| Million | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月26日 | | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | ななな | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 爱两烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★★★ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | なな女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | なな女 | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 ...

融 研 究 院 聚酯产业的供需发展 金 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 期 货 01丨原料端的产能发展情况 02丨下游聚酯的产能发展情况 原料端的产能发展情况 聚酯产业链的产能发展 期 货 金 融 研 究 -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年 聚酯产业链产能增速变化 MEG产能增速 PTA产能增速 聚酯产能增速 PX产能增速 | 业 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 22024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX产能 | 1463 | 2103 | 2603 | 3208 | 3597 | 4367 | 4367 | | PX产能增速 | 0 | 43.75% | 23.78% | 23.24% | 12.13% | 21.41% | 0% | | ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持，多MEG空PX | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 11 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：估值低位反弹 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 23 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：震荡走势延续，短期或强于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：转入调整，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

来源：福能期货 （来源：福能期货） PTA:虽然成本端原油承压,但装置检修市场较预期延长,截至11月20日,PTA负荷为72. 1%。同时, 印度BIS取消提振PTA出口,PTA累库预期扭转,基差走强,加工差回升至200元/吨以上。预计震荡 运行为主。 短纤:上周短纤负荷97.5%,环比持平,库存环比+0.1天至8.7天。需求一般,工厂维稳走货为主, 终端开工基本维持,织机开工小幅降至73%,加弹开工小幅降至87%。目前短纤加工差在1020元/吨 附近,处于中性水平。短纤基本面一般,预计跟随成本运行为主。 瓶片:上周瓶片负荷81.6%,环比+2.2%,库存16.06天,环比-0.21天。虽然目前瓶片加工差维持低 位,在429元/吨附近,但高社会库存与弱需求影响下难有改善。瓶片自身基本面指引有限,短期价 格预计跟随成本震荡。 纯苯:本周纯苯开工率小幅下行,但仍处高位,同时由于炼厂利润尚可,预计未来供应依然偏高。 同时当前下游利润普遍亏损,下游己内酰胺或有集体减产动作,苯乙烯检修量处于较高水平,需求 整体偏弱。供增需减下纯苯持续累积,偏弱震荡为主。 苯乙烯:苯乙烯开工维续下降,环比-0.3%至68.95%。但下游 ...

丙烯期货主力合约日内5日均线上方震荡整理。目前市场缺乏消息面指引，企业报盘延续平稳为主,个别价格小 幅上探。下游工厂按需跟进,偏高交投有所放量,带动实单重心小涨。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内继续下行收跌。聚乙烯检修减少，远洋及近洋船货到港量增加，整体供应压力 增加。需求端棚膜开工高位持续回落过程，包装膜后续订单跟进缓慢，且多数工厂前期已有备货，下跌行情 下,心态多数偏空,采购积极性走弱。聚丙烯供应端暂无新增产能冲击,但存量检修装置预计减少,装置检修 力度减弱,供应预计小幅增加。需求端短期受原料持续偏弱影响,采购积极性受限。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 日内统苯价格延续跌势,国内持续累库为现实压力,华东现货阴跌,山东成交不及上日。美韩价差持续走扩, 市场关注亚洲纯苯流出可能,但美国汽油裂差转弱,且对美出口有运费和关税门槛,持续性或不足。国内到塔 预期偏高,下游需求整体下降,延续反弹偏空思路,可同时考虑期权配置避免超预期上涨。 苯乙烯期货主力合约目内窄幅波动。苯乙烯工厂产出仍有小幅减量预期,下游需求维持良好状态,苯乙烯供需 紧平衡持续，总库存持续回落，对苯乙烯价格形成一定支撑。 | | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

