Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip industry is "Oscillating" [5] Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the bottle chip industry remains loose, and the absolute price is dominated by polyester raw materials. Domestic demand growth falls short of expectations this year. Although exports maintain a high - growth rate of over 10%, exports alone cannot digest the supply increment. The previous joint production cuts by bottle chip factories only postponed the inventory pressure rather than fundamentally resolving the supply - demand imbalance. The industry's breakthrough depends on future demand growth [3][65]. - In the fourth quarter, bottle chip demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply side faces the dual pressure of the resumption of previously shut - down devices and the launch of new production capacity, which may lead to a new inventory accumulation phase. The disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton, and the current high - level processing fee lacks sustainable support [3][67]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. 2025 Q3 Bottle Chip Market Review - In the semi - annual report, it was proposed that the joint production cuts by bottle chip factories and the seasonal peak demand might bring about a temporary improvement in supply - demand, but the supply - demand contradiction in the bottle chip industry could not be completely resolved in the short term, and industry profits would likely remain sluggish. The absolute price was driven by the cost side and could not show an independent trend. - In Q3, bottle chip prices continued to be cost - driven, following polyester raw materials up and down twice. The main contract price declined slightly compared to the end of Q2. Bottle chip factories implemented previous production cut decisions, and with the support of rigid demand during the seasonal peak, the bottle chip processing fee mainly showed a mild recovery [12]. 2. Supply: Q4 Bottle Chip Supply May Moderately Increase - In Q3, there was an obvious reduction in the bottle chip supply. From July to August 2025, the total bottle chip output was 2.875 million tons, with the monthly average output 8.7% lower than that in Q2 [15]. - Looking forward to Q4, bottle chip supply may moderately increase compared to Q3, but it is unlikely to reach the Q2 peak again: - The new production capacity in Q4 will contribute limitedly to the actual supply increment this year. There are still plans to launch new production capacity in Q4, but the production release of the 670,000 - ton/year new capacity is mostly concentrated in next year [20]. - The joint production cuts did not achieve the manufacturers' expected results. Although the spot theoretical processing fee improved marginally, the inventory reduction was slow, and the processing interval was still on the verge of loss [21]. - The performance of domestic and foreign sales orders is poor. With the approaching of the seasonal off - season and the lack of new orders, bottle chip factories have little motivation to significantly increase production [26]. 3. Domestic Demand: Growth Below Expectations and Seasonal Weakening in Q4 - In the soft drink industry, the demand is weak. From January to August 2025, the retail sales of beverage - related products only increased by 0.2% year - on - year, much lower than the growth rate of social consumer goods. This is due to the high - base effect in 2024 and the limited impact of policies on beverage consumption. Additionally, lightweight packaging in the beverage industry may offset some bottle chip demand [28]. - In the edible oil sector, from January to August 2025, the cumulative output of edible vegetable oil was 34.054 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3%, and the national catering revenue was 3.648 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, both with slower growth rates compared to last year [36]. - In the sheet material field, the demand for electronic pallets has decreased, but the demand for daily necessities and fresh milk tea packaging has increased. The price war on take - out platforms from April to July boosted the demand for sheet materials. However, looking forward to Q4, with the end of the price war and the drop in temperature, bottle chip domestic demand is expected to weaken [37][42]. 4. Exports: "Involution" Spill - over, Q4 Bottle Chip Exports Expected to Maintain High Growth - In 2025, bottle chip exports increased strongly. From January to August, the export volume of bottle chips under the tariff number 39076110 reached 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In Q3, the overall order - taking of bottle chip factories was poor, and the export volume decreased slightly quarter - on - quarter [45]. - There are ongoing trade frictions overseas, but their impact on the overall export pattern is limited. For example, Malaysia's anti - dumping ruling and Canada's anti - dumping investigation, and the previous anti - dumping in Mexico. However, Wankai's zero - tax rate in Mexico may change the situation of sharply reduced exports to Mexico [47][48]. - Looking forward to Q4, the total bottle chip export volume is still expected to be high: overseas supply growth is limited, the profit space for exports is still higher than that for domestic sales, and the current low export price has attracted more overseas buyers. The monthly average export volume is expected to remain above 500,000 tons, and the annual export volume is expected to exceed 6.5 million tons [55]. 5. Investment Suggestions - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand pattern of the bottle chip industry remains loose, and the absolute price is dominated by polyester raw materials. The industry's breakthrough depends on future demand growth [3][65]. - Strategically, in Q4, the bottle chip market may enter a new inventory accumulation phase, and the disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the disk processing fee when it reaches the upper limit of the range [3][67].