"反内卷"专家电话会：氨纶行业拐点何时出现？ 20250827 摘要 氨纶市场需求稳定扩张，户外、瑜伽、防晒服饰等领域需求持续增长， 下游设备如金边、大圆机等小幅增长，国内新增产能转移国外，整体需 求保持稳定增长。 国内氨纶头部企业如华峰等虽有新增产能，但投放节奏谨慎。徕卡宁夏 3 万吨工厂预计 9 月投产影响有限，韩国泰光 3 万吨产能 9 月停产，部 分厂家已提出涨价 500-1,000 元。 沿海地区氨纶老厂受环保和成本压力面临关闭或转移，预计年底至明年 上半年将有更多企业退出。浙江中小企业成本压力大，停产后恢复生产 成本高，退出可能性增加。 2025 年氨纶新增产能有限，仅恒升新增 5 万吨，小新宁夏工厂释放 3 万吨，华峰等企业设备调试中。2026 年小新计划增加 3.6 万吨产能， 但嘉兴和珠海工厂减产抵消部分增量。 氨纶行业龙头企业在重庆规划 15 万吨项目，2025 年计划投产 5 万吨， 剩余部分 2026 年投产。预计年底至明年上半年市场将退出 5-8 万吨产 能，为头部企业提供更多空间。 Q&A 目前没有明确退出计划，但浙江一些企业运营非常挣扎。例如一些厂家刚复产 几个月，又因成本压力面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spandex industry in China is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing demand in various sectors, particularly in textiles and medical applications, while facing challenges related to pricing and supply-demand dynamics [1][12][20]. Industry Overview - Spandex, known for its exceptional elasticity and durability, is widely used in textiles, medical supplies, and industrial applications. Its production is primarily based on polyurethane, with a notable elongation rate of 500%-800% and over 95% recovery [2][4]. - The Chinese spandex industry is characterized by a concentrated midstream sector, with leading companies like Huafeng Chemical holding nearly 80% of the market share [4][16]. Production and Capacity - China's spandex production capacity is projected to increase from 950,000 tons in 2020 to 1,380,000 tons by 2024, with an annual growth rate of 9.78% [10][12]. - By 2025, the total production capacity is expected to exceed 1,440,000 tons, further solidifying China's position as the largest global producer [10][21]. Demand and Consumption - The demand for spandex is anticipated to maintain an annual growth rate of over 7%, driven by sectors such as sportswear and medical textiles, with functional and high-end applications gaining traction [20][22]. - The textile and apparel sector accounts for over 70% of spandex consumption, with rapid growth in sportswear and underwear segments [1][6]. Pricing Trends - The spandex market has seen a cumulative price decline of 19.11% in 2024, with expectations of a fluctuating price trend in 2025 [14][20]. - Current market conditions reflect a lack of cost support and pronounced supply-demand conflicts, limiting upward price movement [14]. Competitive Landscape - The spandex industry in China is marked by a concentration of leading players, with the top three companies holding a market share of 57% as of 2024 [16][20]. - Smaller companies are increasingly focusing on differentiated products and transitioning towards sustainable practices to remain competitive [16][18]. Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to shift towards structural optimization, innovation-driven growth, and green development, with a focus on high-quality production and technological advancements [20][23]. - Key trends include a slowdown in capacity expansion, a rise in demand for high-end and functional products, and a transition towards low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing processes [21][22][23].