2025 年 11 月 25 日 短纤：短期震荡市，加工费短多 瓶片：短期震荡市，加工费压缩 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2512 | 6190 | 6148 | 42 | PF12-01 | -68 | -50 | -18 | | PF | 短纤2601 | 6258 | 6198 | 60 | PF01-02 | 16 | -22 | 38 | | | 短纤2602 | 6242 | 6220 | 22 | PF主力基差 | 110 | 137 | -27 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 396494 | 415490 | -18996 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 300 | 6. 285 | 15 | | | 短纤主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Core Views - The report offers trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., based on their fundamentals, market news, and price trends [2][4][8] - Each product has a unique trend intensity, which reflects the strength of its market trend [8][12][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Asian PX price rose slightly, PXN reached 260 USD/ton. Suggest to exit long positions, short PXN, go long MEG and short PX. Pay attention to month - spread reverse arbitrage [4][6][8] - **PTA**: Operating rate declined, overall in a tight - balance but with a recent inventory build - up. Valuation is high, recommend exiting long positions [4][8][9] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to contract, the supply - demand balance sheet is improving. Suggest to stop loss on short positions and reverse - arbitrage positions, and go long MEG and short PX [8][9][10] Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The price of natural rubber raw materials remained high due to rain affecting tapping [11][12][14] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to run weakly within the valuation range. The domestic butadiene market is weak, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are bearish [15][16][17] Asphalt - Asphalt's operating rate increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decline. The weekly output increased, and the inventory in both refineries and social warehouses decreased [18][23][24] LLDPE - LLDPE's import offers may decrease, and the cracking load is disturbed. The futures price rebounded slightly, and the basis was gradually repaired. The supply - demand pressure in the medium - term needs attention [25][26] PP - PP should not be shorted in the short - term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit restricts the downward space [29][30][31] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda still faces pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak. The cost support is limited [33][35][36] Pulp - Pulp is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price fluctuated slightly, the basis of some varieties weakened, and the supply pressure persisted while the demand was flat [38][39][41] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price rose, the basis weakened, and the cost support increased, but the processing factory orders were average [44][45] Methanol - Methanol rebounded from a low - valuation level. The price increased with the decline of short positions in the 01 contract. The supply - demand situation is still under pressure in the medium - term [47][49][50] Urea - Urea is expected to have a sideways correction. The price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [51][53][54] Styrene - Styrene is expected to move sideways in the short - term. The pure benzene market is under pressure due to inventory build - up and weak terminal demand. The rebound of styrene is also restricted [55][56] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The production is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly for low - price rigid needs. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term [58][59] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The downstream demand is differentiated, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The futures price fluctuated, and the operating rates of related industries changed slightly [61][62][66] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is weakening, but the cost support is strong. The price difference between propylene and related contracts changed [62][66] PVC - PVC should not be shorted, and it is expected to move in a low - level sideways pattern. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production due to losses, but the impact may be limited in the short - term [69][70] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to move in a narrow range and may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term [72] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is still weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [72] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to have a short - term restorative rebound. The futures price fluctuated, and the freight rate index of European routes increased [74]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-25 俄乌和谈进展影响油⽓，进⼝减量预期 提振甲醇 地缘依旧主导油价波动。此前乌克兰总统泽连斯基的办公厅主任表 示，相关谈判在协调立场方面取得重大进展；美国国务卿也表示，周末在 日内瓦举行的会谈富有成效。市场权衡俄乌和平协议的达成前景。欧洲天 然气期货下跌3%，一年多来首次跌破每兆瓦时30欧元。欧洲防务类股同样 表现不佳。Kpler数据表明，10月下旬以来约有5000万桶俄罗斯原油被囤 积在海上，和平谈判的达成将有助于俄罗斯的原油和成品油供给正常化， 原油将重回疲弱的基本面。关注俄乌和谈的进一步进展。 板块逻辑： 化工周一日盘表现尚可，股市企稳回升对市场情绪有利。甲醇表现最 为亮眼。甲醇12月进口预估减量，其中非伊供应减量明显，部分检修、年 度合约供应结束以及增量发往印度等多重因素影响，集中影响了12月非伊 抵港表现；资讯机构也有报道，伊朗有甲醇企业停车。近两周，内地市场 的强势表现支撑进口货倒流加速，加之浙江另有新下游计划重启备货，共 同助力周一甲醇日盘上涨3%。其他液体化工周度整体累库，纯苯和苯乙烯 当前库存依 ...