Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has declined for the second consecutive trading day, influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) indicates a slowdown in inflation, while September retail sales growth was below expectations [2] - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a seven-month low in November, reflecting concerns about the job market [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams suggested the possibility of short-term interest rate cuts without threatening inflation targets [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that the current weakness in the job market could support a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting [2] - Another Fed Governor, Stephen Mihm, expressed similar views, indicating that a significant rate cut is needed to return policy to neutral levels due to ongoing economic weakness [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market reactions have been swift, with futures indicating an approximately 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3] - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its main policy rate at 0.00% for an extended period, potentially until 2027, creating a divergence in policy expectations that pressures the USD/CHF exchange rate [3]