Economic Growth Potential - The potential economic growth rate for China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.3% under baseline conditions, and between 5.1% and 5.8% in optimistic scenarios[6] - The average annual growth rate of capital stock is projected to decline to around 5.5%, contributing approximately 2.1 percentage points to GDP growth[11] - Labor force participation is expected to decrease, with the working-age population projected to drop to approximately 805 million by 2030, resulting in an annual reduction of about 4.7 million people[15] Factors Influencing Growth - The contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth is expected to increase, with annual growth rates projected at around 2% under baseline conditions and up to 3% in optimistic scenarios[20] - The decline in capital and labor contributions will necessitate a greater reliance on TFP as the main driver of economic growth[20] - The average annual growth rate of labor productivity is estimated to be around 5.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, supported by technological advancements and improvements in labor quality[33] Policy Recommendations - To mitigate the decline in potential growth rates, it is recommended to enhance TFP through increased R&D investment and market-oriented reforms[39] - Expanding domestic effective demand is crucial to align actual economic growth with potential growth rates, addressing the negative output gap[41] - A balanced approach to investment and consumption is necessary, focusing on emerging industries and consumer sectors to stimulate economic activity[43]