations [4]. - Expectations of production line cold repairs in December and an unexpected shutdown of a production line in Hubei have led to speculation about tightening supply, prompting some shorts to cover their positions [4]. - Last week, a production line with a capacity of 600 tons per day underwent cold repairs, resulting in a week-on-week reduction of 0.38 million tons in glass production [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the glass futures market is characterized by significant divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments, with price fluctuations occurring near critical levels [4]. - The upcoming national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21 is expected to release policy signals that could boost market confidence [4]. - Despite the short-term rebound in glass futures prices, many analysts believe this is likely a rebound rather than a reversal, with two core variables to monitor: the extent of supply contraction and the strength of demand recovery [5]. Trading Strategies - The 2601 contract is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting limited downside potential and natural valuation recovery dynamics [5]. - Market participants are advised to consider shifting positions from the 2601 contract to the 2605 contract due to high inventory pressures [6]. - Companies are encouraged to use glass futures to hedge against price volatility and improve liquidity management [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.10.20 [1] - Author: Shen Wen [2] - Report Source: Research and Consulting Department of Zhongyuan Futures [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views 2.1 Soda Ash - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable. Supply decreased due to maintenance, but is expected to increase as previously maintained units resume production. Demand is weak, with some enterprises having poor shipping and a slight accumulation of alkali plant inventory. High supply and inventory strongly suppress soda ash prices, and the futures price continues to fluctuate weakly. In the medium to long term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand under the pattern of new capacity release. Opportunities for shorting on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass fluctuated. The overall supply was stable, while demand was weak, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. The futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair dynamics of production lines under the condition of profit losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%. The weekly output was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.03 tons. Light soda ash output was 32.50 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons, and heavy soda ash output was 41.55 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash was 69.98 tons, a decrease of 1.11 tons. Light soda ash demand was 30.43 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons, and heavy soda ash demand was 39.55 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons [5]. - Inventory: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the 9th. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [6]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2% [6]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price - As of October 16, 2025, in the central China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 120 yuan/ton. In the northern China region, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and the market price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures price was weak, and the glass futures price dropped significantly [11][14]. 3.2.2 Price Difference - As of October 16, 2025, the 1 - 5 price difference of soda ash was - 90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price difference of glass was - 137 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton; the glass - soda ash arbitrage price difference was 88 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56 yuan/ton [20]. 3.3 Fundamentals 3.3.1 Supply - Soda Ash: The weekly output decreased, but is expected to increase as maintenance units resume production. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased, with the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate at 89.42% (a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%) and the joint - production capacity utilization rate at 75.74% (a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%) [26][35]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. There were 296 glass production lines in total, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired [6]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 170.05 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. Light soda ash inventory was 75.98 tons, an increase of 1.68 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 94.07 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [39]. - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days [51]. 3.3.3 Profitability - Soda Ash: As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of joint - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton [54]. - Glass: The report provides cost and profit data for float glass production using coal and natural gas as fuels, but specific analysis is not given [55][56][57][58].