| Million | > 國授期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月09日 | | 尿素 | な☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | な女女 | 苯乙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 频料 | なな女 | | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | なな女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文☆ 丙烯 | | 女女女 | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚 ...

国联期货研究所 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 能源化工|季度报告 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 聚酯产业链 2026 年一季度报告 2026 年 1 月 9 日 需求季节性回落，价格仍将偏强运行 2025.12.12 OPEC 暂停增产 一季度国际油价预期较好 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2025 年，在 OPEC+不断增产原油的政策影响下，WTI 原油价格累计下跌 18.7%。2026 年一季度，OPEC 暂停增产，且处于原油需求传统旺季阶段，预计 国际油价将修复性反弹。若 3 月 OPEC+会议确定于二季度恢复增产原油，那么 国际油价将再次承压。 PTA 开工率偏低 存在提升空间 相关研究报告： 《聚酯产业链月报：油价波 动放缓，产业需求将逐步回 根据卓创资讯的统计，2025 年 PTA 平均开工率为 78.1%，较上一年度下降 4.3 个百分点，12 月下旬 PTA 开工率一度下降至 73.3%，比 2025 年开工率均值 低 4.8 个百分点。PTA 开工率偏低，而需求相对稳定，11 月下旬之后，PTA 社 会库存持续下降，引发 PX ...

2026 年 01 月 09 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260109 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260109 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6472 | 6544 | -72 | PF02-03 | -72 | 12 | -84 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -19 | -2 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 112378 | 116315 | -3937 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 525 | 6,530 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 114060 | 126634 | -12574 | 短纤产销率 | ୧୧% | 74% | -8 ...

2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260109 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明显 | 8 | | PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260109 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：关注地缘扰动 | 21 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘上行，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：轻仓试多02做交割；04空单持 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：商品普涨，牛市将至？ 【市场资讯】1）中国央行连续第 14 个月增持黄金。2）上期所调整白银期货相关合约交 易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。3）特朗普称"美国将代表委内瑞拉销售石油"，中方表态： 中委合作受国际法和两国法律保护。4）美国 12 月 ADP 就业人数增加 4.1 万人，低于市场 预期的中值 4.7 万人。5）美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数上升 1.8 点至 54.4，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下自 2024 年 9 月以来的最大水平。价格上涨 速度降至九个月来的最慢。6）欧元区 2025 年 12 月 CPI 初值放缓至 2%，符合市场预期。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】昨日国内期货市场普遍上涨，行情呈现出清晰的结构性特征，交 投氛围活跃。这不禁引人思考：当前走势是意味着商品市场迈入新阶段，还是阶段性的资 金现象？从宏观环境看，近期明确的"适度宽松"货币政策基调与强调"集成效应"的调控思路， 为市场提供了偏暖的流动性预期；而"保持人民币汇率基本稳定"的导向，在美元偏弱背景 下亦有助于稳定进口成本。然而，若细究昨日普涨的核心动因，资 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2267 | 2293 | -26 | -1.13% | | | MA2609 收盘价 | 2247 | 2240 | 7 | 0.31% | | | MA59价差 | 20 | 53 | -33 | -62.26% | | | 太仓基差 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -525 | -297 | 42 | -14.14% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1848 | 1850 | -3 | -0.14% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2083 | 2103 | -20 | -0.95% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2270 | 2270 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 423 | 420 | 3 | 0.60% | | | ...

2026 年度化工策略-新材料大有可为，"反内卷"下周期 进入右侧 20260107 摘要 锂电材料市场虽有回调，但需求仍可能超预期上涨。玻纤行业与化工行 业逻辑相似，2026 年业绩确定性较高，中国巨石粗纱供给增长低于需 求，中材科技锂电隔膜价格已现拐点。 化工行业资本开支和固定资产投资下降，显示供给端变化较少。化纤类 资产整体供需平衡表向好，氨纶、涤纶、有机硅等品种开工率高。推荐 中游核心资产龙头白马股，如万华化学和华鲁恒升。 期底部的中游核心资产，如万华化学和华鲁恒升等公司。价值主线则主要是资 源品。 锂电材料领域有哪些值得关注的细分市场？ Q&A 过去半个月化工行业的行情表现如何？其核心驱动力是什么？ 过去半个月，化工行业整体行情表现强劲，主要集中在中游核心资产。我们认 为其核心驱动力在于低盈利、低估值和低配置下机构的主动增配机会。此外， 这些中游核心资产相较于 2021 年有显著的产能扩张，即便不考虑乐观的价格 假设，其盈利也有很大的上升空间。 化工和新材料领域的年度策略有哪些核心主线？ 核心资产如万华化学和华鲁恒升，即使不考虑价格上涨，产能扩张也带 来盈利增长空间，中泰证券年度策略聚焦成长（AI、 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：修复动能偏弱 4 | 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 8 日 0 / 48 | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 美豆整体承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价收涨，国内糖价略强 5 | | 油脂板块：商品情绪回暖，油脂有所上涨 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力仍存 现货整体震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：市场情绪好转，钢价震荡走强 13 | | --- | | 双焦：波动剧烈，多单建议逐步止盈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 金银高位震荡 16 | | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权 ...

2026 年 01 月 08 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260108 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260108 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF02-03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6544 | 6532 | 12 | PF03-04 | T | 76 | -80 | | | 短纤2603 | 6548 | 6456 | 92 | PF主力基差 | -14 | 3 | -17 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 116315 | 165849 | -49534 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 530 | 6, 535 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 126634 | ...